Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Tingle Creek 2012
- This topic has 76 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 6 months ago by
Gingertipster.
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- December 11, 2012 at 21:22 #422462
I wouldn’t be interested in backing something each-way that has zero chance of winning, which would be the case with santcuaire assuming sprinter sacre turns up, as you are essentially throwing away the win part of your bet.
instead just back him for a place on betfair if you fancy him to feature.
Fair point EGS, betting place only on betfair is certainly an alternative, especially if able to get a price equivelent to 1/4 bookmakers odds.
Something I sometimes do instead of betting "each way" on day of race; is bet on both win and place markets with exchanges. Place part as a saver, getting back what’s lost on the win bet. Yet having the chance of winning more on the win part than it would with proper "each way" betting.
But betting each way is not "throwing away the win part" EGS. Don’t wish it on any horse, but Sprinter Sacre could run poorly, fall/unseat or get injured/not run. So there’s always a chance of winning. Latter case means you have a chance of getting 16/1 for a win bet of something like a fair 4/1 chance… plus insurance of first 3 places. Mathematically each way betting becomes more advantageous to punters the shorter priced the favourite is. Betting each way against a fair 12 67% chance is better than betting each way in a competitive race where say 7 horses combined chance add up to a fair 12 67% chance; because Sprinter Sacre will only take out one place. The 7 horses could well take out the whole 3 places.
Value Is EverythingDecember 11, 2012 at 22:22 #422491hmm interesting point you make there,about each-way betting being more profitable with a short-priced jolly. although this is something that I should have really considered before, I clearly need to brush up on the maths side. perhaps a bit like when woods was winning everything making the each-way market for the other players?
at least you know with sanctuaire that he’s going to be aimed at the race as he lacks any serious alternatives, unlike sizing europe/finians rainbow/cue card etc
December 11, 2012 at 23:25 #422510Perhaps whilst EGS and Ginger are finishing rubbing each others backs for being so smart, others will refuse to EVER back on line, as you can’t beat holding the folding.
December 12, 2012 at 00:19 #422526apologies if my smugness got a bit too much

I don’t bet online either, although i’d be interested to know your own reasons for not doing so. don’t get the line about holding or folding, i’m clearly not as smart as i thought
December 12, 2012 at 10:47 #422576I get the feeling you don’t like me PC?
Value Is EverythingDecember 12, 2012 at 14:32 #422617Don’t believe it, everyone likes you Ginge, well expect ReetHard.
I was delighted with Sprinter in the Tingle Creek. Have already got a fair amount on for the CC odds against and even 4/7 looks good.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
December 12, 2012 at 14:36 #422618Even going a steadier pace, I still can’t see Sanctuaire lasting home up the hill. Also would Nicholls & Walsh be prepared to let SS go and just run for the place?
Throw into the mix the possibility of the likes of Cue Card, Sizing Europe and Finians poteI personally couldn’t back him.
I would guess Finians being from the same yard as SS would run in a different race. Likewise Sizing Europe being versatile in trip would stand a better chance in other races and cant see him lining up in the Champion Chase.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
December 12, 2012 at 16:44 #422638I get the feeling you don’t like me PC?

On the contrary Ginge – for a smartarse, you’re not a bad egg.
December 12, 2012 at 20:34 #422664Me – a smartarse, surely not PC?
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