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tricky race this year with so little seen of most of the protaganists, and with weather they way it is unlikley to see much more of them prior the festival unless its running round KEmpton or Lingfield in a bumper.
Have always like Grandouet but would have much prefered him to get another run in (due to run on Saturday at Donny if its on)
Hurricane Fly has looked good this year but really disappointed at festival last year busting mine and im sure many others roll ups with Big Bucks, Sprinter Sacre and Quevaga.
Oscar Whiskey would have a great chance if it runs, but cant see Henderson running him with Darlan and Binocular in the frame.
Zarakander not for me, looks little flat footed at times in his races and cant get away with that at Cheltenham.
Rock on Ruby, think his win was a one off last year.
My pick tentativly Grandouet 7/1 2pt win, will be backing it myself prior to weekend if it is on, if he wins well there, will be into joing favourite.
thanks
Looks a quality renewal of the Champion Hurdle with the past 4 winners entered.
Hurricane Fly
sets the standard imo. His win record is on a different level to the rest of the field. If he’s at his best he’ll blow them away imo. I think if the race was run at Punchestown or Leopardstown he’d win doing handstands and I just have a nagging doubt in my mind that Cheltenham’s not his track. that being said, I still think he’s got the best chance of winning, but I don’t think he’ll be much shorter than 7/2 on the day.
Zarkander
and
Grandouet
are the two big dangers to the favourite imo. At the start of the season I nominated Grandouet as my Champion Hurdle horse but Zarkander has impressed me a lot. He reminds me a bit of Solwhit or Peddlers Cross at their best, very hard horses to pass. Grandouet is the speed to Zarkander’s stamina. He travels like a dream and will be held on to for a late run. Imo wherever one finishes the other won’t be far away.
I couldn’t have
Darlan
at all. I don’t rate the form of last year’s Supreme at all well. Of the five who finished in a heap he’s the only one to run with any merit since. Cinders And Ashes has been poor since. Trifolium has been rancid since. Prospect Wells received a stone and a half and a beating from Zarkander, while Montbazon hasn’t been seen since. The only formline that ties last year’s novices to older brigade is that Zarkander – Prospect Wells form. Darlan essentially beat other Supreme and Triumph Hurdle horses in the Christmas Hurdle and until he proves himself against the experienced hurdlers I’ll be against him. I’d prefer
Binocular
of the McManus pair.
Rock On Ruby
obviously deserves a mention. He won last year’s race really well and his running style means he can be put anywhere in the race imo. If it’s a fast run race he can drop in mid div and let his stamina come in to play, while if it’s slowly run he can lead himself, no problem. If in the same form as last year he sets a reasonable benchmark, although I doubt he’ll win again.
On the basis of what I have written above, some will find it peculiar that my selection is a horse who ran in last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle. The fact I’m selecting him has a lot to do with his price, which is too big in comparison to the others form that race imo. Also, if trainer comments are to be trusted, he looks a definite runner all being well. The horse in question is
STEPS TO FREEDOM
. He ran no race in last year’s Supreme and was beaten in Punchestown since, but he is obviously still held in high regard and if he runs he’ll be half the price he is now. I don’t expect him to win it, but he may well outrun his current odds.
Champion Hurdle
Steps To Freedom
1pt e/w @ 66/1 generallyGood analysis THM, I agree with you re. Last years supreme form and don’t think Darlan represents any value (well done to those who have backed him at bigger odds). Think it’s a bit of a bridle horse personally, and I don’t think Cheltenham will suit. For a token each way shout I’d nominate the NTD pair Khyber Kim or Ransom Note, the former having good form in this race and at the track and the latter a classy recruit from the flat. Still sticking with CAA though as think he comes alive in the Spring (and the better ground).
Good analysis THM, I agree with you re. Last years supreme form and don’t think Darlan represents any value (well done to those who have backed him at bigger odds). Think it’s a bit of a bridle horse personally, and I don’t think Cheltenham will suit. For a token each way shout I’d nominate the NTD pair Khyber Kim or Ransom Note, the former having good form in this race and at the track and the latter a classy recruit from the flat. Still sticking with CAA though as think he comes alive in the Spring (and the better ground).
Despite a 1st and staying on 2nd in two runs
I’ve steered clear as the Christmas Hurdle winners have done little in the Champion
Good analysis THM, I agree with you re. Last years supreme form and don’t think Darlan represents any value (well done to those who have backed him at bigger odds). Think it’s a bit of a bridle horse personally, and I don’t think Cheltenham will suit. For a token each way shout I’d nominate the NTD pair Khyber Kim or Ransom Note, the former having good form in this race and at the track and the latter a classy recruit from the flat. Still sticking with CAA though as think he comes alive in the Spring (and the better ground).
Despite a 1st and staying on 2nd in two runs
I’ve steered clear as the Christmas Hurdle winners have done little in the Champion
He beat a 25/1 shot by a nose in a class 3 at 4/6 and then came second in what looked a pretty poor Supreme last year. Think he’s better on a flatter track IMO.
He beat a 25/1 shot by a nose in a class 3 at 4/6 and then came second in what looked a pretty poor Supreme last year. Think he’s better on a flatter track IMO.
His first run at Cheltenham led me to completely rule him out of last years’ Supreme. It appeared he just didn’t get the hill at the time. However, he faced a lot of trouble in running at the festival and stayed on well to grab second, showing that either the first run was merely a poor showing, or that he’d strengthened up considerably in a short space of time. The latter option is more than feasible, I’ve noticed a lot of Henderson’s have done the same on their return visit to Prestbury over the last few years.
You could be right Rich, we’ll find out in March. All part of the intrigue of what looks to be a cracking renewal
Indeed, I may be wrong, no doubting he’s a good horse, but this is a hot race and he may be found wanting in the closing stages. I think he would be a very good thing at Aintree in April where he could gallop them into submission.
Some race this, just hope all the big guns line up! I have backed Darlan at 12’s, 10’s and in a juicy Christmas Hurdle/Champion Double at 18’s. everytime i watch that Newbury race i think to myself, what IF and HOW far!!?
Will be intersted to see who AP rides here as i do believe Binny has another BIG race in him, as a favourite of mine i’d love to see it, maybe at the expense of the above!!
1pt EW Binocular 20/1 (various)
Good analysis THM, I agree with you re. Last years supreme form and don’t think Darlan represents any value (well done to those who have backed him at bigger odds). Think it’s a bit of a bridle horse personally, and I don’t think Cheltenham will suit. For a token each way shout I’d nominate the NTD pair Khyber Kim or Ransom Note, the former having good form in this race and at the track and the latter a classy recruit from the flat. Still sticking with CAA though as think he comes alive in the Spring (and the better ground).
Despite a 1st and staying on 2nd in two runs
I’ve steered clear as the Christmas Hurdle winners have done little in the Champion
He beat a 25/1 shot by a nose in a class 3 at 4/6 and then came second in what looked a pretty poor Supreme last year. Think he’s better on a flatter track IMO.
He’s 1-2 at Cheltenham though so it must suit him at least a bit !!!
And Khyber Kim is back with Henderson
Strange race this as I think Simonsig will hose up but have already taken the e/w about Overturn a few weeks back.
But considering there is 6 weeks to go there is no ante-post value in the front two now, Arvika Legionniere’s jumping seems to be going slightly downhill, Oscars Well disappointed over the weekend and his conqueror hadn’t looked anything special prior to that. Captain Conan IMO will definitely run in the Jewson – although I couldn’t see him winning this even if he did turn up.
That leaves Fago as the unexposed horse and while he’s also entered for the Jewson Nicholls doesn’t have anything else of note for the Arkle so I’ll also take the 12s that he’s Arkle bound.
And as it is a novice chase and therefore anything could happen to the favourite, I’ll go for the win.
Fago 2 pts win (various).
Lee
Hardly original but 2pts win Simonsig 4/5 (BET365 / Laddies, think the price is still pretty fair considering lack of credible opposition, and likley small field with horses being routed to Jewsons
think its the stick on of the festival, will get nice lead from Overturn for 1.5miles and then kick on from there win by long way (IMO)
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