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I noticed about mid january that Caracciola (2nd in the Cesarewitch) was being backed quite heavily for this race (33s into 14s and 16s) and i suspected it may be connections cash, as despite amaretto rose looking like the henderson stable first string, carraciola was the one getting all the money, then all of a sudden amaretto rose was pulled out the other day, which was very interesting indeed.
Then today the owner issues a very bullish report in the Racing Post, (all but saying the horse is going to win), stating that he has been working really well, has targetted the race since the cesarewitch, and henderson has said that he wouldnt put anyone off backing him, and so Ive finally given in and backed the horse at 12-1. The market and the reports point to this horse putting in a very good run and I think his current 12-1 looks pretty good at the minute.
Five dream looks to have had two quite hard races in a row now and the last one was a week later than his scheduled prep run at the cancelled warwick card, so he’s effectively had two weeks to recover and get ready for this race, which looks fairly tough. I couldnt back him at 7/2
Palomar is also a nice horse but his trainers report on sunday sounded far from confident.
Has anyone else got any views on this race?
You’re having a bleedin’ laugh mate- if an eleven year old wins that I’ll pack the game in.
Does anyone know if Roman Villa made an abortive trip over to Scotland a few days ago or was scratched before leaving home?
Five Dream is improving with every run and I don’t think he’s going to be far away, but Mephisto and Palomar are the two against the field for me – 33/1 and 13/2 respectively will do just fine.
I agree that the 11yo issue is certainly a negative, but it depends on how heavily you weight that as a negative, to me he’s only 1 year older than whjen he was when placed fourth in this race last year (if punjabi stays in he should be 2lbs lighter aswell), he has since (on his last run) finished 2nd in the cesarewitch, with a better rating than detroit city when he won it the year before and the owner states that he has been targetting this race since then and is in tremendous form, theres a lot of money riding on him as hes the biggest gamble in the race, and the owner will surely be embsarassed after giving it such a good report if its well chinned.
There can only be one result, and I fully agree that his age is a negative, but to me the positives outweigh the amount of presidence I place on that one negative.
The antepost markets have already thrown up Barker and Sizing Europe so far this season, and this one too looks strongly fancied, I’ll probably do a couple of long each ways on saturday but think this one looks to have a good chance.
If the ground dries out, I’d fancy Roman Villa for this. Still looks on a winnable mark, touch of class and a trainer worth following.
If the ground dries out, I’d fancy Roman Villa for this. Still looks on a winnable mark, touch of class and a trainer worth following.
yeah he didnt have the ground he wanted in the Pierse Hurdle still ran a cracker was looking at him myself
Andy Turnell Blue Bajan worry about the Jockey but nice horse
Someone said novices don’t win this. Not the race it used to be and that stat can be thrown out the window IMO
LGR…I fancied Palomar myself until I noticed that he’d been raised from a clearly lenient mark of 110 to 132 following the win at Kempton. It will be a fine effort to defy a 22lbs rise in the weights, however well handcapped he was before.
"Can you see one of the novices from this lot winning a Champion Hurdle in a month’s time? "
Not without a medicinal compound that is most efficacious in every way.
Colin
Personally I think there’s worse shouts than Henderson’s seemingly-third choice Punjabi. Yes he’s get all the trends under the sun to swerve to win this but it looks like he’s been readied for this after his hardly-disgraceful reappearance in the Christmas Hurdle. He’s hardly got the worst claimer on board and at his current odds he’s a better each-way shout than most..
Palomar is also a nice horse but his trainers report on sunday sounded far from confident.
Has anyone else got any views on this race?
I have got other views on that trainers report. 30 mins ago I got a call from the UK and was told not to miss Palomar he will piss up.
Considering the person who called me is connected to the yard, very seldom risks his cash and has a massive EW bet on him I would ignore what was said.
Never heard him so excited about a horse in a long time so I am going along with this Palomar who incidentally I couldn’t tell you a thing about. A matter of trust on my past and if I look I might not back him.
Fists Logic: I just had a small bet on Andy Turnells so have to do the maths……if he wins how much do I get back? Stick that amount on Palomar and if he’s wrong and I’m right no harm done. If we are both wrong find the nearest river and jump in which will make TC very happy
……BTW TC hope your right about novices having no chance.If it’s going to ‘piss up’, why has he wasted half his stake on a place bet?
And for those worried about the use of Richard Hughes on Blue Bajan, how many other jockeys in the race have ridden a Champion Hurdle winner?
AP
Although Palomar has some decent form and had won impressively three times in a row, I’m not totally convinced he’s straightforward. I noted he was wearing a cross noseband and ear-plugs when winning at Kelso in November last year. His jumping was rather untidy at times, and may be put under pressure in a big field on Saturday.
Rob
This race is one of my favorites of the year and takes place at my favorite raccourse. Palomar’s 22lb hike up in the hcap ratings for his last win seems harsh imo and I think he’ll struggle to take this.
I always respect Nicky Henderson’s picks in this race and if anybody can win it with an 11yo then he can so Caracciola must have a chance. Blue Bajan’s inexperience puts me off backing him and he has clouted a few in his runs so far in novice company. I will probably be proved wrong but I don’t think that the form of Five Deam’s last win will prove to be that good.
My choice and therefore the one for everybody to avoid is Roman Villa who has looked like a progressive hurdler this season and the drying ground will be in his favor. Looks value ( if I’m still allowed to use that word
) at 15/1 imo.Good luck
Pete
Trends show patterns. And the pattern for the Totesport Trophy says in the past 10 years
Trends can be meaningless simple statistical quirks unless there is logic behind them. But this is a rough tough race and that naturally mitigates against an inexperienced horse. I wouldnt generally back novices in this
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