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An utterly fantastic thread. Only have a computer at work and having been off for a few days just spent hour and a half enjoying all 12 pages. Informative, balanced and for the most part non-personal. Congratulations everyone.
My view is there is some skullduggery afoot but as a punter this can be factored into calculations, so in effect its essential for a decent price. It would be a boring old sport if the best horse won every race or all handicappers dead-heated.
I actually started the O’Regan thread referred to earlier and I’m quite happy to admit he may not have jumped off.
It is not skulduggery that allows outsiders to win.
If you take a look at a big handicap, for example the Grand National.
If there are 30 horses who start at bigger than 20/1, at an average price of 33/1 (2.94%). Let’s say the bookies are adding on average 1.25% as their mark up for these 30 "outsiders". So 2.94% – 1.25% = 1.69%. So the average of these 30 runners has 1.69% chance of winning the race. But all those put together (30 x 1.69) is 50.7%.
So the chance of a horse winning at 20/1 or bigger in this particicular Grand National is around 50% (Evens).
So skulduggery does not equal outsiders winning.
Mark
Percentage PoliceValue Is EverythingBut surely Mark, without skullduggery, every fit and well mile handicapper running on its ground , to its mark, given a good ride and likes straight tracks would dead heat in the Hunt Cup.
But surely Mark, without skullduggery, every fit and well mile handicapper running on its ground , to its mark, given a good ride and likes straight tracks would dead heat in the Hunt Cup.
What about whether the trainer is in form? Draw? is the horse in form? Is it temperamental? Does it run well off a long lay off / run well coming back quickly? Sweating? Good or bad in his coat, spooks in the paddock, wearing different headgear? Will the race be run at a pace to suit?
We do not know if it is fit and well do we? There does not need to be any skulduggery for a horse to run below form, even in ideal conditions.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is Everything
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I have to say, bucketnut, that’s the daftest thing I’ve read on here in some time. You’ve given five variables yourself, and they don’t even account for current form, trainer form and draw.
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Have scientists produced anything that can tell if a horse is fit or not when on the racecourse. How about stepometers around a horse on the gallop, surely with thorough testing that they would be able to come up with what an unfit horse averages to an extremly fit horse over a certain trip and this info can be interprited into figures which can be put on the form cards?
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Okay; now it’s a competition!
Good one Reet.
Mr. Wilson, that was a tongue in cheek comment, wasn’t it?
Mark
Value Is Everythingbucketnut wrote:
But surely Mark, without skullduggery, every fit and well mile handicapper running on its ground , to its mark, given a good ride and likes straight tracks would dead heat in the Hunt Cup.Other than the obvious which has already been covered OR’s or any other ratings are never going to be that accurate because for a start they only represent collateral form which apart from anything else does not even have to be over the same distance
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:lol:
Good one Reet.
Mr. Wilson, that was a tongue in cheek comment, wasn’t it?
Mark
Yes you are dribbling over your cossak…….I have on several occasions known jockeys who stopped horse and had bookies lay them for them……I am talking about being right there with them when it happened but it is far and few between.
As a very famous jockey trainer once told me "It’s not stopping a horse it’s having one that’s good enough to stop"
Are you prepared to name names and did you report this to the relevant authorities at the time?
are you some kind of fookin idiot or what? silly mofo!!!!
No way was the horse stopped Sean.
If a jockey wants to stop a horse, especially on the flat the easiest way is to tuck him in behind and just make sure he doesn’t see any daylight. They stick him up another horses backside that’s going backwards rather than forward andwhen they do give them some daylight it’s way too late.
It’s very difficult for the Stewards to say anything more than the jockey gave it a bad ride and provinghe stopped it is very difficult.
Just blatantly not trying on a horse who is obviously travelling well will get you in jail quicker than you can say Jack Flash…..It doesn’t take a genius to look at a race and know when your horse is going well.
Sometimes a jockey who isn’t too busy will flap his elbows like wings and even smack fresh air when he’s not off…….I could mention one northern jockey attached to a stable in the borders who was so bad at it we used to laugh and wonder why the stewards never spotted it….the trainer was warned off at one point so enough said.
Winston did none of the above…..the leader/winner was cantering up front and he was behind having to ride for his life. The most likely reason was he simply didn’t like the surface…I have no idea what the vet said but doubt if he was unsound as it was immediatlly he came out the stalls he was in trouble.
The fact he drifted could simply be the owner, trainer or jockey voiced their opinion that the horse might not act on the surface and word got around.
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from a earlier reply i also want to say i am not saying all owners and trainers are corrupt but what i am saying stopping horses by some people does happen i know for a fact that is all im saying.
kj
Fine, if you know for a fact that it is happening then name names, or tell the Racing Authorities.
There’s a lot of bluster from certain parties on this thread but precious little substance.
Rob
i like my kneecaps thankyou
- Total Posts 158
No way was the horse stopped Sean.
If a jockey wants to stop a horse, especially on the flat the easiest way is to tuck him in behind and just make sure he doesn’t see any daylight. They stick him up another horses backside that’s going backwards rather than forward andwhen they do give them some daylight it’s way too late.
It’s very difficult for the Stewards to say anything more than the jockey gave it a bad ride and provinghe stopped it is very difficult.
Just blatantly not trying on a horse who is obviously travelling well will get you in jail quicker than you can say Jack Flash…..It doesn’t take a genius to look at a race and know when your horse is going well.
Sometimes a jockey who isn’t too busy will flap his elbows like wings and even smack fresh air when he’s not off…….I could mention one northern jockey attached to a stable in the borders who was so bad at it we used to laugh and wonder why the stewards never spotted it….the trainer was warned off at one point so enough said.
Winston did none of the above…..the leader/winner was cantering up front and he was behind having to ride for his life. The most likely reason was he simply didn’t like the surface…I have no idea what the vet said but doubt if he was unsound as it was immediatlly he came out the stalls he was in trouble.
The fact he drifted could simply be the owner, trainer or jockey voiced their opinion that the horse might not act on the surface and word got around.
it was reported by the trainer and vet that the horse was distressed and had a irregular heart beat.. swinbank is a very shrewed trainer he is also a punter as he used to bet with the owner of a betting shop i used to work in, i remember one day he phoned the shop 3 minutes before his horse PEARSON GLENN was about to run and told the owner of the shop who he had a good relationship at the time "get as much money on this horse as you can it wont get beat", the horse won and has never won a flat race since. this was back in 2002. i havent seen the race so cant comment if there was something going on but nothing would surprise me with him.
Yes you are dribbling over your cossak…….I have on several occasions known jockeys who stopped horse and had bookies lay them for them……I am talking about being right there with them when it happened but it is far and few between.
As a very famous jockey trainer once told me "It’s not stopping a horse it’s having one that’s good enough to stop"
Are you prepared to name names and did you report this to the relevant authorities at the time?
are you some kind of fookin idiot or what? silly mofo!!!!
Easy Tiger! Or was that a rhetorical question?
I wonder if Pearson Glenn was drug tested as not all winning horses are in this country.
Not sure if my information about Australian horseracing is correct (perhaps someone could affirm) but I think they routinely test all winning horses; trainers have to hand in written riding instructions before the race; and if not followed there is an inquiry with jockey/trainer. I believe prize money is better too.
To clarify the point regarding Dope Testing, according to the BHA website the procedure for testing horses is as follows:
Horses are selected for dope testing by the Racecourse Stewards, usually on account of their performance in a race (e.g. a beaten short-priced favourite, a long-priced winner), but the Stewards have the power to test any horse as they see fit.
Once selected, they are escorted away from the unsaddling area and taken to the dope-testing unit where they are identified from their passport and/or microchip and examined by a Veterinary Officer.After being washed down, the horse is put into one of the dope testing unit’s stables until a urine sample can be provided. In the event of a horse being unable to provide a urine sample, a blood test may be taken. Urine is preferable however, as substances are much more easily identified in urine than they are in blood. Samples are taken by Veterinary Technicians, split into an A and B sample, and then safely packaged for transfer to the Horseracing Forensic Laboratory in Newmarket.
At the lab, the B sample is stored in a freezer in case it is required to confirm a positive test of an A sample. As soon as the A sample is confirmed as negative, the B sample is disposed of.
If a prohibited substance is found, connections of the horse are notified and the B sample is sent to another approved lab (around the world) for counter analysis.
If this B sample is also positive, the Security Department look into the source of the substance and the test ends up at a Disciplinary Panel hearing, with the horse being disqualified from the race and the trainer fined.
Most positive samples do have straightforward explanations and usually relate to stable error or veterinary treatments being administered too close to a race. Another interesting case was in the 2002/3 jumps season when there was a rash of positives traced to morphine found in a contaminated batch of feed.
The number of positives in British Racing remains low by comparison with most racing countries.
The horse or horses(s) selected for testing can often be seen circling the paddock until they are ready to produce a sample. In my experience this happens to the winners in the great majority of races.
Interestingly further down…
Retrospective Testing
The British Horseracing Authority has the facility to freeze a selection of samples collected as part of the routine dope testing of horses. This enables samples to be tested retrospectively as and when the Horseracing Forensic Laboratory develops new or improved ways of detecting prohibited substances. Samples from all types of racing, from Group 1 race days to regular mid-week meetings, are being frozen.
There is no evidence or intelligence to suggest there is a problem with undetected drug abuse at present but by giving ourselves the option to test frozen samples retrospectively we establish a stronger deterrent for now and the future and increase the confidence of the public in the sport and the sport’s commitment to integrity.Test records given as as follows:
2004 2005 2006 2007
Number of Runners 92761 94659 94610 93719
Samples Analysed 8816 8758 9086 9035
Positives confirmed 11 9 21 7
% of tests proving +ve 0.13 0.10 0.23 0.08Table formatting is c**p, but you can probably understand it!
Those figures equate as near as damn it to one horse per race.
The BHA also periodically (about once a month) select a trainer to be visited and all horses in the yard are tested.
The ‘Why They Ran Badly’ section of the BHA website makes reference to those cases where the Stewards ‘considered the running’ of a horse and where a routine test was ordered.
This section of the BHA site along with the Stewards Enquiry details are well worth reading.
Incidentally, am I only the only one who reads the Notice Board at the racecourse for details of Enquiries?
Rob
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