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In the Pertemps Qualifier tomorrow I like
Empire Of Dirt
.He looked outpaced behind Apache Stronghold two runs back over 2m 4f and ran well over the same trip last time out behind Fauugheen. He steps up to three miles tomorrow and I think the trip could bring out significant improvement. He’s out of a Roselier mare so he should handle the ground while he’s a half brother to Panther Claw who stays very well. Colm Murphy is no stranger to handicap success at this meeting (Glam Gerry and Shariyan spring to mind) and I think he’ll go close tomorrow off 10-10. The one I fear is Tony Martin’s Living Next Door, who gets in at bottom weight and was running well last time in the Troytown before coming down at the last.
Leop 12.50
Empire Of Dirt
€10 win @ 9/1 (PP)- €28.73
I think
Solwhit
is bombproof in the Christmas Hurdle. Zaidpour’s best form is right handed imo, although he did run well in this race last season. Mullins horses are under a bit of a cloud and I’d have to really fancy one in order to back one of them until I think they’ve turned a corner. I’m a big Rule The World fan but thought he was really disappointing last time out. I wonder if they’re just taking things relatively handy with him this season to get more experience before he goes chasing? At any rate he has 16 lbs on ratings to make up on Solwhit and I don’t think he’s going to bridge that gap tomorrow. Solwhit goes well on soft ground, has won over three miles before and goes well at Leopardstown. I can’t avail of Boyles 8/11 at the moment but 4/6 with PP will do. I’d have him 2/5.
Leop 1.50
Solwhit
€50 win @ 4/6 (PP)- €58.73
I really like
Talbot Road
in the beginners’ chase. He caught the eye when staying on well in third behind Bright New Dawn and Dogora. Important here is the Arthur Moore factor. He targets this meeting and was successful with this very horse when winning a maiden hurdle at the meeting last year. He had a quiet run before that success too and the stars look like they’ve aligned again for him now if you know what I mean. Mullins’ horse would be a warm order if the race was ran a week ago but there are doubts about the health of his string now so I’ll oppose him happily with Talbot Road at 3/1.
Leop 2.20
Talbot Road
€20 win @ 3/1 (PP)- €78.73
In the opening race I like
Riverside City
, will wait until I see the prices before I decide whether to bet or not though. He loked to really appreciate the step up to 2m 4f last time out when finishing strongly behind Clonard Lad at Naas. Akorakor was disappointing last time out and the form of what looked a strong bumper he won now looks nothing special. Sure Reef will probably be favourite but the way some of Mullins’ a running I’ll take him on at likely prohibitive odds. I’d be hoping to get 5/1 about Riverside City.
The Welsh National tomorrow looks a cracker. Tidal Bay running adds plenty of intrigue and I think he can go close. The last time he ran in a handicap he was second in the Hennessy off 166 and he runs off 163 tomorrow. That being said, he has to give the bones of two stone to some talented rivals and he’ll need to be at his best.
I’ve long has Goonyella in mind for this race but I don’t think there’s much value in his price at 8/1. He has plenty of stamina and will handle the ground but had a less than ideal trip over and I just don’t feel like 8/1 is a price to be getting involved at.
I’ve gone for
Tour Des Champs
. He is liable to throw in the odd stinker but has ran on his last three outings. He’s crying out for a proper test of stamina and that’s what he’ll get tomorrow. He’s also handled heavy ground well in the past which is a positive as well as the fact it will increase the emphasis on stamina. I haven’t backed him each way but rather with Paddy Power’s 4-place insurebet offer, where he is 10/1. He’s only 14/1 to win outright so I like this bit of added insurance.
Chepstow 2.35
Tour Des Champs
€10 win @ 10/1 (PP 4 place insurebet)- €88.73
What did you make of Bright New Dawn?
I thought it was a very poor/peculiar ride from Russell. He was about 15 lengths clear and gaining ground at his fences then all of a sudden he appeared to either apply the brakes or have trouble steering him. The horse immediately started jumping out to the right and from that point it was effectively race over. At the time I thought we were looking at another Analifet.
That run has probably killed off any prospects of the RSA. Sadly, I think between them the trainer and jockey have made a complete horlicks of things and the horse will eventually prove to so much better over this trip on better ground. Things are not going particularly well for the Russell/Gigginstown combination at present and unless a few big pots go their way it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see Cooper taking over sooner than expected.
Notice I made a mistake with my calculations, wrote €50 win on Solwhit but only subtracted €30. I only had €30 on so don’t know why I did that, non runner anyway so it makes no difference. Talbot Road was a non runner too unfortunately. Empire Of Dirt was backed into 11/2 fav before being given a questionable ride and fading in to the straight, while Tour Des Champs was pulled up.
I backed Bright New Dawn yesterday Stilvi and thought he was given a very poor ride. The decision to run him in Grade 1 company over 3 mils after just one chase start was one I questioned. I think he has plenty of speed and think he would have been better suited to a race over 2m 4f or around that, before stepping up at Cheltenham if they want to. The decision to make the running was equally questionable imo. Those of us who backed him yesterday knew our faith early enough as he was keen and started jumping to his right. There was no chance he was going to get home from then on. Leopardstown is a track I like to see horses held up at, because the climb to the finish is huge and the complexion of races often changes in the straight, as horses fly home from the back and those in front often tie up. Considering Bright New Dawn was stepping up to three miles for the first time I was shocked he went off at such a clip. The ride given to Empire Of Dirt was almost the exact same and in similar circumstances, with the horse stepping up to three miles for the first time.
Two bets so far for tomorrow’s racing at Punchestown. The first is
Mourad
in the 2m 4f hurdle. He’s been off the track for over a year but has been a reliable horse in this type of contest over the years. He has form on heavy ground and has ran well over this distance in the Hattons Grace in the past. This is no Hattons Grace and I can’t believe the disparity in price between him and Boston Bob.
Boston Bob began to look painfully slow over three miles last season and it’s hard to see a drop in trip playing to his strengths. His form over hurdles looks far better than his fences form in fairness, with the pick being a defeat of Lyreen Legend giving him 10 lbs. A return to hurdles may liven him up and for all I know he could be more forward in his work than Mourad. However I think he’s far too short at 8/15 when Mourad can be backed at 7/2.
In the 2m 4f handicap hurdle
Gilgamboa
looks the obvious horse. He won a maiden hurdle in Galway on heavy ground in the manner of a good horse, never needing a slap of the whip and looking as if a step up in trip would see him in an even better light. He then ran in the Punchestown novice hurdle won by The Game Changer, again over two miles although this time on good ground. He raced wide off the bend into the straight and looked to be going nowhere at one stage before staying on again to nearly get up for second. I feel the combination of a step up in trip and a return to racing on heavy ground should bring about improvement, and at 9/2 he’s over-priced.
Punchestown 1.45
Mourad
€15 win @ 7/2 (PP)Punchestown 2.45
Gilgamboa
€20 win @ 9/2 (PP)€5 win double @ 7/2 & 9/2 (PP)
- €78.73
Mourad
ran like a 100/1 shot having been punted down from 7/2 to 5/2. Saw a very funny tweet the other day along the lines of ‘Consoling yourself with the fact you’ve got the value as your horse falls out the back of the telly’, pretty apt here.
On the other hand
Gilgamboa
was well backed at 3/1 (there was a Rule 4) and won snugly enough in the handicap hurdle. I thought Mark Walsh might have been a bit cheeky in the finish and I’d say he’ll be able win another handicap. Returned €92 after the Rule 4.
+ €13.27
Sir Des Champs out for the season. Absolutely gutted, thought his run in the Lexus was full of promise and the only horse I could see beating Bobs Worth.
- Total Posts 764
Sir Des Champs out for the season. Absolutely gutted, thought his run in the Lexus was full of promise and the only horse I could see beating Bobs Worth.
Sitting on decent money if Bobs Worth wins so the less competition he has on the day the better! What makes you think Sil Conti won’t serve it up to Bob?
Hard lines with SDC there Tommy, I was convinced it was either O’Leary’s or ‘Bob’s’ Gold Cup this year. Still looks a fair option and as much as the Henderson horse has shown otherwise several times over I still reckon ‘the Lieutenant’ can have his day in that particular battle.
Finally got around to catching up on my mate
Vautour’s
debut run and I’ve got to say he looks absolute mustard to me. Don’t know if you’d noticed but the money’s been pouring in for him for the Supreme over the last couple of days, a total sickener for me personally
Sir Des Champs out for the season. Absolutely gutted, thought his run in the Lexus was full of promise and the only horse I could see beating Bobs Worth.
Sitting on decent money if Bobs Worth wins so the less competition he has on the day the better! What makes you think Sil Conti won’t serve it up to Bob?
Think Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs are a few pounds better than Silviniaco. Also, they’ve got the all important course form which Silviniaco has yet to achieve. He took an awful fall n the race last year too. He obviously has a chance and rates as a big danger to Bobs Worth but at the prices I’d be with Bobs Worth every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Hard lines with SDC there Tommy, I was convinced it was either O’Leary’s or ‘Bob’s’ Gold Cup this year. Still looks a fair option and as much as the Henderson horse has shown otherwise several times over I still reckon ‘the Lieutenant’ can have his day in that particular battle.
Finally got around to catching up on my mate
Vautour’s
debut run and I’ve got to say he looks absolute mustard to me. Don’t know if you’d noticed but the money’s been pouring in for him for the Supreme over the last couple of days, a total sickener for me personally
Thanks Boz, very disappointed as I thought he ran a lovely race in the Lexus and the sounds from Closutton were very encouraging.
I’ve had a very close eye on the market move for Vautour and have missed the boat a bit myself. I’d say you’re sick enough alright but you never know with Mullins and he could end up in the Neptune yet. There doesn’t look a standout Supreme candidate so maybe there’s still some value in Vautour?
Tough alright Bobby, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him and he may well go the way of Gigginstown’s other star chaser Weapons Amnesty now.
Was playing snooker with the friend who took the private bet with me earlier today and he was insisting on giving me my €20 stake back. In the end I played him one frame to get a tenner back which I duly won with a high break of 16.Anyway, we have to keep looking forward for the next winner. Not much catches the eye tomorrow at Navan but there are a couple of good novice races. Mullins has 1/2 favs in both, Briar Hill undoubtedly being the most high profile of the two. However, I think
Mozoltov
is the most solid of the pair. He jumped well on his fencing debut and with so many stars hailing from Closutton he has crept somewhat under the radar.
Importantly, he has th ebeating of his main rivals, with Mallowney beaten an easy 7 lengths last time while Ned Buntline couldn’t get near him over hurdles. At 1/2 I think he’s actually not bad value and will be my only bet of the day. I considered doubling him with Briar Hill but I’d be half afraid Very Wood will put it up to the Wylie horse, in receipt of 10 lbs.
Naas 1.00
Mozoltov
€30 win @ 1/2 (PP)- €6.73
Sounds like a decent mate Tommy, looked like fairest outcome.
Hope SDC comes back, though as you say, could be another Weapons Amnesty…………….whatever happened to Last Instalment as well?
I’m struggling to find a bet just now, never mind a winner. First Saturday in living memory I haven’t had a bet.
Followed my Haydock bets on Monday, with a few at Cheltenham/Musselburgh on New Years Day. If Allthekingshorses had placed at Cheltenham, would have turned a good day into a very good one. Not had one since though, well, apart from one for one of my systems bets on the 2nd. I’m saving a fortune
Good luck with Mozoltov tomorrow, and looking forward to seeing Briar Hill too, but it’s gonna be yet another day of no bets by the look of things, though considering Mortimers Cross @ 7’s in The Sussex National.
Sounds like a decent mate Tommy, looked like fairest outcome.
Hope SDC comes back, though as you say, could be another Weapons Amnesty…………….whatever happened to Last Instalment as well?
I’m struggling to find a bet just now, never mind a winner. First Saturday in living memory I haven’t had a bet.
Followed my Haydock bets on Monday, with a few at Cheltenham/Musselburgh on New Years Day. If Allthekingshorses had placed at Cheltenham, would have turned a good day into a very good one. Not had one since though, well, apart from one for one of my systems bets on the 2nd. I’m saving a fortune
Good luck with Mozoltov tomorrow, and looking forward to seeing Briar Hill too, but it’s gonna be yet another day of no bets by the look of things, though considering Mortimers Cross @ 7’s in The Sussex National.
Yeah he’s worse at snooker than me too
I haven’t given up hope on Last Instalment being the fly in the Gold Cup ointment. Looks the only one at big prices capable of performing at this level.
I’m the same VTC, no bet yesterday and Mozoltov non runner today, no harm anyway after the busy Christmas period.
Although I have had one bet today, that is Faugheen to win any race at the festival at 5/1.
Win Any Cheltenham Race
Faugheen
€10 win @ 5/1 (PP)+ €13.27
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