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Its now Friday, and I believe our friend Mr Segal is offering his Champion Hurdle selection on Tuesday. To give you all the weekend to finalise your next choice, he is the list so far. I’ve upped Tom’s selection to a 2pt win to fit in line with our stakes also.
BLUNKETT – Quel Esprit, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes.
VENTURE TO COGNAC – Quito De La Roque, 1pt e/w @ 33/1, generally.
THE HORSES MOUTH – Quito De La Roque, 1pt e/w @ 33/1, generally.
ZARKAVA – Captain Chris, 1pt e/w @ 20/1, generally.
EURO – Captain Chris, 1pt e/w @ 20/1, generally.
KASPAROV – Captain Chris, 1pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes. (From your most recent post).
HGH – Synchronised, 1pt e/w, 12/1, generally.
STEEPLECHASING – Weird Al, 1pt e/w, 25/1, VC
BOZLIKE – Synchronised, 1pt e/w, 12/1, generally.
ROOSTERBOOSTER – Kauto Star, 2pts 9/2, Boyles
PANTS – Weird Al, 1pt e/w, 25/1, VC
PRICEWISE – Captain Chris, 2pts, 20/1 generally.
As for the Champion Hurdle itself? I don’t trust Hurricane Fly, and the value has gone for many of his rivals.
Last year’s Triumph looks to be outstanding, but the first 3 from the race all now trade @ 10/1 or shorter with Zarkander still to reappear. Spirit Son still not sighted although there are positive reports from the stable.
With this in mind, my selection is Rock On Ruby. Although he was beaten by Binocular LTO, Cheltenham may suit him better than Kempton and he has already shown a liking for the course.
IF Hurricane Fly doesn’t make it, then the race is wide open imo.
ROCK ON RUBY, 1pt e/w @ 12s with Hills.
I’ve been nibbling away at Rock On Ruby for 6 months now, so I’ll follow you in Blunkett.
1pt ew 12’s Bet Victor
The whole race revolves around the participation of Hurricane Fly. If he runs I think the others are running for second place. However, it would be a braver man than I to back him ante-post, having been previously stung when backing him @ 9/2 for the Supreme Novices.
I’m not a fan of the form of Grandouet’s Bula win, although I have no doubt he would have been further ahead of Overturn if he’d had something better to aim at.
Spirit Son is one who I’d see as a big danger to the Fly, but I’d like to have seen him out by now. Surely a run is on the cards soon, but I doubt it will be in the AIG Champion Hurdle. If he comes out and wins handsomely, he could go off around 5/1, but I doubt he’ll be any shorter, depending on what he comes up against of course.
Zarkandar is another yet to be seen this season but the form of his Triumph win has been done no harm with Unaccompanied and Grandouet winning big races since. He’s too short for me at 7 or 8/1 considering he’s yet to have a run.
Unaccompanied herself was very good winning the Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. She’s definitely on an upward curve but she found Zarkandar too good last year and she’s likely to find one or two too good for her again this year.
In my opinion had Thousand Stars been given a more aggressive ride he’d have beaten Unaccompanied that day. He was only getting going at the finish of that race and the way a Champion Hurdle will be run will see him reverse that form. However, he’ll probably only run here if stable companion Hurricane Fly doesn’t, and is more likely to tackle Big Bucks in the World Hurdle.
I don’t think Binocular or Rock On Ruby will win this race. Binocular was impressive winning this two years ago but this looks a much hotter race imo as that won kind of fell apart due to fact Solwhit was a sick horse and Go Native broke down. Rock On Ruby’s a very likable horse who I thought was a shade unlucky in the Christmas Hurdle. He missed the last and Binocular seized the initiative in what was a cracking finish. Rock On Ruby was only just touched off by First Lieutenant in the Neptune but I fear he may not be quick enough here.
OSCARS WELL looked like winning that Neptune before paddling through the last. Puppy Power could hardly hold him in the Neptune and that suggests a strongly run 2 miles around there is probably his ideal conditions. He was put in his place by Thousand Stars at Punchestown earlier this season but a lot of Jessica Harrington’s were slow to come to themselves this season, and his last run behind Unaccompanied and Thousand Stars was much better. If he comes on again from that he’ll be a major player come March.
Oscars Well
1 pt each-way
25/1 generallyBit of a late comer, but will go for…
GC – 1 pt ew Weird Al 25/1 VC
CH – 1 pt ew Rock on Ruby 12/1 GeneralI love Hurricane Fly. He is my favourite horse out there and is a beautiful animal. If he wasn’t as injury prone as he is, I think we would have been talking about him as one of the all time greats. His supposed setback this year has me concerned though. He has always bounced back from injury superbly in the past, however this year is a massively competitive Champion Hurdle. At his current price I don’t think he represents value, especially considering we don’t know how he’ll fair in the Irish equivalent. If he wins, we know he’ll be a lot shorter.
My pick may sound hypocritical considering what I’ve mentioned about a horse without a run. I really fancy SPIRIT SON. He’s not run this year and that may be a concern, but Henderon’s been roaring about him at home, and I believe this is a true Champion Hurdler.
Spirit Son 2 point win@8/1 general
difficulty race to find the value left here, likes of Spirit Son / Zarkander could shorten up if they impress on their re-appearances. Hurricane Fly will probably win IF it gets there which is probably about a 2/1 chance to line up tbh so he isnt an option of an ante post punt. Ive been very impresed with Grandouet this season but he is short enough also.
One i am going for is Binocular, been there done it before, looked a bit like him oldself last time out. the 10/1 with Skybet/bluesq, i think is the value pick at the moment, with doubts surrounding a few ahead of him in the market.
Looks a real good race this year
Champion Hurdle 1pt EW Binocular 10/1
Its now Friday, and I believe our friend Mr Segal is offering his Champion Hurdle selection on Tuesday. To give you all the weekend to finalise your next choice, he is the list so far. I’ve upped Tom’s selection to a 2pt win to fit in line with our stakes also.
BLUNKETT – Quel Esprit, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes.
VENTURE TO COGNAC – Quito De La Roque, 1pt e/w @ 33/1, generally.
THE HORSES MOUTH – Quito De La Roque, 1pt e/w @ 33/1, generally.
ZARKAVA – Captain Chris, 1pt e/w @ 20/1, generally.
EURO – Captain Chris, 1pt e/w @ 20/1, generally.
KASPAROV – Captain Chris, 1pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes. (From your most recent post).
HGH – Synchronised, 1pt e/w, 12/1, generally.
STEEPLECHASING – Weird Al, 1pt e/w, 25/1, VC
BOZLIKE – Synchronised, 1pt e/w, 12/1, generally.
ROOSTERBOOSTER – Kauto Star, 2pts 9/2, Boyles
PANTS – Weird Al, 1pt e/w, 25/1, VC
PRICEWISE – Captain Chris, 2pts, 20/1 generally.
Apologies, thought i’d included mine.
Boring, but Long Run, 2pts, 11-4 CoralOk well Oscar’s Wells is Pricewise at 25/1 but I’m going for 2pts Hurricane Fly 9/4.
I presume his thinking is based on last years Neptune and that Oscars Well would have beaten Rock On Ruby, which is now 10-1.
Does anyone think there’s a chance of Zarkandar going for the Ascot Gold Cup ?
Nicky says Spirit Son could be very special but has yet to prove on the track he’s come on from last year so I will stick with young Granduoet who has definitely done so and his style of running to my mind makes him the biggest danger to Hurricane Fly.
Grandouet 7/1 1pt ew Generally
I presume his thinking is based on last years Neptune and that Oscars Well would have beaten Rock On Ruby, which is now 10-1.
Does anyone think there’s a chance of Zarkandar going for the Ascot Gold Cup ?
I hope for the sake of his Champion Hurdle supporters he wouldn’t get the trip in the horse ambulance. Last thing you want in the champion Hurdle is a stayer.
Royal Gait was rare winner of the Champion Hurdle that stayed extreme trips on the flat, Sea Pigeon as far as I can remember never ventured that far in trip. Anyway he was one special horse and Zakander has a long way to go before you could even think about comparing them. Alderbrook and Kribensis were flat horses who’s trips were middle distance types.
The Champion Hurdle is more about speed than Stamina and almost always has been. Celestial Halo went close but Punjabi who never raced beyond 12f did him for toe as would Binocular have done in another stride or 2.
Hurricane Fly won at 7f and 8f but failed at 9f and 10f on the flat.
Hardy Eustace was beaten out of sight when he tried 2m on the flat, Sublimity’s best trip on the flat was debatable but probably 8f, Brave Inca never ran on the flat as far as I know neither did Rooster Booster and although Istabraq did win over 1m6f and 1m7f he failed at 2 miles and was very moderate on the flat.
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