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Looking like only a handful will go to post with Simonsig obviously a warm favourite and rightly so. Arvika doesn’t appeal on better ground going left handed, Fago was a decent price but now gone due to being Pricewise.
I’ll take a chance Overturn can get Simonsig out of his comfort zone and put him under pressure like he hasn’t had in recent runs and maybe force an error unlikely but I don’t think Overturn should be more than 5 times the price of Simonsig.
Overturn, 2 point win (various)
Hardly original but 2pts win Simonsig 4/5 (BET365 / Laddies, think the price is still pretty fair considering lack of credible opposition, and likley small field with horses being routed to Jewsons
think its the stick on of the festival, will get nice lead from Overturn for 1.5miles and then kick on from there win by long way (IMO)
5/6 available with Corals and Betfred.
Looking like only a handful will go to post with Simonsig obviously a warm favourite and rightly so. Arvika doesn’t appeal on better ground going left handed,
Despite both appreciating better ground and winning left handed ?
I’m going to take an extra couple of days over this if i can. Simonsig is nap material but it’s less than 4 points.
Looking like only a handful will go to post with Simonsig obviously a warm favourite and rightly so. Arvika doesn’t appeal on better ground going left handed,
Despite both appreciating better ground and winning left handed ?
He’s won left handed but nobody could argue that his best performances have come going right handed and he started to show a tendancy to jump out to the right the time before last.
Quicker ground would be an unknown too.
Lee
Couldn’t pick at odds on 6 weeks in advance, so has to be the proven class horse who can also jump….
2pt win Overturn 5/1 general
Looking like only a handful will go to post with Simonsig obviously a warm favourite and rightly so. Arvika doesn’t appeal on better ground going left handed,
Despite both appreciating better ground and winning left handed ?
I’m going to take an extra couple of days over this if i can. Simonsig is nap material but it’s less than 4 points.
He has won left handed granted but I think he’s better right handed and undeniably has jumped to the right last two runs, beaten 27 lengths on last visit to Cheltenham although trip (only time gone 24f) may well have been a factor. Just not a Cheltenham horse in my opinion.
I don’t think he’s overly ground dependent but would certainly be inconvenienced less by soft or heavy than some of the other market leaders i.e. Overturn.
ARVIKA LIGEONEIRE 10/1 EW nothing beats SIMONSIG
and world hurdle is so open i go for
SMAD PLACE 20/1 EW
ARVIKA LIGEONEIRE 10/1 EW nothing beats SIMONSIG
and world hurdle is so open i go for
SMAD PLACE 20/1 EW
Thought you were a ‘win only’ backer Darren?
The Arkle – usually my favourite race of the festival, a load of 2 mile Novices haring it about like lunatics! This years renewal doesnt appear to be the best, in fact like others have already stated we could be down to the smallest field ever due to the star Simonsig AND becuase of Jewson to fall back on!
Relistically the favourite only needs to stand up to win, IMO.
Overturn looks a better chaser than Peddlers but i cant see him getting the fav off the bit.
Fago is obviously unexposed, howover, my general feeling is that he’ll be better over further in time. If his second run over here happens to be winning an Arkle then we’re looking at some horse!
The Irish dont look particulary strong in this division. Oscars Well cant stand up and im not totally convinced by Arvika.
I’m keeping it simple.
Simonsig 2pt WIN @ 17/20 (Sporting Life)
ARVIKA LIGEONEIRE 10/1 EW nothing beats SIMONSIG
and world hurdle is so open i go for
SMAD PLACE 20/1 EW
Thought you were a ‘win only’ backer Darren?
I am mate got Arvika at 20/1 to win but after fall and his jumping out to the right has put me off him now though on Simonsig at 4s to win too.
World hurdle is so open it is so that why gone for a price like Smad Place
The lads talking about the Arkle on Racing Post TV and talking about soft ground being against the favourite
They saw it smash Hinterland by 30 odd lengths on heavy ground, yeah ?
The Arkle looks to revolve around the three at the top of the market:
Simonsig
,
Overturn
and
Arvika Ligeonniere
. If
Aupcharlie
were to run he’d be interesting but the Jewson seems a more likely target for him.
I’m sweet enough on
Arvika Ligeonniere
(surprise surprise). I think there has been too much made of his jumping when in actual fact the horse is by and large a very good jumper. Let’s take a look at his record over fences. In his beginners chase, he was exceptional, looked a complete natural and jumped for fun. In the Drinmore it was more of the same. He has the athleticism to really stand off a fence and have a cut at one. Then, alarm bells started ringing when he ran down a few of his fences to his right at Leopardstown. I must admit this somewhat puzzles me still as at the weekend he looked to be jumping very straight before his exit. However, he hasn’t done it before or since so I’m willing to forgive him. In the race where he fell, he soared over them all until he came to the fourth last, flicked through the top of it and it was a case of a landing gear failure rather than a proper fall imo.
I remember a few years ago when Big Zeb was slated time and time again for falling as a novice. He was brain dead when he had to get in close and as such fell time and time again. But when he met them right he was exceptional. My point is that he learned from his mistakes and in his pomp there were not many better jumpers around (see Tied Cottage defeat to Golden Silver).
The facts of the matter is this: after two chase runs his jumping was regarded as his main asset, however he has now ran down a couple of fences and had a novicey fall and all of a sudden it’s reason to avoid him? I think not. I think he’s as good a jumper as I’ve seen in the 2 mile novice ranks this season and I hope he shows it at Cheltenham. Hopefully he’ll learn a lot from his error.
If one wanted to play devil’s advocate one could argue that
Simonsig
‘s jumping is a bigger cause for concern. He’s a quick jumper but he has thus far shown a tendency to drag his hind legs through a fence, a bit like Captain Cee Bee used to. How do we know how well this method of jumping will stand up to the trials and tribulations of a fast run Arkle? Of course, this is quite a critical take on it but of the two I’ve been more impressed by Arvika’s jumping to be honest.
Overturn
has done nothing wrong but he was always a touch below the very best over hurdles and I feel there may be one or two better than him here. However, you’re fairly sure to get a run for your money with him and anything that beats him will know they’ve had a race.
ARKLE
Arvika Ligeonniere 2pts win @ 10/1 (Sporting Bet)
As there are still selections coming in for the Arkle and only 1 (from what I can see) selection for the World Hurdle I must point out that there were 2 Pricewise features this week. The normal Tuesday edition which focused on the Arkle and a Thursday one that covered the World Hurdle (Segal put up Solwhit @ 16s).
My arkle one is already in so to carry on my tradition of selecting a different horse to my ante post bets I’ll plump for
Oscar Whisky 2pts win @ 5/1 (various)
I just feel that the better ground and increased confidence in his ability to see out the trip may enable him to turn around the form with my orginal fancy Reve De Sivola.
I had a speculative punt on Tidal Bay with Betfair @ 28s as soon as the Big Buck’s injury was announced but I can’t help but think they’ll send him for the Gold Cup now instead (hence he was my competition choice).
Lee
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