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3.40 Lareena 8.2s 1point Not often i back the favs in these races but back down in trip on better ground should see her to better effect, ill also have Apparition 15s 1 point Could be about a stone well in if running to full effect over hurdles.
4.20 Bon papa 7.2s 1 point Again another shorter priced one, his form figures read 111 over this trip and on better ground i think theres some juice in that price, the gordon elliot sunsetstorise is off an extremely low weight could have more improvement, but a bit short in the betting on form.
5.30 1/2 point e/w bapaume @ 66/1 This horse interests me going forward, i was hoping hed run in the stayers at cheltenham, his best performance this season is over this trip, not to far behind supasundae and ill be quite disappointed if he doesnt show more today on better ground. Ill also have Penhill 5 points @ 3.2 Won that stayers with plenty left in the tank and was reportedly in need of the run, obviously fitter than mullins thought, but if theres any improvement from that run and he doesnt “bounce” hes a solid fav.
6.05 Folsom blue 2 points @ 10/1should be shorter than this, hurdles form with glenloe/weights swing, he should be half the price he is.
6.40 Saturnas 8/1 W/O footpad 1 point
A few mentions 7.15 cut the mustard at 7s? Towenend deserting the fav? Thought hed definitely be on glens and the 7.45 i think castlebawn west is over priced at 8/1, will probably update tomorrow and back him if he drifts out a bit more, being one of the lesser fancied of mullins it might jjst go double figures.
Good luck, ill definitely be needing it!
-29 points
Just going through it all now….on Cut the Mustard, are you siding with her because of townend or thinking he’s made the wrong decision??
I thought Glens H was a bet myself
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Just puts me off slightly he hasnt chose GH, gets the decision wrong in handicaps often but thats to be expected, im always wary when the fav is deserted for something else in a listed/graded race… they get the decision wrong less often at this level, thats ultimately why ive left the race alone.
On the plus side if you like glens, you Should now get a better price tomorrow once CTM tightens up.
1 point coquins mans @ 23s Will definitely be topping up if hes declare
Adding another 2 points e/w coquin mans 20/1 To the above.
-33 points
I know what you mean Ham. Mullins comments in RP would put you off a touch, but to be honest i thought she looked a very good mare. Not sure i can say the same for the others of his in the race. That might not be enough of course.
Coquin Mans is an interesting one. I see him being forced out in front to force a real pace to suit Melon.
Personally can’t see past Samcro for the win, as i think the pace CM will force won’t be enough for Melon and he will nto see his race out as well.
Very surprised not to see Mick Jazz in the race. If he was, he’d have a nice chance of placing IMO.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Brutal few days so far, plenty placed, and personally i dont mind to much losing out with penhill, as i cheered faugheen home lol, Just the one bet tomorrow, coquin mans as said above!
Shocking day for me too. As you say tho, Faugheen made it all better!
Today is terrible, not having a bet at the moment.
Have heard a squeak or two for faheys in the bumper…but we all know how they end up!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Faheys ran a great race in the bumper, think he could be decent.
Merie devie over 2m4 today and twomey in bumper my two darks, good luck Ham.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Was a quiet day for me jack, i dont mind a bad run and i tend to tone it down when i keep placing rather than winning! Good shout with meri devie, wouldnt have backed her myself, low sun ran a cracker again after 3rd run in a short space of time
One bet tomorrow, i have to take cracksman on as is my usual play for such short priced runners after layoffs cloth of stars would be the obvious choice as his sheema run was pretty solid, hard to imagine rhododendron wont be atleast 90%, a fan of her, she will be on my shortlist going forward hoping for a nice comeback run
im going to go with 1 point e/w on finche @ 33/1
-35 points
Even though it’s the end of the season NH-wise pretty much- anything catch your eye going forward?
I thought Fontley House, in Friday’s bumper was pretty taking. Probably not the strongest of bumpers, but as it was his first run, he stuck to the task well after i thought he looked like his chance had gone.
Kemboy, given 156 pretty much means he has to take the step back into graded company, i think he’s up to it, and knowing his trainer he will pick his races well.
Minella Awards- Either fragile, very ground dependant or Fry really wanted to target this race again this season. I’d imagine he likes better going even though he has form on soft. He was near last a lot of the way before having to be pushed to get with the main pack- i think he’s got another big pot in him, or potentially graded pots..
Colreevy- comes with a rep, but also created a rep of being weak at the finish. I think it had more to do with her having a preference for slightly better ground. She was in my view, being outstayed in heavy ground bumpers, by two very very good mares in relegate and getaway katie mai. Might take a while for this one to happen, but when she goes over hurdles i will be happy to wait for her to get better going.
Saldier- i mentioned it on twitter before Saturday- saldier +farclas are the juveniles to take from the season. Saldiers life is now a bit more difficult winning on Saturday. But on looks i think he has a lot more potential as he progresses with age. He looks the leggier of the bunch, and his jumping needs time. I wouldn’t rule out a go at the WKD hurdle at Down Royal in OCT/NOV. Trainer also mentioned flat racing.
Minella Indo- Trainer not one for bumper winners. Hes owned by the Monalee owners and they will want chasers. He did say beforehand how he’d have to be very good to win, as even Monalee couldn’t! Bumper full of point winners, itcould work out well, it could work out weak- but i would think this guy will be good going forward.
That’ll do!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yeah,Kemboy looked very good, i was bitterly disappointed with coquin mans though, hes much better than that, but i wont lose faith, ill be playing very early on him if hes going over a fence, which i assume is still the plan
Bapaume still interests me, hes been ridden quietly, footpad like over hurdles, not quite as strong on form of course…not sure what the plan is for him, another season over hurdles? But when he goes over a fence ill be keeping an eye on him.
Vision des flos over fences is another, after his wind op and as the season progressed he started improving no end, didnt quite get his grade 1 but he had two hard races in the space of a few weeks,he could be one to keep an eye on in the jlt/arkle markets for me, i assume that will be the way there thinking with him. Looks sure to keep progressing
And im keen on the one you mentioned aswell, saldier, alot more to come from him, always tough for these 4yos going forward though, get reminded of this year after year.
Kentucky derby:
Mendelssohn 4/1 3 points
Audible 7/1 1 point
Palace house stakes :
Havana grey 5/2 ?! 5 points
1000 guineas :
Laurens 9/1 2.5 points e/w
As said on the 2000 guineas thread i have elarqaam at 33/1 but ill keep that seperate from this as was posted long before i started chipping away at this, so race is really a non bet for me, expert eye e/w would be my angle atm, but GK at 11/4 is still good value, hes the likely winner for me in a field full of horses either better suited by 6/7f or 10/12f
-36 points
2.55 Newmarket
2 points medicine jack 15.5s
1 point e/w captain colby 25/1
-31 points
Reigning it in due to the amount of placed runners since i started this lol like i said elsewhere today, laurens would have won with a prep, she looked like she needed it, but no damage done playing e/w
Onwards we go, fascinating card at naas tomorrow,
1.40 naas Moravia 10/1 2 points e/w
2.10 naas & 5.10 naas Van beethoven 4/5 & imaging 13/8 3 point double @ 3.72/1
-19 points
Well with the drift on imaging the double ended up paying around 4.4/1, mcdonogh nearly gave me a heart attack, not sure what race the pundits watched but that was not a classy ride lol not the most exciting of winning bets but its a start.
Moravia disappointing after opening @10/1 was backed into 3/1 fav, but could only manage 4th
Ill tally al this up soon enough!
Quite liked fairyland today, one for the albany at royal ascot, around 12/1 atm, van beethoven also, 16/1 atm for the coventry, will likely be second choice behind sergei profikov but could be a good e/w angle.
My least favourite track tomorrow but some good racing
Chester 1.50, terrible draw, a massive negative especially in 5f races, but im willing to take a play on the form basis rather than the draw Kinks @4/1 2 points 2nd and 3rd have came out and won from his bath win and he gave a fair amount of weight and won at ripon, channon and bishop firing atm and im hoping for a good run
Chester 2.25, award winning @ 7/1 2 points Not unusual for the obrien filly to improve massively from one run to the next but magic wand has a mountain to climb, a few exposed types before a few other obrien entries, the fav is rotten and ill be stunned if she remains fav by the off
Chester 3.00 Global citizen @ 7/1 1 point
0.5 e/w treble @ 259/1 Quite keen on the first two, bit of fun on the treble, its my day off
-23 points
Lucky you Ham!
Chester looks a lottery, especially the derby/oaks trials IMO.
I’ve 33s on Magic Wand due to PP thinking RM would ride one of the others, but i’ve laid it off at 4s as her form is next to nothing. Who knows she might end up improving enough to win, as i am not sure if the race is very strong at all.
Looks A Million looks a bet to me in the 3.00 at 15/2.
Enjoy! It’s a fantastic course, one of my favourites!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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