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Must admit that is interesting Salselon. Hes seemingly the forgotten horse in the race and is trading at 43’s on betfair
Was there any reason put forward for his last awful performance though? Although busy throughout summer, he had had a six week break before that run
Still, at that price….
Regarding Katchit, I’m sure on another topic someone posted that he’s not been quite right, whatever that means on his last couple of runs. If this is true and he has improvement in him, he should get closer to Osana, as he was conceding 4lbs when beaten 8 lengths. He might not have the class of a typical CH winner, but he seemed to improve with the more racing he did last season and he is a Cheltenham specialist, so I wouldn’t totally discard him yet. If only I knew what the person with the inside knowledge knew!
Katchit certainly isnt out of the picture
Its odd that he has become a horse that is being sneered at in some quarters. The most laughable assertion being that because he has been beaten in one all aged grade one race, then he clearly isnt up to standard
Brave Inca was defeated in his first SIX all aged grade ones
clivex
You wrote
"Katchit certainly isnt out of the picture"
I think for winning the CH it is. I don’t think there is a previous years Triumph Hurdle winner who has won a Grade 1 the following season in the last 15 years with the exception of maybe Paddys Return who won over 3M. In fact I don’t think too many of them have won a Grade 1 hurdle ever again.
You also wrote
"Brave Inca was defeated in his first SIX all aged grade ones"
I think this reinforces the fact it is very difficult to win a Grade 1 the year after being a novice. Only two previous winners have done it in the last 15 years I think, Istabraq & Hardy Eustace who both won the 2M5F race in their novice years. With the greatest of respect I don’t Katchit will be joining their club.
Sublimity obviously managed the feat of winning first season out of Novicing last year and I firmly believe he has been fully fit twice in his life over hurdles and both times have been in the month of March. If he’s fully fit this March I think he will win again, but that is a big IF.
I’m in the Sublimity camp. Until he blew up first time out at Cheltenham, I’ve seen the race a few times and he travelled brilliantly to the point his fitness gave way. If the ground is good, which it invariably is at the festival, he has the best turn of foot in the race. I can’t imagine the trainer won’t have him right for his biggest race of the year.
Of the rest, forget Al Eile. Katchit looks booked for a place at best. Harchibald cannot be confidently backed. Straw Bear is by his trainer’s admission a few pounds off being a champion hurdler.
Osana and Sizing Europe are the other two that interest me. Both relatively unexposed and impressed on their last runs. For a race which seemed dead in the water a few months ago, it’s actually turning out to look a competitive race, one that should be well worth watching.
Possibly true but the triumph is a different race now. the old big field scrum maybe bottomed out some decent performers in the past
Afsoun was pretty close up last year and hasnt been a world beater this season. An example of one that was better first year out of novice company than second ??
and like Brave inca in his first season out of novice company, he doesnt have to make a huge amount of improvement to be right there. Who knows when or if that will happen? With the course perfect for him and probably the run of the race not to mention his attitude up the hill, those factors alone could be enough
Hes not my bet (i have him at good odds AP) for the day now, but hes definately not out of it
Just wondered whether it was shortage of space that prevented the Racing Post letting everyone know Pricewise had already tipped up Confront for today’s race?
After which it promptly drifts like a barge…hope the arb merchants get skinned (Glenn?)
Didn’t our Tom recommend backing Henrythenavigator ante post for today’s race immediately after his debut win?
I wonder if he did, whether he got anything like 11/1, and whether he had torn up his ticket last autumn?
Didn’t our Tom recommend backing Henrythenavigator ante post for today’s race immediately after his debut win?
I can assure you that if he did it will command an 8-page pull-out in tomorrow’s Racing Post!
If he does he doesnt have it on his list of 2000 guineas tips on the Racing Post site, only Confront and Jupiter Pluvius.
I have a feeling it was a throw away comment in The Weekender or something, but it was mentioned on here in jest. He didn’t mention what price to back it at or anything.
A scan through here shows that he was as short as 7/1 ante-post in places last May!
A scan through here shows that he was as short as 7/1 ante-post in places last May!
Now I do recall that a thread exists on TRF somewhere discussing whether or not such a price was too short so long in advance of the Guineas itself. I’m far too lazy to uncover it, however.
And they say you should never take SP!
/ 
A hopeless performance by Tom on a flagship day. Ran around like a blue arsed fly getting the 4s Ravens Pass, only to find that it was unarbable when I got back – I had to lock in a £3.42 loss, I was distraught. Then he goes and tips some 40s poke at a bookie with no high street presence – what use is that to anyone? How are you supposed to arb it?
He should get back to tipping up some arbable jollies.
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