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Turning Hype To Your Advantage

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  • #931
    dandan
    Member
    • Total Posts 199

    (I’m in a similar position to Aranalde re: the journalism thing. Wrote this and have posted it elsewhere, but thought I’d put it up here for you good folk to slate!)

    Turning hype to your advantage

    I’ve been obsessed with national hunt racing for around five years now. I really don’t know how long that is in relative terms, but it is at least long enough to know your arse from your elbow when it comes to punting related issues. Each new season brings with it a growing sense of familiarity, which serves to endear one to the sport still further. No need to recycle some faux epic rhetoric praising our battle-hardened heroes who return year upon year in search of glory- if you get racing, you’ll get what I mean.

    For this avid racing nut, the Cheltenham festival quickly became essential to that familiarity. Always one to enjoy a great sporting centrepiece, I had resolved to take a few days out annually to enjoy events from Prestbury Park almost as soon as Rooster Booster had crossed the line to win the Champion Hurdle on day one of the 2003 festival. Twelve months on when Hardy Eustace outstayed the grey to deny him a second hurdling crown, I realised there was no such thing as a festival good thing.

    Which leads me nicely to the subject at hand. The 2007 festival is around the corner and the “good thingâ€ÂÂ

    #42135
    DannyDanny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    I agree with what your saying about Denman and Aran Concerto but not with Detroit City.

    I find Denman a ridiculously short price at 7/4 especially as there are alot of top class horses still left in the field including My Way De Solzenat 10/1 could be a great bet but we can’t be certain which race he will run in, Calin Alain and Dom Dorgeval will definetly challange and Knowhere 33/1 and Cloudy Lane 66/1 could be good e.w bets.

    <br>For a novice race Aran Concerto is to short at 2/1 especially as his nearest market rivals are 8/1 and for that reason only i will be taking Aran Concerto on.

    Think Detroit City could be a nap in the champion hurdle looks a pretty poor race and looks between Detroit City, Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace with Macs Joy putting in a poor performance last time out and others such as Asian Maze, Harchibald and Straw Bear looking unlikely to have enough quality to win Detroit City could be a cert.<br>

    #42136
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    As a piece of journalism I’m afraid it leaves plenty to be desired. You don’t actually give any solid reasons for opposing horses other than just hunches. Couple of factual problems as well. Lennon won’t be in the Sun Alliance Chase and it is Barber’s co-owner Harry Findlay that has backed the horse to win ‘telephone numbers.’ Phrases like ‘the value of the form is questionable’ tell us nothing. Why is it questionable? Were the races slowly run, was he bullying inferior opposition, did his rivals not stay? Your piece needs to make a case for why we should be wanting to lay them after reading your article and I’m afraid it doesn’t.

    If Detrioit City is a lay, why do you think that Brave Inca et al will beat him. It isn’t enough  to tell us you are ‘convinced’.

    #42138
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    I haven’t read most of the article as yet, but thought the ‘if you know racing, you’ll know what I mean’ comment to be a little too segregative.

    Much like the Grand National, the Cheltenham Festival attracts the attention of people who wouldn’t, necessarily, go racing, or even have a bet. It provides them with an opportunity to risk a couple of quid and to experience one of the biggest sporting events in the UK calendar.

    If I were a non-racing fan, I’d have flicked over the page already.

    Edited…..

    Having now read a little further, I would tend to agree with davidjohnson in that arguments have little to support them. You state quite categorically that the form of Denman and Aran Concerto isn’t worth much at all, but don’t bolster that view with any sort of foundation. Why isn’t Denman’s victory over Don’t Push It very good? Why was he not impressive last time out? Why is Aran Concerto’s destruction of a smart hurdler in Footy Facts so easily dismissed?

    These are the sorts of questions you need to ask yourself before you can consider any article complete.

    Always think about your audience.

    (Edited by LetsGetRacing at 8:16 pm on Feb. 27, 2007)

    #42140
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Denman is a very good horse and his record speaks for itself. But he has never jumped a fence at Cheltenham. And all his wins have come in small fields.

    Didn’t Denman beat Don’t Push it….at Cheltenham?

    #42142
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Haven’t quite got the hang of the quote feature yet.

    #42143
    cheltboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 129

    I skimmed your article. If you talk about being a journalist I am not sure where to start.For the record,   Paul Barber is the joint owner of Denman.  Its should read it’s.  It’s been raining heavily in Cheltenham for much fo the day and it”s likely to e soft or good to soft on the day.

    Having said that, I agree one of the short priced priced favs will be turned over.  I suspect it will be BJK.

    #42145
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Mounty it is

    and then [/quote ] – obviously not space after the e either!

    #42146
    dave 22
    Member
    • Total Posts 339

    I agree regarding Denman. He has been impressive over fences so far this season, but he was impressive over hurdles last season before being beaten at the festival, and he was many peoples banker. <br>Im not saying he is a plodder, but i think something will have more pace up the hill. <br>I think my way de solzen could beat all of them, but he is unlikey to run. Cailin Alainn looked to be going well enough when falling last time, and i would be more confident of her chances, especially with her mares allowance. Boychuk is another i fancy in the race. Beat Gungado, ran well last time, goes well fresh and seems full of stamina.

    Aran Concerto is the lay of the festival. Is yet to run in a race with a proper pace, and i think it will travel well before finding very little.

    Detroit city is very interesting to me. Im convinced he is the next ‘good thing’. At the end of last season people said he didnt have the pace for 2 miles, yet he has out sprinted hardy eustace. His trainer didnt think he would cut it at the top level, yet he has so far this year. <br>He seems to pull out enough each time to win, with Richard Johnson convinced he can find more if something comes at him. <br>His form is pretty solid too. Macs Joy, Asian Maze Iktitaf, and Harchibald are not in good enough form to win. Straw Bear couldnt claw back Detroit City even after he nibbled the Sandown turf!!, he has already beaten Hardy Eustace, and Brave Inca has been beaten, fairly, by him. <br>The champion hurdle seems quite straight forward to me because a line can be drawn through the form, whereas in the 2 novice events the horses have not taken each other on as much. <br>Im sure if i have missed anything, or got anything wrong you will let me know!!<br>

    #42149
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Surely the sub-title to this thread should read……."a little piece what I wrote";)

    Colin

    #42150
    dandan
    Member
    • Total Posts 199

    Nice one colin :)

    Cheers for the replies, all points taken with good grace!

    #42155
    dave 22
    Member
    • Total Posts 339

    grass hopper, they crawled for a mile and a half, then sprinted. not sure what race you watched!

    #42156
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    To be a worthwhile article it needs to suggest an angle that isnt obvious. look at Nick Maudlin’s weekender piece this week. he writes about three lays and whetehr you agree with them or not (i dont) he gives strong reasoning which is not necessarily obvious from a routine perusal of the form book.

    It was good stuff

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