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Obviously Sprinter is a freak and all being well he will win on the snaff by many lengths.
But who will he face?
Who will you be putting in a forecast with SS?
The 2 mile division is incredibly weak looking at the minute, one could argue this would be the best time if any to potentially beat Sprinter Sacre as he may not be 100% but in all honesty he could turn up 50% fit and still win.
Simonsig and Captain Conan are from the same stable so unlikely they will take him on, Cue Card won’t be returning to 2 miles, will Flemenstar, Sizing Europe or Arvika Legionerre bother coming over from Ireland?
That leaves Sir De Grugy who couldn’t beat Kid Cassidy last time out is he good enough to beat SS? Doubtful. Kid Cassidy himself is a decent horse but quirky and isn’t in the same league as SS.
Other than that their is only Somersby, Module and Overturn I can think of, not sure of their likely targets. If Overturn were to produce a performance similar to that when he was second to Rock on Ruby in the Champion he’d maybe get SS off the bridle but for me he doesn’t look the same horse over the larger obstacles. Module would need to improve his jumping to even get a place and you’d think Somersby has him held having given him weight last time out and beat him.
I’d maybe go:
1. Sprinter Sacre
2. Sir De Grugy
3. SomersbyOne more I’ve just thought of is Mad Moose, he’d maybe have a shout of a place, second in the Victor Chandler when he last properly started over jumps. You’d be a brave man to back him though with his tendency not to start!
I would love to see David Pipe have one last roll of the dice with Grands Crus in this race. He seems to travel with plenty of speed. There is probably a physical issue causing his weak finishes, but hey – it can’t do any harm to try two miles. 2nd place is up for grabs.
Grand crus would have been interesting but he’s not entered.
Sprinter is a doubt.
Race wide open if he doesn’t turn up
9 runners set to line up for this:
Captain Conan
– The only Henderson runner in the field with Sprinter Sacre now out. Beaten just once over fences at the festival, not had many runs so potential for him to improve on what he’s already achieved. Beat likely market rival Sire De Grugy on his chasing debut over this trip, also won twice over this course and distance, has a huge shout.
His Excellency
– Put in a very poor performance on his seasonal reappearance last time out, finishing last of 7 behind 4 of the rivals he will face in this (including Mad Moose who gave him a fair head start). Would have to do a lot better here and I’d imagine a return to his best form would still not be enough to win this. McCoy on board possibly the one positive.
Kauto Stone
– Disappointing in Ireland last time over 3 miles, hasn’t ran a lot over this distance in this country been tried a lot in good company over further. Finished second in this race 2 years ago the only time he’s jumped round over the trip, does seem inconsistent however wouldn’t be a huge shock if he won, although a place is more likely.
Mad Moose
– Has the ability to run a big race it’s just a question of will he start, as I stated earlier in the thread he finished ahead of Somersby in the Victor Chandler last time he did decide he was going to race. Not one you can trust but I’ll be having small stakes on him Each Way in case he does decide to start.
Oiseau De Nuit
– Decent horse on his day placed at the Festival and won at Aintree last year, may well be out of his depth here and has been easily beaten by Sire De Grugy when twice facing him previously.
Sire De Grugy
– Lowered the colours of a few decent sorts in the Celebration Chase at the end of last year. A lot of peoples idea as the main danger to Sprinter Sacre this year, beaten by Kid Cassidy on his reappearance but may come on for that run. Likely to be short in the market and i’ll be avoiding him unless he drifts to a backable price.
Somersby
– Been around the block a few times now, consistent and has ran with credit against the likes of MasterMinded, Kauto Star, Sizing Europe, etc. Won at Exeter first time out beating Cue Card into third, trip may have been on the short side for Cue Card but giving what he did next time out we have to take Somersby seriously and for me he’s the one to be on at a likely better price than the other two fancied runners.
Tataniano
– Once looked to have the 2 mile division within his grasp when with Nicholls, now looks a shadow of that horse and can’t see him getting involved.
Viva Colonia
– Ran a good race in the Old Roan at Aintree finishing ahead of Oiseau De Nuit was getting a lot of weight that day though. Finished 6th of 7 in a class 2 last time at Ascot and shouldn’t be getting involved here.
To conclude I’ll be backing
Somersby
to win and having a few quid each way on
Mad Moose
and
Kauto Stone
.
Famous last words, but this has the look of a three horse race,
Sire De Grugy, Captain Conan and Somersby.Kauto Stone
did not look in love with the game on reappearance in Ireland (race he’s won in the past). Normally you’d think might come on for the run, but has produced his best runs fresh. Arguably needs further than 2m to produce best. Blinkers need to work their magic.
Viva Colonia
is hopelessly outclassed, though can travel well before finding very little. Just possible more ability than shows.
His Excellency
only gets involved if pace is overly strong, usually drops himself out.
The
Mad Moose
won’t start.
Tataniano
has had problems, changed stables since his glory days and showed little last time.
Oisuaux Du Nuit
is an admirable sort who should be suited by the ground, but not at best this term and now 11 years old may be on the downgrade.
Last four mentioned have some distance to make up on
Sire De Grugy
from Cheltenham last month. Moore’s horse a beaten odds-on favourite. However, form is pretty good. Jockey appeared to go for home too soon and overhauled by Kid cassidy on run in; trying to give the AP ridden runner 10 lbs. Has form on both soft and good ground. Won Celebration Chase at Sandown as a novice last April. Main bet.
Captain Conan
is an unknown. Takes over from Sprinter Sacre as the Henderson rep. Bit concerned 2 miles on goodish ground could be a little sharp for him, which is why he’s the saver not main. However, a good looking animal with scope to improve this season. Unbeaten in 3 runs at Sandown.
I backed
Somersby
at Exeter last time because of a reasonable record fresh (and very well handicapped), otherwise inconsistent. Trainer believes he’s now found the answer, but Channon is always an optimist. Somersby has not won the number of races ability usually merits. Idled in front and better than head verdict over Module indicates, giving that rival just 3 lbs. On the other hand, flattered by having a below form Cue Card in third (reappearance). Chance today depends on what’s going on up top and wonder whether he’ll be outbattled against two with similar ability.
Main bet:
Sire De Grugy 9/4
Saver: Captain Conan 11/4
Value Is EverythingFamous last words, but this has the look of a three horse race,
Sire De Grugy, Captain Conan and Somersby.I agree Ginger, same as the John Durkan on Sunday… Ripe for a cheeky each way double?
I’ve doubled Arvika Ligeonniere with Captain Conan. If both place I’ll get my stake back and if both win it returns very near 5/1 for the total amount staked.
I’m still a slightly concerned about Henderson’s first time out but Captain Conan has won first time out the past two seasons. He won the novices’ Grade 1 on this card last season also, I think the drop in trip will suit him.
I might be reading too much into this but Henderson has been complaining about a lack of opportunities for Captain Conan, then SS misses this race…
I’ll be watching and hoping for a CC win.
Famous last words, but this has the look of a three horse race,
Sire De Grugy, Captain Conan and Somersby.I agree Ginger, same as the John Durkan on Sunday… Ripe for a cheeky each way double?
I’ve doubled Arvika Ligeonniere with Captain Conan. If both place I’ll get my stake back and if both win it returns very near 5/1 for the total amount staked.
I’m still a slightly concerned about Henderson’s first time out but Captain Conan has won first time out the past two seasons. He won the novices’ Grade 1 on this card last season also, I think the drop in trip will suit him.
I wouldn’t be too concerned with the "first time out" record THM. When a stable is yet to hit top form its horses tend to need the run. It seems Henderson is in better form now "full stop".
Value Is EverythingFamous last words, but this has the look of a three horse race,
Sire De Grugy, Captain Conan and Somersby.I agree Ginger, same as the John Durkan on Sunday… Ripe for a cheeky each way double?
I’ve doubled Arvika Ligeonniere with Captain Conan. If both place I’ll get my stake back and if both win it returns very near 5/1 for the total amount staked.
I’m still a slightly concerned about Henderson’s first time out but Captain Conan has won first time out the past two seasons. He won the novices’ Grade 1 on this card last season also, I think the drop in trip will suit him.
I wouldn’t be too concerned with the "first time out" record THM. When a stable is yet to hit top form its horses tend to need the run. It seems Henderson is in better form now "full stop".
You’re probably right Ginger, Captain Conan goes well fresh anyway so wouldn’t worry me enough to put me off a bet.
The 2 mile division is incredibly weak looking at the minute, one could argue this would be the best time if any to potentially beat Sprinter Sacre as he may not be 100% but in all honesty he could turn up 50% fit and still win.
Absolutely the cupboard is about as bare as I can remember. Even when he comes back I am struggling to see how anyone will get that excited watching him saunter round against second division opponents.
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