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I quite like the look of Roman Villa if the ground is around good to soft. I would also consider doing Mohayer for a place at 25/1+. Not far behind Five Dream LTO and as long as there is Soft in the ground description a real good chance of getting in the first 4. Of the novices the Twiston Davies duo would appeal most.
Yeh I’m firmly in the Roman Villa camp. 12/1 looks a very reasonable price. Only beaten 5 lengths in the Pierse last time on apparently unsuitable heavy ground. Good form at Cheltenham behind the well handicapped Jack the Giant who franked the form in the Ladbroke. 10 stone 7 and Timmy Murphy booked who’s riding style should suit the horse. Ground still drying out, he’s the one.
Any chance of some bookies paying the first 5 places? Usually happens on the day I think.
If it’s going to ‘piss up’, why has he wasted half his stake on a place bet?
And for those worried about the use of Richard Hughes on Blue Bajan, how many other jockeys in the race have ridden a Champion Hurdle winner?
AP
Just his way Ap the guy is ultra cautious but seldom wrong. Not a race you can gamble in with confidence as the great Fred Winter fans found out with Snowtown Boy. He was backed to win fortunes from about 12/1 to about fav. The day of the race David Barons and co won a fortune on Bootlaces who was a huge gamble. Those who backed Snowtown Boy at long odds showed a profit those who backed him win only lost the lot.
The race has a history of gambles and in those race only a fool wouldn’t cover his back no matter how good the info is.
Your point on Richard Hughes is agood one I am not really that worried someone said Andy was scraping the botton of the barrell but I am sure he’s booked him because he thinks his style of riding will suit.
be one helluva race that’s for sure.
I’ll make palomar my saftey tomorrow then, if you’ve heard something FoF, I always liked this horse and he was the first one I spotted that I liked when looking at the race, but his support has always looked very punterish and the sunday report put me off a bit, I dont like a trainer to complain about hikes in the weights.
I think mohayers second to five dream may make him look better than he is, i’ve followed the horse in the past and he has always looked really weak in a finish, which makes me wonder if five dream had improved when he ran at chelto, FD had missed his target prep the previous week, and nicholls has said today that he regrets running him at cheltenham.
I notice he’s the only one of the fancied horses reataining his price in the last 12 hours and everything else is drifting.
They have obviously put their money where thier mouths are and you can’t ask more than that.
If we go down they go down with us
Little Edit :- Hills now have him at 5’s keeps this up he might start fav.
I like the fact Palomar seems to stay a bit further than Blue Bajan. When a horse stays very well and wins as if he’s just going down to the start – even if it’s a tuppeny-ha’penny race, I like to think that, granted his apparent hurdling skill, there ‘s a connection, and it’ll stand him in good stead in cavalry charge like the Schweppes/Tote. But there are a lot of good hurdlers in there, aren’ there?
I like the way Mephisto won in a fast time "cheekily" and won the Ebor. And I remember people raving about Jayo when he won a race in a hack canter, and see there’s been a bit of money for him. I like both, because little is being said about them, and I’ve found it is often a good sign. As if there’s an unspoken wee conspiracy to keep the public on more conventional tracks.
The placepot man rates stray shot as the best each way, and he seems to have a similar chance to Mohayer, who also looks threatening.
Odd you should say that about Caracciola, Racing Forever, because he seems to be quicker than ever, if his flat form is a guide. He was beaten 3 /4 length by Leg Spinner, well entered for Cheltenham hurdles and said not long ago by Martin to be under consideration by him for the Champion Hurdle. Mephisto too is said to have that for his main objective in the latest issue of the Racing Post’s Jumpers to Follow.
Why are we talking about betting in such a race!!!! I suppose because we’re not machines, unlike some of our nags.
Already have Caracciola 12s backed for a really nice win and Palomar as my number 2.
Going to go 1pt e/w pigeon island 33-1 and pace shot 100-1
Looks like a nice race on paper with first 4 places open
Although Palomar has some decent form and had won impressively three times in a row, I’m not totally convinced he’s straightforward. I noted he was wearing a cross noseband and ear-plugs when winning at Kelso in November last year. His jumping was rather untidy at times, and may be put under pressure in a big field on Saturday.
Rob
I just watched that Kelso race Rob and they were going way to slow for him in that. Horse never really got into his stride as he was never out of second gear. He looked untidy but horses do when they are not in full stride and tend to balloon a few. I was more concerned about the way he handled himself on the run in and thought myself he might just have a chink in his armour and the jockey looked a little weak to me.
However he’s won very easily since and they think he’s real special but if they are wrong they still have a very nice horse on their hands.
Have backed Five Dream 4.8/1 (oops!) and Kings Quay 41/1 as main bets.
Also,
Punjabi, Fleet Street, Kings Revenge and County Zen as savers.Value Is EverythingThink Whispered Promises has a bit more to come from his last run though Carraciola could run a big race too.
Have backed Five Dream 4.8/1 (oops!) and Kings Quay 41/1 as main bets.
Also,
Punjabi, Fleet Street, Kings Revenge and County Zen as savers.Just the six then Ginge?
I can’t seem to get my head around the TGT this year. To me it seems far more open than normal, with loads of possiblities. Probably because I haven’t studied it enough! Wouldn’t dream of having a real bet in it, but for a bit of interest I’ll go with:
Blue Bajan from the classy unexposed angle (if he has really taken to hurdles, a mark of 128 could be ridiculously low) and…
Wingman from the tough, yard know what it takes to win a big hurdle angle (you can argue he is still unexposed as well. He’s ran well in a couple of handicap hurdles at Sandown, & being a few lengths behind Ring the Boss and Breedsbreeze may not be bad form. In fact you could make a debatable arguement that if Breedsbreeze was running he’d be favourite, & Wingman would be well in at the weights against him)Have backed Five Dream 4.8/1 (oops!) and Kings Quay 41/1 as main bets.
Also,
Punjabi, Fleet Street, Kings Revenge and County Zen as savers.Just the six then Ginge?
Love to know who laid you 41/1 about King’s Quay who was going to be my original bet. That must have been weeks and weeks ago and your a brave man if you backed King’s Quay. the owners wanted him to run in The Champion Hurdle and miss this. If the ground had been soft or worse today he would not have run
However John won them over and they have seen sense. He is expected to run a big race but good ground is what he needs to show his very best. I wouldn’t put you of him and would have bet him myself if I was sure this ground wasn’t on the softer side of good……….if it is his chances of winning will be greatly reduced..
If the ground is ok I would certainly want him in my first 4 though as he is fit and well and bursting to go.
Can’t believe you have backed 6 horses in one race….and left out the winner………. I hope
Love to know who laid you 41/1 about King’s Quay who was going to be my original bet. That must have been weeks and weeks ago and your a brave man if you backed King’s Quay. the owners wanted him to run in The Champion Hurdle and miss this. If the ground had been soft or worse today he would not have run
:King’s Quay has been traded on BF for decent money at odds of 49/1 during the last few days so maybe Ginger has missed out at only getting 41/1
Pete
I haven’t looked at the race too much, but County Zen beat Blue Bajan three quarters of a length off levels.
He is now giving the same opponent just 2lbs yet he is 20/1 while Blue Bajan is best priced 7/1. Country Zen goes on the ground, the trip will be fine and the course should hold no fears.
On that basis, 20/1 about County Zen compared to 7/1 about Blue Bajan looks good to me. I’ve had a small each way bet. Other than that, I don’t have any strong opinions on the race. Good luck to all.
Mike
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