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Jackane, it seems you are missing the point.
You cannot disagree with trends – they are statistical facts. You can however disagree with either their relevance or how to interpret the trend.
By giving cogent reasons why all 4 of the horses can win you are simply stating what is already known.
The idea of a trend is that it helps you narrow your options – it’s not to tell you which horse will win.
An example – i’m in love (metaphorically speaking) with Hardy Eustace. He has ensured a winning Cheltenham for me 2 of the last 3 years. I was ready to lump on, by my own mediocre standards, had he run 1st or 2nd in the Red Mills. Indeed, had he been declared a runner I probably would have backed him before the Red Mills.
He didnt’ run which, if you follow this trend, means he’s highly unlikely to win the Ch Hdl.
I’m not saying that these horse CANNOT win, I’m saying that they are fools gold.
To really get to the root of the trend, one would have to research more deeply than I have. But my suspicion is that there are 2 main reasons why a horse didn’t come 1st or 2nd lto.
1) The horse simply wasn’t good enough<br>2) The horse was injured or not sufficiently fit
Hardy Eustace and Moscow Flyer fall into the 2nd category with Acc Etoile and Our Ben the latter.
What I must now decide with HE and MF is whether or not a trainer is capable of getting the horse back to the requisite fitness etc for Cheltenham.
With HE i think there’s a chance but that is not fully reflected in his price.
With MF i think JH has a monster job, the horse will have not run for quite some time so I think is likely to be too fresh and furthermore he’s 12 and so will have deteriorated sufficiently imo for him not to be a factor and frankly his price is abysmal.
With Our Ben and Acc Etoile, I think their last races demonstrate that neither of them are good enough.
Our Ben was beaten by Father Matt and The Railwayman. Father Matt’s no better than a good handicapper so, imo, drags the form down. Sure he’ll be better over further but you are guessing how much.
Acc Etoile – I’ve said all I need to about this one elsewhere.
I don’t say these horses will not win – it’s simply a way of narrowing my options. It has worked for me in past so I will continue to use it
Ok, that’s a really good post from you. if you had written that at the start, it would have been fine. Keep posting and keep it cool!!!
but you are only in love with hardy metaphorically!?!?!?!? I’m in love with Monet’s Garden (well publicised by me). Maybe we should have a double date???
Monet’s Garden is my only real worry if it runs in the Arkle.
I was banking on Mr Richards taking it to Aintree, hence I have dived on Darkness for the RSA and RD for the Arkle.
In any event my match bet with Carvills should see me ok ( I look ok with egg on my face!!) if MG grinds RD down on the hill to the line!
Yeah, i just read that thread. i would be interested in MT was your pick. But now NRNB has begun, i’m gonna be doing loads, but probably only about a quarter of the cash bet I had planned to do. I just REALLY want to bash the bookies at chelts and take a brown paper envelope stuffed with notes.
Quote: from Slooch Arm on 9:54 am on Feb. 23, 2006[br]To really get to the root of the trend, one would have to research more deeply than I have. But my suspicion is that there are 2 main reasons why a horse didn’t come 1st or 2nd lto.
1) The horse simply wasn’t good enough<br>2) The horse was injured or not sufficiently fit
Hardy Eustace and Moscow Flyer fall into the 2nd category with Acc Etoile and Our Ben the latter.
I presume you mean "former" rather than "latter". Doesn’t make sense otherwise.
Do you not think conditions unsuitable is not an excuse for a poor showing??? 1st or 2nd is a very narrow gap if a top of the ground horse is running on soft. Ie. Acc Et, Azamour
Yes, it could well be a valid excuse but what trainer is going to run a horse on unsuitable ground in its final prep for cheltenham? Not many, I reckon. So this reason/excuse should not come up very often.
This is why the trend holds up imo.
For what it’s worth I don’t think litening to trainers about favoured ground is a fruitful line of enquiry. Most trainers are simply not interested in punters. I would only ever look at the form book.
AE came 2nd to Central House on Yeilding but beat Tamarinbleu on Gd/Sft, is there really a great deal of difference? I don’t think so.
I’ve tried to think of all the scenarios that fook this trend up but the truth is you can think of plenty but when you think about how likely the scenario is in reality it is usually highly unlikely.
Yeah, but quite often, the ground is difficult to judge and the official description is clearly wrong. Just look at Epsom last year at the derby. Good to firm??? No way. Good to soft at worst and good at best. <br>And that cheltenham ground when lingo and Acc Et won i’m sure was genuine good, no way good to soft.
I think sometimes lack of choice and a certain of window of opportunity is why trainers run their horses on unsuitable conditions.
Ie. Acc Et only had 1 run before last week. He needed another run to blow the cobwebs away. And about 30-40 days or roughly before Cheltenham is perfect IMO. That’s way I assume Kauto Star was not declared for the rescheduled Game Spirit, because it was too close to Cheltenham. If he needed 10 weeks to recover from the Tingle Creek, then i think it’s doubtful he’d recover if he ran in the Game Spirit, 25 days before the QM.
I know RD was withdrawn loads of times by Hen Knight, but i think the eventual race he ran in was perfect, similarly with Acc Et in the 2m chase, which is why he went on the unsuitable conditions. And how often do you get good ground in ireland???
When I spoke to Graham Lee after No Refuge ran, I asked about the trip and how he felt, and he said that while he doesn’t think he’ll get the trip, he needed the run after only having the one run at Windsor in mid-Nov.
Are you saying that Graham Lee actually told you No Refuge wouldn’t/didn’t stay 3 miles?
Just thought an update was in order here chaps.
MF clearly will not be one of the horses that beats this stat. His gallop yesterday was so good that he’s been a big exchange drifter since. People seem to be getting wise at last.
Our Ben’s scooling was interesting. Under no pressure at all the horse jumped right at every single fence and also tried to take one home with him. His right jumping is consistent at every fence and he’s not going to be troubling the trends backers.
Accordion Etoile backers should be worried about the horses ability to jump slickly anyway but that weather forecast doesn’t look for this one. Any cut at all and this just makes his chances even slimmer than they already are.
Hardy…………how you feeling? I reckon you’re the only possibility of breaking trends backers hearts – I may even have a few bob on ya meslf. The Inca is no cert in my book.
I am absolutely amazed – The Sky’s the Limit is favourite and being backed for the Coral Cup.
55 5yo have tried and 55 have failed. One of the 55 got in the frame and thats it!
I suppose this trend is also as useful as the colour of the jockey’s silks………………
You can stick this one on my list as well – it cannot win! If you don’t beleive me.read the book!
Strange one that about No Refuge as Graham Lee is widely reported to have told Howard Johnson immediately after the Cleeve Hurdle that he was just got tired, and that he thought he’d get the trip on good ground.
I can’t see why he wouldn’t get the trip on good ground. He was going away over 2m5 last year, and is a year older now.
We’ll see I guess …
Slooch …that is genuinely an interesting stat. I would like to see his weight on the day. I suppose it has to be said though that these modern day ex-frenchies have considerably more experience then the previous type of British or Irish horses. Still a trend worth noting though.
SHL
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