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I can honestly say that I’ve found this year’s Doncaster St Leger Meeting just about the most interesting and informative one from a time point of view in my experience (and that comment wins the Ian Davies Prize for Saddest Anorak Comment of The Century).
A tailwind on the first two days, no wind on the third day and a headwind on the final day, talk of the grass being too short, subtly different ground on the round course to the straight, the draw having an effect, and then not………..
Faced with all this, the temptation was to give up. But the no-wind situation on the Friday gave me a reasonable handle on the respective surfaces on the round and the straight courses, from which I could attempt to extrapolate information about the effect of the wind on other days.
It’s odd how some of those who were stating that the amazingly fast times were a consequence of short grass rather than firm going seem to have changed their tunes.
And there were, seemingly, some notable time performances over the four days as well, not least those of Etlaala and Iceman in the Champagne.
I’m sorry I’ve missed most of this thread(holidays), because it’s an area in which I have an interest. I’m puzzled by the RP Haydock 5/6f Standard Time mystery and will have to look into it. Some very good posts.
I work to the old Raceform Standard times and they have served me very well over the years. I find the current ‘median’ times very unhelpful for my purposes.
I am firmly of the opinion, having studied times for nearly 30 years, that they are relevant in only a very small percentage of races.
I haven’t looked at the times for last Saturday’s Haydock meeting so can’t comment.
I saw some report stating the ground was firm at dony on the round course,but when you see pictures of the races there are grass and bits of mud coming up…We definitly need a scientific way of measuring going,in fact the time clocked with a reasonable run race is the ultimate going guide,but that is after the event…Surely something has to be done to give us an accurate going description but yet again there is no punters club or anyone looking out for the punter in British racing…Suggestions of how the ball can start to roll and this can be accomplished are allways welcome,as it stands now the jc and bhb are squarley against the punter and only do things to extract more losses from us and amazingly this would include clouding the form for students.
Not being a fan of times at all, i would say that sectional timing is surely more relevant than that for the overall race…
Sometimes im curious to see whther a horse really has quickened well or its the others standing still. Can be alittle hard to tell on occasions and sectional may help somewhat
Two year old races are perhaps ok too, often being truely run but beyond that pace and tactics wrecks overall time calculations for me
Re Clivex’s last point, if anyone taped the Kelly Holmes races in Athens, watch them with the sound down. Does she look as if she’s quickening? Very probably, yet the info on times was that she was maintaining her speed while the rest were slowing down. Same with Hicham El Gerrouj, I think.
Don’t know what people made of the times at Newmarket today:
8f Forward Move 95.70<br>8f Titian Time 96.22<br>7f Grosvenor Square 82.95<br>8f Bunny Rabbit 95.98<br>6f King Marju 70.49<br>6f The Pheasant Flyer 70.52
Was that firm going at Newmarket or has Hurricane Ivan suddenly appeared on these shores and positioned itself directly behind the runners?
Even the arabs ran a mile in not much over 104 sec.:o
TDK, would you like to quantify the effect—in pounds—that "windy (bloody windy in places)" has on overall race times, assuming that the wind was behind or nearly behind the runners?;)
According to my calculations, the allowance for conditions (aka going allowance) is 28 lb faster than good to firm going.
A third option is: was that Hurricane Ivan and firm going?
:)
Perhaps, empty wallet, but we are merely seekers of wisdom and truth. Therefore we apply scientific methods and devise theories to be tested by evidence, rather than just rely on the opinions of race readers, jockeys, trainers and pundits. I suppose we do take account of these opinions and use our own race-reading skills, but the main peice of evidence is always the race-time, adjusted for the prevailing conditions. We haven’t got sectional times at anywhere except Newmarket as yet: when these arrive, the picture will be much clearer.
It is always tempting to keep things simple, but a horse race is a very complex and chaotic event and each race could probably fill a small chapter in the form book if all aspects of it were scrutinised.
Knowing this doesn’t necessarily make you any richer, but helps you to understand just how difficult it is to make money at this game.
artemis
this is why horse racing is IMHO is brilliant,people read racing in different ways,be it by time by colateral form etc<br>if everyone had the same opinion how could i find big price winners
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:25 pm on Sep. 22, 2004)<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:26 pm on Sep. 22, 2004)
EC, can you explain how you managed to put speed figures on the races from 6f to 7f given that such races have never before been run on the round course?
Is it from the assumption that the difference between a straight-course and a round-course 8f standard time (which is something we know) will be reflected on a pro-rata basis at 6f/6.5f/7f? If so, I reckon that could be a questionable assumption.
EC , interersting set of numbers , agree with Kehar and Rakti , the rest we are at a large variance
What is a bit of a imponderable is your usage of a set figure for variant adjustment
This is not the best,  as each race conditions change , wind , additional sunshine , and or continour rain , so you need to treat each race seperately, and measure points per furlong accordingly
I guaranttee this will reap better rewards
R :cheesy:
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