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I don’t know about anyone else but this looks an ideal opportunity to oppose the early favourite for this race, who is Moon Racer at 11/4.
Other than what seemed like a desperate burst to try to get involved in the Champion Hurdle, the ex Bumper champion ran a very disappointing race, pulled up before three out. It hardly looked like a “Win next time run” and with the horse’s injury history, surely it’s suicide backing him at 11/4 for the Aintree race?
Nicky Henderson has the next two in the betting, with River Wylde 3/1 and Lough Derg Spirit 7/2. River Wylde ran well enough in the Supreme Novices behind Labaik, where his final flight blunder meant he was further remote from runner-up Melon than may otherwise have been. He still held off the slightly disappointing Ballyandy for third place. He’s readily preferred by me to Moon Racer here.
Lough Derg Spirit was a bit disappointing behind the subsequently very disappointing Capitaine before he floored the well fancied Peter The Mayo Man next time. He didn’t go to Cheltenham, which can sometime prove beneficial for Aintree runners based on previous years where the Festival seems to leave a mark on some of those who ran at the March meeting.
Despite being the fresher horse here, I prefer River Wylde’s form.
Henderson also has Divin Bere in the mix at 7/1 but he is also entered up against Defi Du Seuil in the Juvenile Hurdle, where he would seem up against it being just unable to win the Handicap at the Festival, much to my chagrin and financial cost. I think he has a bit to do in either race he lines up for.
Runaway winner last time Mount Mews split opinion and at 5/1 he sits in a position where neither bookies nor punters have firmly made there mind up yet. I have to say I don’t trust the form and his 12 lbs rise in the ratings. The ground and the small field that day put me off it panning out.
I reckon River Wylde isn’t far off 150 class and I feel he’s the best horse in this field. If he turns up I make him the one to beat here and will see how the odds shape as more firms quote the runners. For now, I would back him at 3/1 with Paddy Power as the best value in my opinion.
Top Novices Hurdle River Wylde 3/1 (Or better if/when becoming available)
“Hey Babe, Take a walk on the Wylde side”
“Wylde Thing, You make my heart sing”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I see The Unit carries two entries (the other a grade 3) but if he lines up here, I’d be willing to take a chance on him at 14s. He has done nothing but improve and was visually quite impressive LTO. His form behind Air Horse One looks pretty solid and even his last start had a little positive with the last home St Saviour winning next time out.
I’ve followed you on River Wylde Steve, I think NJH said before Cheltenham that he might be more suited to Aintree (LDS even more so which is why he didn’t run at Cheltenham…but I think RW’s Supreme run is pretty solid)
Moon Racer must be one of the most unbackable favourites of the season.
River Wylde is an OK horse but was thoroughly ironed-out at Cheltenham in a poor Supreme. Since Henderson’s horses usually run a notch of two below form at this meeting, I’m inclined to find something else. He’s nothing special.
Step forward Mount Mews – saved for this meeting by a trainer who does brilliantly at the track, showing high class form and running big speed figures up north this winter.
Moon Racer must be one of the most unbackable favourites of the season.
River Wylde is an OK horse but was thoroughly ironed-out at Cheltenham in a poor Supreme. Since Henderson’s horses usually run a notch of two below form at this meeting, I’m inclined to find something else. He’s nothing special.
Step forward Mount Mews – saved for this meeting by a trainer who does brilliantly at the track, showing high class form and running big speed figures up north this winter.
The ground is going to be the big worry for Mount Mews. There was an article stating that good ground is on the cards with dry, sunny weather forecast for Friday and it’s already on the good side at the track.
Mount Mews was rated 133 before his Kelso romp and with that being over 2m 2f on heavy, there is a big question in a 4 runner race where he may have been the only horse to run anything like his best.
The race Mount Mews won over shorter on better ground at Doncaster looked very weak at the time and it’s worked out pretty awfully with horses getting thumped further still in subsequent runs. For me, it’s just the one race that looks good enough to put Mount Mews in with a shout here, and the emphasis will be much more on speed this time.
I agree that the Supreme looks nothing special but it still seems the most reliable form on offer here.
Early market confidence seems to suggest River Wylde from the Henderson team is the one for them, with Lough Derg Spirit weak at 5/1 now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Mount Mews is closely related to good ground reveller Burton Port so I’d expect him to improve for a decent surface. It’s an easy oversight to make when looking at a northern-trained horse so I’ll let you off!
Mount Mews is closely related to good ground reveller Burton Port so I’d expect him to improve for a decent surface. It’s an easy oversight to make when looking at a northern-trained horse so I’ll let you off!
The fact remains that his best form, for now, by some margin, is on gutters. Racing is not always what can go on the ground but about those that cannot go on it.
The horse has a good strike rate but he’s been winning weak races for now. Time and again these horses who win by miles on bad ground prove overrated. Bristol De Mai was one example and Acapella Bourgeois another from this season. They flew up the rankings but couldn’t cut it at Cheltenham. I had the latter horse as an accident waiting to happen in the RSA, advising people to ignore his previous run when he pinched a lead. He won 32 lengths that day but was beaten 61 lengths behind Might Bite at Cheltenham.
Prognosis based on relatives can easily be misleading. It’s not an exact science. What has been done on the track is much more important in my opinion and based on his good ground form, Mount Mews needs a big improvement. I am not saying he can’t do it, just mentioning that it is required and citing examples where horses seemed to show big improvement on mud but then didn’t look anywhere near it on better going afterwards.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Moon Racer must be one of the most unbackable favourites of the season.
River Wylde is an OK horse but was thoroughly ironed-out at Cheltenham in a poor Supreme. Since Henderson’s horses usually run a notch of two below form at this meeting, I’m inclined to find something else. He’s nothing special.
Step forward Mount Mews – saved for this meeting by a trainer who does brilliantly at the track, showing high class form and running big speed figures up north this winter.
I really like your reasoning on your fancy Mount Mews LS3. Also coupled with the fact that the horse does nothing but give his all every time he runs and you say he has been saved for this race and the trainer does well at the track
All positives. Good luck and hope he wins.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Lough Derg Spirit is out of the race. I did wonder when I saw that he was not jocked up, whereas Nico De Boinville was shown as riding River Wylde,
River Wylde and Mount Mews are the ones for money. Moon Racer is given as a concern by Timeform after his last run and he isn’t in their 1-2-3 preview forecast. They opt for River Wylde, Mount Mews and The Unit in that order.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
River Wylde ran at Cheltenham pulling so hard he took most hurdles with his head cocked so much was De Boinville trying to hold him together and given his mistake at the last it was a very good effort, he is my bet of the meeting as the flat track (Kempton he won well) will be much more in his favour providing he settles just a little.
I think fi NDB can hold on to River Wylde for long enough his turn of foot will be decisive!
But at the price he may not be carrying my money LOL
I shall be having a bit each way on High Secret at 14/1 purely because I think he may be the value in the race and his flat rating isn’t bad
Moon Racer @ 9/2. If you forgive his last race it’s far too big.No way would they of entered him in the Champion if they thought he would not run well.
I’ll chance it with Mount Mews with a saver on Moon Racer in case of a resurgence. This horse has been mightily impressive of late and I don’t think River Wylde is exceptional albeit he is the deserved favourite.
Moon Racer.
On a strict line through Ballyandy there’s nothing between him and River Wylde, although Ballyandy was unlucky not to be closer at Cheltenham. I’ll take a chance Moon Racer is ready after not having a race there.
Good luck everyone.
Moon Racer is out to 6/1 and that is a massive, and worrying, drift. He’s totally friendless in the market.
The owner explained before the Champion Hurdle that it was unknown territory and that they were going there because they were concerned the horse was fragile and may never get another chance to run in the race. To use betting shop parlance it was a “S**t or bust” move.
Through the Ballyandy line there may not be a lot in it but who is to say Moon Racer can run to that form now, after the Cheltenham debacle?
River Wylde would arguably be better suited by this track than the former Champion Bumper winner and the ground could suit Henderson’s horse today. The trainer has chosen to rely on the one horse in his quest for prize money.
Mount Mews is respected but I worry about his last race on trip and ground fronts. There were some abysmal efforts from his rivals that day and he probably has to come on again from his last run. He was a bit of value at 5/1 earlier in the week but he’s too tight now in my opinion.
Good luck everyone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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