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If Sprinter Scare was fit and well I would expect him to be 2-1 on for this, given Sire de Grugy isn’t going to turn up. The fact that he is odds against on Betfair suggests a lack of confidence among insiders. Maybe nothing sinister as it’s always possible his heart problem might recur and it will be his first run for some time, but even so a little disconcerting.
Please God let him turn up close to his super best.
3 Hendo odds on shots turned over at Kempton (including the hype horse west wizard again), the yard is not firing yet anyway.
The superstar two-miler has not run since being pulled up by Barry Geraghty in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton last Christmas, after which he was diagnosed with a heart problem.
That was rectified some time ago, but Henderson is hanging fire on the green light for Sandown, in a race he won with ease in 2012.
He told the Telegraph: "We’re reasonably close, we’ve just got to see.
"I’ll know by Tuesday or Wednesday where we are. It doesn’t even mean he can’t do a racecourse gallop this week if we get the all-clear. He’s had his all-clear from Newmarket (equine specialists) and everything is tickety boo."
Well fancy that.
Mmm bad signs indeed. We had the full array of ‘scoped badly’, ‘not quite ready’ and ‘biding our time’ excuses before his eventual blowout in the Desert Orchid Chase last year.
I hope we see the real Sprinter Sacre if he runs here.
Here we go again…
Nicky’s had at least six months to make sure this horse is rock hard fit and ready to go for the Tingle Creek. If there were no major problems with Sprinter Sacre, the horse would be ready. Surely you can’t just get to late November, realise you’ve undercooked him and say "whoops, not ready, have to miss the Tingle Creek I guess".
The days of Sprinter Sacre winning two mile Grade Ones on the bridle are over I think.
Here we go again…
Nicky’s had at least six months to make sure this horse is rock hard fit and ready to go for the Tingle Creek. If there were no major problems with Sprinter Sacre, the horse would be ready. Surely you can’t just get to late November, realise you’ve undercooked him and say "whoops, not ready, have to miss the Tingle Creek I guess".
The days of Sprinter Sacre winning two mile Grade Ones on the bridle are over I think.
As I have said in the King George thread any small NH doubts nowadays will be magnified a hundred fold with his top horses after the SS heart problem last year.
I pencilled Sire De Grugy as the value for this race when the odds first came out. My thinking was that he had less to prove than Sprinter Sacre but, as fate often conspires to do, the horse had his own injury problem and now we face a scenario where the bookies will trouser the ante-post cash on both of the original favourites.
Disappointing for the race now with Balder Succes now a warm favourite by default.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t understand why Nicky doesn’t run SS anyway. If he didn’t win he could blame soft ground and ‘needing a run’. This seems to be acceptable practice and would have the advantage of getting the horse fit.
I am also surprised Mad Moose is entered. Even on top form he ought to have no chance, but maybe it was an opportunistic entry in the hope no decent horses turned up.
The last 15 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.
The last 12 winners had finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out.
18 of the last 20 winners had won a Grade 1 race already, including Novice Grade 1 wins.
That leaves…
Balder Success 5/2
God’s Own 4/1
(Somersby 9/1 – ignoring SP trend)I’m going to take a chance and ignore the first (SP) trend and plump for Somersby each way as I was impressed by his run in the Amlin 1965 at Ascot, where he finished a little tired but that was over 3 furlongs further and if he reproduces his form from the Queen Mother at Cheltenham earlier this year, will surely be there or thereabouts at the end.
Good luck with your bets.
D-day for Oscar Whisky. With Novices’ so high in the betting this must be a good chance for him to break in to Grade 1 Open company over fences.
Jumped like a nutter when somehow winning the Scilly Isles over a longer distance on course.
Was certainly the best hurdler out of these, and will certainly act well with plenty of cut. The fears are the jumping at 2m pace, and also the 2m distance itself.
Weighing up all the above, he did seem to have gotten the chasing message LTO in a notoriously hot and frenetic handicap with a big weight, this has swayed me to give him a shot. BG up another plus.
The drop to 2m is a worry, and the railway fences are a particular concern. If jumping in a nice rhythm, I’m hoping the pace is frenetic on testing ground leaving OW to stay on nicely and pick them up between the 2nd last and last and win a couple of lengths.
GL all.
Balder Succes for me, Dickie on, run under his belt can see him reverse the form.
Have to respect the Tom George yard’s form, absolutely flying and Ballyallia Man likely to give them another winner today!
Can’t see why God’s Own shouldn’t confirm most recent form with Balder Succes.
Worth bearing in mind that he appears much better going right-handed so it might be very unwise to be wading in to any Cheltenham targets. I would not be surprised if he skipped both Cheltenham and Aintree in favour of another trip to Ireland.
Had the ground turned heavy I would have swayed with ‘Oscar Whisky’ but on ‘Goodish’ ground I really fancy
Dodging Bullets
at 8/1,this fellows a 2 miler the latter isn’t and of the 2 I prefer the Nicholls horses jumping,particularly around a course like Sandown.I have taken 40/1 about ‘Dodging Bullets’ chances of being Champion chaser come March,we’ll see tomorrow if he is a player.
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Came in here to big up Dodging Bullets but see our favourite Ante Post King has already tipped him up, can’t believe how under the radar the horse has gone for this race. His last run was nothing more than a prep for the Tingle Creek and boy does Nichols know how to get one ready for it.
Nichols to have a big day tomorrow I’m hoping he does the business with Irish Saint in the Novice Chase as that’s where my real money lies.
Will be there to see the Saint reign supreme in the flesh and can’t wait.
Balder Success was quite short for this at one stage but touched 3/1 during the week. That was a tempting price but I worry about Gods Own completing a hat trick of wins over the King horse.
I can see why Dodging Bullets would be popular at 8/1 but I felt his form tailed off a bit last season, so, at the same odds I would take a chance on the unexposed and lightly raced
Vukovar
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Vukovar represents Harry Fry and was decent last year without scaling any great heights. He went into the JLT at Cheltenham rated 4lbs below the favourite Felix Yonger and went off an 11/1 shot. His hopes ended early in that race as he was badly hampered when Oscar Whisky and Mozoltov came to grief at the first fence.
A promising sort prior to that, Vukovar has won over 2 miles and destroyed Nicky Henderson’s Open Hearted over further at Newbury. The only disappointment for me was him getting beaten by Mr Mole when an odds on favourite at Warwick last year.
With the stable in form and extra stamina perhaps being useful if they go a good gallop, I would side with the youngster at 8/1 and hope he can complete a big day for the the Fry team.
Frying Tonight!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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