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Tommy just to say happy christmas to you
Any thoughts on big races over christmas in ireland too i like so far
OUR CONNOR
HIDDEN CYCLONE
BALLYCASEYMerry Christmas to you too Darren, hope it’s a good one for you and all who may be looking in.
I’m looking forward to seeing Our Conor alright. I hope he jumps with the same fluency under Mullins as that’s his big asset. If he’s beaten it won’t be the end of the world as long as he’s not thumped out of sight. Connections seem far more confident now than the murmurs that were doing the rounds a couple of months back. I hope Hurricane Fly wins though.
I see the ground has already gone soft and with an unsettled forecast ahead it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Festival is blighted by heavy ground. A real shame looking ahead to Cheltenham but I suppose we should count ourselves lucky if nothing gets abandoned.
Most of my fancies want better ground and I am very much hoping they pull out Bright New Dawn. He has been weak in the ante-post market and I think the ground has been the issue. I think it is pretty obvious Foxrock wants a stamina test but I am not so sure heavy ground is his ideal. The ground is against his challengers so it looks like another win for Hurricane Fly. Again the ground is far from ideal for Champagne Fever but he doesn’t have a lot to beat.
Any thoughts on Jody McGarvey? I have been watching him this season on The Cookie Jar purely because I remember her dam, Garrylogh, running for David Gandolfo many years ago. Fortunately, I picked the right time to back her yesterday and I thought the jockey gave her a very confident ride. The places she had previously gained were also in no small way due to the determined attitude of her rider. If only all jockeys followed the similar example in riding for the each-way.
I was very surprised it took so long for the ground to turn soft at Leopardstown. Navan was soft to heavy at the weekend and it’s been bucketing down here in Wexford. Dublin has missed the worst of it seemingly and Leopardstown is the best draining track in the country. I don’t think it’ll be worse than soft there, although Limerick could be like the Bog of Allen.
I don’t think Bright New Dawn wants a slog and I’d rather see him sit it out if it goes very soft. It should suit Ballycasey though on the other hand so there’ll be no excuses for him. This is the time for him to step up and deliver on the hype. I would fancy him to do so if Bright New Dawn is pulled.
I’m hoping Defy Logic can give Champagne Fever a race. Champagne must be working the house down as they seem to think he’s a real bus altogether. With Trifolium in the race too there’ll be no hiding place and could set it up for a good run from Ted Veale, although I don’t think he’s as good as the top two (Ted Veale is top of Grand Annual list). The ground should suit Defy Logic, Champagne Fever has been known to throw in an odd stinker so I might take him on with Nolan’s horse.
I don’t think the ground is an excuse for Our Conor and Jezki as they’ve very good form on soft ground. I hope the three of them turn up for what would then be the most exciting race of the week for me. A race to enjoy and roar on the Fly without a bet methinks
Can’t say I have a strong opinion on Jody McGarvey but you’re not the first to say that to me. The ride on The Cookie Jar was very good, thought he produced the horse perfectly, looks to have a cool head.
Just glancing at tomorrow’s racing now, there’s so much racing I’m just going to write my early thoughts here as I look through the cards.
LEOPARDSTOWN
12.20
A
Clondaw Court
win is very likely but the likelihood of him being a backable price is very unlikely.
12.50
Looks a far more competitive affair with Daneking, Chancol, Stuccodor, Beach Of Falesa, The Winkler and Wrath Of Titans all likely to have their supporters.
Chancol
impressed me at Navan and going on the current Betfair prices he’s the outsider of the above lot at 9/1. That win was on good-yielding and trainer Noel Meade commented that he’s prefer softer ground, which he’ll get tomorrow. I’d consider him very overpriced at those odds.
1.20
I’m interested to see what sort of price
Noble Inn
will be without Analifet. He’s run well behind her in defeat the past two runs and I can see him doing the same again here.
1.50
No strong opinion here. If forced to have a bet I’d go with Somethingwonderful or Sammy Black.
2.55
With front runners Champagne Fever, Defy Logic and Trifolium here they could go a serious pace. Could set up for good runs from Road To Riches (who could drop in rather than lead I think), Art Of Logistics and Ted Veale. I think Champagne Fever is probably too short although the obvious one to beat. I think
Defy Logic
is the second best horse in the race and as long as he doesn’t go a suicidal pace he can put it up to the Fever.
LIMERICK
2.45 Another day on
Felix Yonger
‘s road to the Jewson. If he’s going to do that he’ll need to be able give weight to some talented rivals. He’s long odds on to do so, I’m hoping he puts in a good round of jumping. Let’s not forget Sir Des Champs was being given a race by Knockfierna here a couple of years ago.
DOWN ROYAL
1.30
A very good hunters chase, no bet but will watch with interest, as good horses Salsify, Tammys Hill, On The Fringe and Joncol involved.
KEMPTON
3.10
A race I’ll probably watch rather than have a bet in but if I do have a bet it will probably be on Al Ferof. His victory in an attritional Paddy Power lives long in the memory and with conditions like to be very testing tomorrow he can run well.
Just glancing at tomorrow’s racing now, there’s so much racing I’m just going to write my early thoughts here as I look through the cards.
LEOPARDSTOWN
12.20
A
Clondaw Court
win is very likely but the likelihood of him being a backable price is very unlikely.
12.50
Looks a far more competitive affair with Daneking, Chancol, Stuccodor, Beach Of Falesa, The Winkler and Wrath Of Titans all likely to have their supporters.
Chancol
impressed me at Navan and going on the current Betfair prices he’s the outsider of the above lot at 9/1. That win was on good-yielding and trainer Noel Meade commented that he’s prefer softer ground, which he’ll get tomorrow. I’d consider him very overpriced at those odds.
1.20
I’m interested to see what sort of price
Noble Inn
will be without Analifet. He’s run well behind her in defeat the past two runs and I can see him doing the same again here.
1.50
No strong opinion here. If forced to have a bet I’d go with Somethingwonderful or Sammy Black.
2.55
With front runners Champagne Fever, Defy Logic and Trifolium here they could go a serious pace. Could set up for good runs from Road To Riches (who could drop in rather than lead I think), Art Of Logistics and Ted Veale. I think Champagne Fever is probably too short although the obvious one to beat. I think
Defy Logic
is the second best horse in the race and as long as he doesn’t go a suicidal pace he can put it up to the Fever.
It doesn’t look the easiest punting day but if I have a bet tomorrow it will probably be Chancol. I thought he won a shade cosily last time. Big plus for me that AP will be at Kempton. My main concern would be the ground. Very unusual for a Meade horse to actually want soft ground. Whatever I am pretty sure he isn’t going to open anything like 9/1.
Will be keeping an eye on the Gigginstown pair, Somethingwonderful and Fort Smith. Unfortunately, Somethingwonderful’s jumping has been less than wonderful so far but if he can improve in that department he should be competitive enough once the ground dries up. I doubt Fort Smith derived sufficient benefit from his ‘quiet’ first run to be winning what looks a decent contest but it shouldn’t be too long before he is winning on better ground. He is a half brother to Splash Of Ginge (by Oscar) from the family of prolific winners See More Business and Even Melody. No surprise he cost six figures.
Good luck.
Just glancing at tomorrow’s racing now, there’s so much racing I’m just going to write my early thoughts here as I look through the cards.
LEOPARDSTOWN
12.20
A
Clondaw Court
win is very likely but the likelihood of him being a backable price is very unlikely.
12.50
Looks a far more competitive affair with Daneking, Chancol, Stuccodor, Beach Of Falesa, The Winkler and Wrath Of Titans all likely to have their supporters.
Chancol
impressed me at Navan and going on the current Betfair prices he’s the outsider of the above lot at 9/1. That win was on good-yielding and trainer Noel Meade commented that he’s prefer softer ground, which he’ll get tomorrow. I’d consider him very overpriced at those odds.
1.20
I’m interested to see what sort of price
Noble Inn
will be without Analifet. He’s run well behind her in defeat the past two runs and I can see him doing the same again here.
1.50
No strong opinion here. If forced to have a bet I’d go with Somethingwonderful or Sammy Black.
2.55
With front runners Champagne Fever, Defy Logic and Trifolium here they could go a serious pace. Could set up for good runs from Road To Riches (who could drop in rather than lead I think), Art Of Logistics and Ted Veale. I think Champagne Fever is probably too short although the obvious one to beat. I think
Defy Logic
is the second best horse in the race and as long as he doesn’t go a suicidal pace he can put it up to the Fever.
It doesn’t look the easiest punting day but if I have a bet tomorrow it will probably be Chancol. I thought he won a shade cosily last time. Big plus for me that AP will be at Kempton. My main concern would be the ground. Very unusual for a Meade horse to actually want soft ground. Whatever I am pretty sure he isn’t going to open anything like 9/1.
Will be keeping an eye on the Gigginstown pair, Somethingwonderful and Fort Smith. Unfortunately, Somethingwonderful’s jumping has been less than wonderful so far but if he can improve in that department he should be competitive enough once the ground dries up. I doubt Fort Smith derived sufficient benefit from his ‘quiet’ first run to be winning what looks a decent contest but it shouldn’t be too long before he is winning on better ground. He is a half brother to Splash Of Ginge (by Oscar) from the family of prolific winners See More Business and Even Melody. No surprise he cost six figures.
Good luck.
He’s in to 11/2 on Betfair now Stilvi, that’s probably more realistic but I thought he’d be near favourite so it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes off a fair bit shorter.
I’d marginally prefer Sammy Black to Somethingwonderful. He was second in this race last year off a 12 lb lower mark but I think he has improved since. He ran well behind Un De Sceaux when 25 lengths ahead of Never Enough Time off level weights, a horse who is now rated 116, 1 lbs higher than Sammy Black.
He also beat Not For Changing last season by a neck giving him 16 lbs. That horse re-opposes tomorrow 11 lbs worse off yet looks like possibly opening up a shorter price.
You might have dug one out in Fort Smith. That last run was very eye catching and Elliott is the type to target the bigger meetings. He was off it early enough and kept on from a long way back to be only beaten five lengths by the preferred Giggy horse Wrath Of Titans. Fort Smith also has the benefit of the best jockey in the race in Jamie Codd which is significant enough when compared with the likes of Macbride who really should have won last time out.
Leop 12.50
Chancol
€10 win @ 6/1 (Boyles)Leop 13.20 (without Analifet)
Noble Inn
€20 win @ 5/2 (PP)Leop 13.50
Sammy Black
€10 win @ 13/2 (PP)Leop 2.55
Defy Logic
€10 e/w @ 9/2 (PP)Leop 2.55 (without Champagne Fever)
Defy Logic
€20 win @ 1/1- €177.48
KEMPTON
3.10
A race I’ll probably watch rather than have a bet in but if I do have a bet it will probably be on Al Ferof. His victory in an attritional Paddy Power lives long in the memory and with conditions like to be very testing tomorrow he can run well.
Kempton 3.10
Al Ferof
€10 win @ 4/1- €187.48
Leop 13.20 (without Analifet)
Noble Inn
€20 win @ 5/2 (PP)[/color]Non runner unfortunately.
- €167.48
Confidence is high after Defy Logic rewards long term faith there!
Fantastic when you stick by a horse and then see him go what looked an unsustainable clip with Arkle fav Champagne Fever, an still have enough in the tank up the Leopardstown hill to see off Trifolium. He has one hell of an engine that’s for sure. That was really a site to behold as nothing could go with the front two.Boosts Felix Yonger’s form too oddly enough as that one beaten in Cork but lost little in defeat. I was worried on that ground and it proved he was unable to quicken on it. Bet Victor went 14/1 for Jewson straight away but that has disappeared now, hopefully they’ll put it up again
Jewson 2014
Felix Yonger
€10 win @ 14/1 (BV)Outrageous price
His form got all sorts of boosts today. Have to go in again.
Jewson 2014
Felix Yonger
€10 win @ 14/1 (BV)Time for a feed of turkey now and then a feed of cider.
Just a few thoughts.
Well done on Defy Logic. The first thing to note was how keen Walsh was to be on the front end with Champagne Fever. It was a jolting mistake but to my eyes he then just threw in the towel and his weak finish reminded me of his bumper debut. Funny how you notice the head carriage that bit more when they lose. The conclusion appears to be that he needs to dominate. He might be able to do that on a quicker surface in March but after this defeat the opposition should at least be fully aware of his vulnerability should he be reduced to chasing a lead.
Chancol travelled and jumped well enough but Carberry seemingly took an age to get a clear run and he then found very little under pressure. He is either nothing special or as I suspected he wants better ground. Probably a similar story for Somethingwonderful.
Bit annoyed with the bumper as the winner was the horse I suggested looking out for on debut. As you know he showed absolutely nothing that day so I can only assume Elliott was called in to offer some sort of explanation. To be honest I didn’t even notice he was running today.
Just a few thoughts.
Well done on Defy Logic. The first thing to note was how keen Walsh was to be on the front end with Champagne Fever. It was a jolting mistake but to my eyes he then just threw in the towel and his weak finish reminded me of his bumper debut. Funny how you notice the head carriage that bit more when they lose. The conclusion appears to be that he needs to dominate. He might be able to do that on a quicker surface in March but after this defeat the opposition should at least be fully aware of his vulnerability should he be reduced to chasing a lead.
Chancol travelled and jumped well enough but Carberry seemingly took an age to get a clear run and he then found very little under pressure. He is either nothing special or as I suspected he wants better ground. Probably a similar story for Somethingwonderful.
Bit annoyed with the bumper as the winner was the horse I suggested looking out for on debut. As you know he showed absolutely nothing that day so I can only assume Elliott was called in to offer some sort of explanation. To be honest I didn’t even notice he was running today.
I hadn’t noticed him either Stilvi
And his other runner pulled out as well, makes you wonder.The ground wasn’t to bad there today so Chancol probably falls in to the ‘nothing special’ category. However, he traveled well enough to suggest he should be able win a maiden hurdle. Today’s run wasn’t without promise. Thanks re Defy Logic
Just looking at tomorrow’s cards now.
Champagne James
looks the one to beat in the second race at Leopardstown, a two mile maiden hurdle. Ted Walsh aims his better horses at this meeting and his bumper form looks solid.
Mullins horses were disappointing today but
Arvika Ligeonniere
is the one to beat in the big race. I’ve expressed reservations about him left handed in the past but I don’t think he’ll need to be at his brilliant best to win this. Will probably decide on him in the morning.
In the big novice hurdle, I’m a Moyle Park fan, but I wouldn’t take 7/4. I don’t think The Tullow Tank is a proper Grade 1 horse over two miles, and would expect Arctic Fire to reverse the form if on song. The value is with
The Game Changer
for me, which probably comes as no surprise. He was well fancied to win the Land Rover Bumper, won by Moyle Park, but was brought down. The only blip since then was when Andrew Lynch got a rush of blood to the head in Gowran. 12/1 is too big, I’ll back him win only though as each way with seven runners doesn’t appeal.
I’m in a nice position in the Paddy Power Chase, as a place from
Cause Of Causes
will bring up the each way double with Flaxen Flare.
1.50 Leoparstown
The Game Changer
€20 win @ 12/1 (Boyles)HIDDEN CYCLONE
CANLAYMy tips tomorrow a shame Mullins filly got beat btw this Gord still says DEFY LOGIC no hope in arkle Tommy
i not backed horse in arkle yet.Sore head today but hopefully it won’t impair my judgement.
12.50 Leop
Champagne James
€20 win @ 6/41.20 Leop
Arvika Ligeonniere
€20 win @ 2/1
Fantastic when you stick by a horse and then see him go what looked an unsustainable clip with Arkle fav Champagne Fever, an still have enough in the tank up the Leopardstown hill to see off Trifolium. He has one hell of an engine that’s for sure. That was really a site to behold as nothing could go with the front two.
And his other runner pulled out as well, makes you wonder.
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