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No market yet, but usual strong entry here…..
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/193/navan/2020-11-08/770342
Not surprisingly, more than a few jumping out…
Milan Native – Really big fancy of mine for Aintree, and any hopes I had for him being a potential Graded Horse, we’re quickly put to bed by Minella Indo yesterday. Questionable whether he’ll back out so soon after that. I think he’s a very nice horse, but perhaps they’ll look to trim a few pounds off now before the spring.
Death Duty – A long time sine he got his head in front, but they’re persevering with him, and with another preseason into him, I’d expect him to be back close to the level he was at before his setback. Holds an entry for Down Royal on Saturday, so that’s maybe the priority, but he catches my eye here. I’d prefer to see him back up in trip, and he’s chucked in if he is back to near his best.
Spyglass Hill – Pulled up the last twice, but had his excuses, particularly at Listowel. Market support was noted there, and I’m convinced he has a race of this stature in him.
Fitzhenry – Second in this last year, and fresh from a “quiet” spin over hurdles the other day. He’s weighted to repeat last years effort. A solid, consistent, likeable type, who has the look of an each way banker about him.
Ten Ten – Course form, and he’s been on my radar since his Navan win last year. The entry for The WKD Hurdle this weekend puts me off beforehand though, and not an Antepost proposition. Interesting horse this season.
Aforementioned – Big enough hike for his Munster National win, but he was impressive enough, and he’s certainly going the right way.
Minella Times – Had him in mind for this since his win here in The Foxrock last season, and he looks a big player. Hardly hammered for his win in The Southampton Plate, and he’s hard to pick holes in.
Scoir Mear – Absolutely hacked up at Wexford at the weekend, having caught the eye in The Munster National, and he should improve again for the step back up in trip. Hard to predict, but big player if in the mood.
Walk Away – Subject of significant support in The Munster National, and hadn’t been asked a question when he tipped up. Promising type who represents last years winning connections, and expected to be bang there.
Portmore Lough – 3rd in this last year, and showed he’s as good as ever, when chafing home Aforementioned at Limerick. When he stands up, he’s very good, and he has to be given a live chance here. On nice mark.
At The Acorn – He’s better judged on his run at The Dublin Festival last year, rather than his recent quiet runs over hurdles. I thought he’d be ideal for The Paddy Power Chase over Christmas, but equally interesting here, with a couple of spins over hurdles under his belt. Proper dark horse here.
General Principle – Doesn’t have the best of records in this, my pockets will confirm that, and he’s perhaps not one to catch first time out. However, he’s survived another Gigginstown cull, and he’s incredibly well treated, considering some of his efforts in the past. Maybe one for later in the season, but he’s on a great mark. I could be tempted on the day with maximum EW places.
The Jam Man – Rarely seen over the larger obstacles, but an eyecatching entry if nothing else. The ability is certainly there.
Mr Diablo – He’s got his work cut out to scrape in, but has a big chance if he does. Proved he’s as good as ever at Galway in The Summer, and placed in this two years back, he’s not to be underestimated.
Real tough one then, and that lots just scratching the surface. I’m glad it’s not priced up yet, as I could bet any of them.
Gun to my head, and forced to pick one, then maybe Fitzhenry, but I’d be happy with most of the above, and I’ll hold off as long as possible. I’ll certainly be watching the market though, once formed.
I’ll miss being there this year, but this is still one of my favourite races.
I like two of those that you mentioned. I think that at this stage I’ll be betting Walk Away, though Fitzhenry really does have a nice ew look about him.
I also like Elwood, and I’ll definitely be betting him if he runs.
Elliott and Gigginstown seem to hold a strong hand in this. Aforementioned is on a roll and Elwood might be well in. Fizhenry could go well again,I backed him twice last season including in this, Flemensfirth’s are 0 from 14 in this race though. Minella Times is interesting, he’s an Oscar who are 0 from 9 in this race however. Don’t know how significant Sire trends will be for this year’s race but thought I’d let you know.
Aforementioned would require a 7lb claimer again I feel. And then if Jack Kennedy chooses Elwood amongst the others then I got the race sussed. Haha.
The one that interests me and looks sure to run is Brace Yourself. He’s had a fairly in + out career so far, threatening to look a good horse before throwing in a few howlers. Meade’s local track, he had the winner in 18 and has had a fair few placed. Looked decent chase reappearance and then also when behind Paken’s Rock over 2m2. He jumped a couple iffy that day and i hope a step up in trip will help his jumping. He’s quite inexperienced over fences, but i suppose 4 chases and a point is hopefully enough. He was sitting in 4th when falling at Leopardstown in a hot beginners last year, not sure to have troubled the front 2 (Easy game and Allaho), but worth considering the likes of Choungaya 137 + Walk Away 136) were 4th and 5th. So his run could have been potentially decent. Walk Away went off a well punted 3/1 in the Munster National.
Handles all ground and being 2nd in a point suggests the 3mile should be within his range.14/1
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!You’re in the same boat as me Jack, I’ll be with Brace Yourself as well. Only if he is declared though, I’m not going early.
I will also cover Aforementioned if he goes.
Am I the only one who gets the Noddy theme song in their head whenever they see this thread title?
Discordantly has been targeted at this and was given a lovely reappearance ride which should have helped his confidence. He made some mistakes last year but jumped well at Galway which is not easy.
The last two winners of this did not disgrace themselves in the JNwine-that-was and I think he may be a similar type. I hope the forecast showers arrive on Sunday morning to keep the ease in the ground.Well, after Meade stating Brace Yourself was his Troytown runner he’s no longer a runner! Back to the drawing board.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Moyhenna 14-1 ew 6 places is my pick. The 7lb claimer on board clinched it for me as it means an 18lb turnaround on the winner and 15lb turnaround on the runner up from last time. Whatever happens on Sunday i can’t ignore them numbers
.Plan of Attack was very poor in The Kerry National, but I think that he’s the type to bounce back.
Scoir Mear was the opposite, and was very impressive last time, and I think that he looked good enough to cope with the rise in the weights.
I’ll bet them both over the weekend, with both around 12-1, 14-1 at the moment.
I’ve changed my mind so many times over this race, and the simplest solution seems to be to rule them all out, and have a bit of fun.
I think I’d rather bet The Jam Man at 25’s for Haydock, while the Gigginstown pair of Elwood and Aforementioned could both be very good, but I can’t split em. The JP pair of Portmore Lough and Fitzhenry are impossible to leave out either, so it goes without saying that it looks an impossible decision.
In the end I’ve had one fairly sensible Win Bet, and one fairly sensible EW Bet. Scoir Mear was so good the last time, and if in the same mood, I’m not sure the rise in the weights will stop him, while Mr Diablo looks a smashing EW Bet, based on his run in The Galway Blazer, and previous efforts in this. I’ve had a few pounds on him tonight, with a view to adding more.
This will be a smaller betting Troytown for me, as I just don’t have a strong fancy at all.
Scoir Mear 16’s
Mr Diablo 50’s EW 6 PlacesI am all over Fitzhenry for this @ 13’s & 10/1 EW – big time.
He might be on a mark preservation mission but then he only found Chris’s Dream too good in this last year and that form was thoroughly franked in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase. Chris’s Dream was a seriously well handicapped horse and Fitzhenry finished way clear of the the rest of field last year.
I am convinced Fitzhenry is ahead of his mark and for me he’s an each way bet to nothing. His form in big field races is ridiculously consistent and his spin over hurdles recently should have him ready for this.
He’s been knocking on the door of a big win and today is it hopefully.
Moyhenna on the drift a bit. Which means I might get a bigger odds winner.
Overnight rain as well. Even better.I can’t bet on others. Too many of them could place which means some won’t if you catch my drift.
Charlie you love Fitzhenry don’t you haha.
The two i am on are Forza Milan and Mormon.
Forza’s hard to catch right and is still a maiden over fences but he has some form i think is strong, beating the likes of Elwood and Ronald Pump when behind Carefully Selected. His second to Castlebawn West also resulted in him have Milan Native and School Boy Hours in behind. Obviously beating those two is not to be taken literally, but there’s enough there to show he’s a useful horse.
He has been short enough in the market the last twice and ran poorly both times. Sort of hoping this has been the plan, but he’s only dropped 1 pound. For all Nash’s overall strike rate is low, he’s certainly a shrewd trainer and place them well. He’s been on the improve in recent years, and it’s also nice to see Gavin Brouder claiming 7. When partnering Nash over fences, he’s 24 runs, 4 wins, 4 seconds 5 thirds and 4 fourths. 17 of the 24 in first 4!Mormon is interesting as he has form with Elwood and ones 33s vs 10s. He ran well that day, but his jumping was inconsistent, that’s a massive worry here i won’t lie, but his hurdle form entitles him to have a fair chance here if putting his best foot forward. It’s his first time stepping up past 2m5 over fences and i think that could unlock extra, with 8 runs in total he’s unexposed.
The Jam Man is well in and has won on softer ground, but it’s always possible he’s just better over hurdles. Yes he’s won over fences easy, but at Southwell + Cartmel. Anyway i can leave him at that price.
Portmore Lough needs to get round first so for me 13/2 is rank.
Elwood has some decent form, and given he’s with Elliot he’ll know where he stands and probably is a danger, but he’s not obvious to me.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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