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Before the tragedy on Saturday I thought Nilly-D was a good shout, and at 5-2 a place was a complete steal!
My main tip since the weights were published, however, has been Far From Trouble. Galway Plate winner; going well when he came to grief in the Irish National, light weight etc. <br>Simon now has earned a good look. Although IIRC the Red Square Gold Cup is a terrible guide for the National in recent years (Bear on Board, Jurancon, Ossmoses etc).<br>Point Barrow has chances, but will probably be backed off the course because of his predecessor in the Irish National, Numbersixvalverde (BTW, I’d avoid last year’s winner; I think the weight will be too much for him).<br>And I will back Ruby Walsh to win with Hedgehunter on his back before I back Dun Doire!
And a final controversial one; if you can find ‘with a run’ markets, take Exotic Dancer at 20’s (33’s before the Gold Cup); his hold-up style will suit, he’s 12lbs well-in and been second in the Gold Cup since, and prior to Friday had seldom made any sort of mistake in jumping fences. Connections say they prefer the Betfair Bowl, hence the with a run bet, but I’d love to see him try the big one!
(Edited by Friggo at 5:40 pm on Mar. 19, 2007)
I can’t really see past last years big two Hedgehunter and Numbersix but with Hedgehunter having the burden of top weight i’d bet on Numbersix winning back to back nationals. Longshanks and Ursumman both look good e.w bets. Knowhere and Naunton Brook could run well with the stable knowing what it takes to win a national having won with (Party Politics, Earth Summit and Bindaree).
Hello,
Yes, Longshanks for me ;)
Only one run this season tho’, but goes very well fresh and Mr Bailey [past GN winner], has aimed his horse at this race.
regards,
doyley
monkerhostin is my selection, he seems certain to stay, has abit of class, seemed to be back in form in the gold cup, jumps safely, but isnt impressive, which will help in the national. <br>
Idle Talk ran a great race in the Gold Cup – stayed up in the van all the way around, jumped well, showed a lot of spirit, threw it down to Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer two out and stayed on well up the hill.
Of course, he may not be as good with a jockey on his back…<br>
yeah, he only had a 12 stone weight advantage after the 4th fence so is obviously the horse to take out of the race!
Longshanks has been trained with this in mind for some time, he is my pick.
Bewleys Berry is another interesting one.
I had a strong fancy for Bewley’s Berry aswell before Haydock. I also saw a rerun of the Beecher soon after, and he was running on the spot at the finish there after 3m3, another mile plus won’t do him any favours.
Whilst we’re here, a related question; what do you guys think the bottom weight will be this year? I hope it’s as low as possible; I think having no horses carrying less than about 10st6 has been detrimental to the National in the past couple of years.
(Edited by Friggo at 8:42 pm on Mar. 20, 2007)
I honestly think Numbersixvalverde is a nailed on bet for a place. Obviously history shows it’s difficult to win two Nationals, but carrying 11 stone 3 isn’t like carrying the welter burden that Hedgehunter did last year. Although, the counter argument to that is Hedgehunter is a classier animal. He finished just behind Point Barrow last time, and despite being worse off at the weights at Aintree, experience over the trip and fences may offset the weight difference.
Would love to see Silver Birch run in the race too. Has found his form again and ran a cracker at the festival.
I am a Longshanks fan….but now that Jason Maguire has decided to keep the ride on Idle Talk, Kim Bailey is looking for a decent jockey for him…. he has been my only antepost bet this year. My partner has had a sly bet on Simon, only cause his name is Simon too….
and Danny Party Politics was not trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, he was trained by Nick Gaslee in Lambourn, just Carl LLewellyn was a last minute jockey change, due to Andy Adams breaking his leg… And Carl was a last minute replacement for Tom Jenks on Earth Summit he also broke his leg….and Bindaree was ridden by Jim Culloty, because Carl was committed to Beau, who fell due to the reins snapping..but agreed, Nauton brook is worth looking at.
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far from trouble has been very quiet and missed cheltenham to wait for the national, would surely have won the irish national but for unseating has since made amends in the galway plate. been kept fresh for this with a novice hurdle win.<br>if mcoy gets off clan royal to ride him its a tip in itself.
I can’t wait for this, Im goin 4 the 1st time, Iv got Eurotrek e/w as my main bet, I don’t know as much as u lot but I have read a lot on here for the past few months an listen to what u are all sayin, not just on this race but in general, u have mentioned Eurotrek is in with a shout so that is good, but I backed it purely after it winnin the Becher chase last year.
Iv also got Clan Royal e/w cos I always back it an after it being run out of the race by the stray horse last time Iv gotta have a sentimental bet on it, even if it’s chances are getting slimmer each year..
Iv also got L’Ami e/w but I’m not sure if he will run? Simon is interesting too, I made a BIG mistake for the Welsh National last year, I knew Halcon G was aimed at that race an planned a big bet, then I heard ppl tippin Simon an the racin post had it as their nap so I changed my mind last minute, we all know who won :angry:
Hedgehunter loves the G N an is always gonna go close, so I might stick a safety bet on him come the day..
Altho he is 1 horse Iv never taken to, like Kauto Star, so I always try an oppose em!
Hopefully 1 of my above selection will come in somewhere!
jonny33 I don’t know if you have the full facts about Far From Trouble. Far From Trouble missed Cheltneham because it picked up an injury! It had injured of its legs I think and so they had to pull it from Cheltenham, it wasn’t a case of saving it for Aintree. I also think it is far from confirmed to run as a result of this injury.
<br>And I will back Ruby Walsh to win with Hedgehunter on his back before I back Dun Doire!
I cant understand why so many people out there see DunDoire as a no hoper for the national. In my book he has done nothing wrong. Very Impressive in the William Hill last year ive never seen a horse finish as well up the Cheltenham Hill, has a great weight to carry, Paul Carberry is ment to take the ride, has been crying out for a trip like this, jumped brilliantly around Aintree in November untill being bought down and from a very shrewd trainer and yard he is clearly been set up for this race!!
If so many people dont fancy his chances how come hes still the fav and not much money to lay him on the exchanges.
Would be grateful if our Irish spies could give any news about Far From Trouble. He would be my only serious National bet in some years if he turns up sound. As I understand it, he wrenched a joint in training and Christy Roche has called it "a race against time" to get him ready. Personally I think it will prove a blessing missing Cheltenham with the horse and I hope Christy is being a tad pessimistic about his prospects.
Quote: from Friggo on 5:38 pm on Mar. 19, 2007[br]<br> Although IIRC the Red Square Gold Cup is a terrible guide for the National in recent years (Bear on Board, Jurancon, Ossmoses etc).<br>
<br>Basically yes, although it’s a bit premature to quote Ossmoses as part of that statistic without him having run in the National yet to confirm or contradict that hypothesis.
As previously stated elsewhere, I’d still be very keen on Ossmoses if it turned out really wet, the Bothar Na with his jumping shoes on (not a given) if we have a good-ground renewal.
Jeremy<br>(graysonscolumn)<br>
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
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