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Interesting bumper at Ascot tomorrow. Carningli sets the standard after his second in Cheltenham but I’m interested in the Irish raider
Joshua Lane
. He split the highly regarded Shaneshill and Wounded Warrior at Naas, finishing well up the rail. I wouldn’t have Eddie Harty down as one to tilt at windmills so he’s an eye-catching entry.
Keeping my fingers crossed the ground isn’t any worse than good to soft at Leopardstown. That would suit Home Farm, Bright New Dawn and Jezki. Just wish the last two named had different jockeys.
I had thought Ballycasey would go to Limerick but now it looks like he’s going to clash with Bright New Dawn. Didn’t back Bright New Dawn before the 20/1 disappeared so I left him be. I’d find it hard to split the pair to be honest, think Bright New Dawn has more speed but that Leopardstown hill can be a real leveler. Throw Morning Assembly into the mix and we’ve got a big RSA trial. Looking at the betting, Foxrock is the one I’d say overpriced at 12/1. If he runs I don’t think he’ll be that price. Not over priced enough that I’d back him though.
I can see Home Farm being a big gamble. I’ll back him soon I think at the risk of another ante post scalding. I like Cause Of Causes too however so I might play the two of them.
You not a Russell or McCoy fan Stilvi?
Hoping Annie Power skips the three mile hurdle as Solwhit will then be a big bet.
I had thought Ballycasey would go to Limerick but now it looks like he’s going to clash with Bright New Dawn. Didn’t back Bright New Dawn before the 20/1 disappeared so I left him be. I’d find it hard to split the pair to be honest, think Bright New Dawn has more speed but that Leopardstown hill can be a real leveler. Throw Morning Assembly into the mix and we’ve got a big RSA trial. Looking at the betting, Foxrock is the one I’d say overpriced at 12/1. If he runs I don’t think he’ll be that price. Not over priced enough that I’d back him though.
I can see Home Farm being a big gamble. I’ll back him soon I think at the risk of another ante post scalding. I like Cause Of Causes too however so I might play the two of them.
You not a Russell or McCoy fan Stilvi?
Hoping Annie Power skips the three mile hurdle as Solwhit will then be a big bet.
I just think Bright New Dawn is a class above Ballycasey. It was almost certainly a decent performance in conceding the weight to a race-fit rival and for me the most impressive part was the way he saw his race out when it came to a battle. Being a free running sort and first time out he could easily have folded. I am sure he will cope with good to soft but he moves so well you would think quicker ground would be to his advantage. In my opinion Ballycasey still remains something of a ‘talking horse’ and is definitely too short. Yes, he was running over an inadequate trip on chase debut but it was at Navan and my impression was that he benefitted from the front two not getting home. Despite market support Mount Colah didn’t enhance the form behind Mozoltov.
Russell has done me a few good turns, including Sir Des Champs and Naiad Du Misselot at the Festival. On the plus side he now seems to be riding the Gigginstown horses closer to the pace than in previous years. Having said that Bryan Cooper is the emerging force and he already has the experience of riding Bright New Dawn in a chase. That isn’t too say he is mistake free as evidenced by dropping his whip on Chute Hall and throwing away another race on a Gigginstown horse by inexplicably switching into the path of horse who was hanging towards the rail.
I judge McCoy more on what happens on the big occasions rather than his relentless desire to boot home two or three winners every day of the week. In my opinion he was at his best as a point and fire jockey but since joining Jonjo I believe he has developed into a not much better than average hold-up jockey. It can’t be coincidence that he rides so many horses who take a pull and I rarely see him produce a bungle free round on anything but of course some of these still win because they have so much in hand. Although he is always going to look better than the likes of Walsh and Leigh I don’t think he has pulled up that many trees on his trips to Ireland. Again on the proviso it doesn’t get too soft I think Jezki has a decent chance of turning over Hurricane Fly but I would be that much more hopeful if Geraghty was on board.
Danny Mullins did well to ride three winners at Fairyhouse but Leopardstown is likely to present a far more severe test of his abilities. I backed Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle but that was prior to the sale and it will be a surprise to me if he finishes in the two on his comeback. I really like Foxrock but I will be disappointed if he has enough pace to cope with Bright New Dawn.
Ascot 3.40
Joshua Lane
€10 e/w @ 5/1 (w/o Carningli) (PP)Stilvi, very interesting comments, will get back to you later as I’m on the phone now and typing takes forever
Interesting bumper at Ascot tomorrow. Carningli sets the standard after his second in Cheltenham but I’m interested in the Irish raider
Joshua Lane
. He split the highly regarded Shaneshill and Wounded Warrior at Naas, finishing well up the rail. I wouldn’t have Eddie Harty down as one to tilt at windmills so he’s an eye-catching entry.
It is an interesting race as I don’t think any of them are particularly crying out for soft ground. I think the favourite has by far the strongest form – the winner and third from last time are better than these – but he is very much a staying type and I wonder if he will reproduce it around Ascot. The Irish horse has been backed and Geraghty isn’t a negative but that Naas race was a falsely run affair and he did start 33/1. I always keep an eye on the ‘Minella’ horses and having backed the Case/Jacob gamble that never looked likely at Newbury it would be quite annoying to see this one go in. Probably best to expect the usual ‘educational’ ride from Jacob allowing the others a nice little start.
I just think Bright New Dawn is a class above Ballycasey. It was almost certainly a decent performance in conceding the weight to a race-fit rival and for me the most impressive part was the way he saw his race out when it came to a battle. Being a free running sort and first time out he could easily have folded. I am sure he will cope with good to soft but he moves so well you would think quicker ground would be to his advantage. In my opinion Ballycasey still remains something of a ‘talking horse’ and is definitely too short. Yes, he was running over an inadequate trip on chase debut but it was at Navan and my impression was that he benefitted from the front two not getting home. Despite market support Mount Colah didn’t enhance the form behind Mozoltov.
Quick ground would certainly help Bright New Dawn as he’s not short of speed. I think Foxrock will need plenty of rain but I can see him running well. Speaking of that Navan race Ballycasey won, I find it strange that Meade perseveres with Ned Buntline there. He barely stays two miles and Navan is very stiff. He’s entered again there tomorrow. When he gets an easier stamina test he could turn out to be a well handicapped animal.
Russell has done me a few good turns, including Sir Des Champs and Naiad Du Misselot at the Festival. On the plus side he now seems to be riding the Gigginstown horses closer to the pace than in previous years. Having said that Bryan Cooper is the emerging force and he already has the experience of riding Bright New Dawn in a chase. That isn’t too say he is mistake free as evidenced by dropping his whip on Chute Hall and throwing away another race on a Gigginstown horse by inexplicably switching into the path of horse who was hanging towards the rail.
I judge McCoy more on what happens on the big occasions rather than his relentless desire to boot home two or three winners every day of the week. In my opinion he was at his best as a point and fire jockey but since joining Jonjo I believe he has developed into a not much better than average hold-up jockey. It can’t be coincidence that he rides so many horses who take a pull and I rarely see him produce a bungle free round on anything but of course some of these still win because they have so much in hand. Although he is always going to look better than the likes of Walsh and Leigh I don’t think he has pulled up that many trees on his trips to Ireland. Again on the proviso it doesn’t get too soft I think Jezki has a decent chance of turning over Hurricane Fly but I would be that much more hopeful if Geraghty was on board.
I consider Russell to be an exceptional jockey on the big day. There are times on the lesser days when he’s a bit ‘easy’ on horses but I suppose that didn’t hurt the likes of First Lieutenant. In big races I think he has a very cool head. I understand where you’re coming from about McCoy, would prefer Ruby on board City Slicker as I feel the horse needs quiet handling. I’ve never had much success backing McCoy’s mounts so that could be the reason I prefer others
Danny Mullins did well to ride three winners at Fairyhouse but Leopardstown is likely to present a far more severe test of his abilities. I backed Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle but that was prior to the sale and it will be a surprise to me if he finishes in the two on his comeback. I really like Foxrock but I will be disappointed if he has enough pace to cope with Bright New Dawn.
Interesting bumper at Ascot tomorrow. Carningli sets the standard after his second in Cheltenham but I’m interested in the Irish raider
Joshua Lane
. He split the highly regarded Shaneshill and Wounded Warrior at Naas, finishing well up the rail. I wouldn’t have Eddie Harty down as one to tilt at windmills so he’s an eye-catching entry.
It is an interesting race as I don’t think any of them are particularly crying out for soft ground. I think the favourite has by far the strongest form – the winner and third from last time are better than these – but he is very much a staying type and I wonder if he will reproduce it around Ascot. The Irish horse has been backed and Geraghty isn’t a negative but that Naas race was a falsely run affair and he did start 33/1. I always keep an eye on the ‘Minella’ horses and having backed the Case/Jacob gamble that never looked likely at Newbury it would be quite annoying to see this one go in. Probably best to expect the usual ‘educational’ ride from Jacob allowing the others a nice little start.
What impressed me about the Naas run from Joshua Lane was that both Shaneshill and Wounded Warrior were up with the pace and nothing really came from the rear bar Harty’s horse. The way the race was run seemed to play into the hands of those at the front. Now I’m not saying Joshua Lane is better than Shaneshill as that horse would surely prefer a stronger run race himself and showed marked improvement last time. But I feel Joshua Lane is capable of making his presence felt in a bumper like this. I’ve backed without the Carningli who could be hard to beat. Not much support for the Minella horse early doors so you’re probably safe enough
I think Tara Rose was a perfect example of what I was trying to say about McCoy. Bungled virtually every flight such that the horse was a spent force three out and McCoy was standing up in the saddle. No doubt plenty of each-way money down the drain but as ever people will forget this if he rides a winner later on.
Interesting bumper at Ascot tomorrow. Carningli sets the standard after his second in Cheltenham but I’m interested in the Irish raider
Joshua Lane
. He split the highly regarded Shaneshill and Wounded Warrior at Naas, finishing well up the rail. I wouldn’t have Eddie Harty down as one to tilt at windmills so he’s an eye-catching entry.
It is an interesting race as I don’t think any of them are particularly crying out for soft ground. I think the favourite has by far the strongest form – the winner and third from last time are better than these – but he is very much a staying type and I wonder if he will reproduce it around Ascot. The Irish horse has been backed and Geraghty isn’t a negative but that Naas race was a falsely run affair and he did start 33/1. I always keep an eye on the ‘Minella’ horses and having backed the Case/Jacob gamble that never looked likely at Newbury it would be quite annoying to see this one go in. Probably best to expect the usual ‘educational’ ride from Jacob allowing the others a nice little start.
What impressed me about the Naas run from Joshua Lane was that both Shaneshill and Wounded Warrior were up with the pace and nothing really came from the rear bar Harty’s horse. The way the race was run seemed to play into the hands of those at the front. Now I’m not saying Joshua Lane is better than Shaneshill as that horse would surely prefer a stronger run race himself and showed marked improvement last time. But I feel Joshua Lane is capable of making his presence felt in a bumper like this. I’ve backed without the Carningli who could be hard to beat. Not much support for the Minella horse early doors so you’re probably safe enough
Crossbar rattled with Joshua Lane, beaten a neck. Thought he was going to go by but Pipe’s horse held him well. Would expect a good run from Wounded Warrior in the bumper at Navan tomorrow to boost the Shaneshill form again.
I see Mr Mole was very keen under AP Stilvi, before ploughing a couple of fences.
Crossbar rattled with Joshua Lane, beaten a neck. Thought he was going to go by but Pipe’s horse held him well. Would expect a good run from Wounded Warrior in the bumper at Navan tomorrow to boost the Shaneshill form again.
I see Mr Mole was very keen under AP Stilvi, before ploughing a couple of fences.
Yes, very bad luck in the last. Shame the bookmakers couldn’t price up AP having a nightmare as I would have landed quite a touch on that! Seriously, hard to believe he could have done much worse on any of them – it wasn’t as if he was on 33/1 outsiders either. Love to hear his explanation as to why he tried to stack them up in the last race on a thorough stayer.
Given that Jacob took half the race to try and settle Themanfrom Minella he showed enough to suggest he might be one to bear in mind for a 2m4f+ novice on better ground.
Gone with Pine Creek and Flaxen Flare tomorrow. Of the two I prefer Pine Creek in the hope that Ascot will suit him a good deal better than Cheltenham.
Decent beginners’ tomorrow at Navan. The three leading contenders are Ned Buntline (13/8), Moscow Mannon (9/4) and Some Tikket (5/1).
Firstly, I think Ned Buntline is very short. I know he’s held in very high regard and he should improve a lot from his reappearance but I’m not sure heavy ground at Navan will see him to best effect. He’s got plenty of speed but he’s not a powerful stayer and the Navan hill might find him out. I doubt Carberry will give him as aggressive a ride as McCoy did which should help him but he’s a bit short at 13/8.
Moscow Mannon was a useful novice hurdler and ran in that good Naas race which featured Annie Power, Defy Logic and Don Cossack. He’s since been moved to Henry De Bromhead and he’ll handle the ground well. He looks the type of horse to take to fences and is the one to beat here for me.
I got stung on
Some Tikket
when he fell at the last at this venue two runs back. He’s since ran poorly right handed on good ground at Fairyhouse; a return to soft ground and a left handed track should see a marked improvement on that run imo.
It looks between the three of them and Some Tikket looks the obvious value to me.
Navan 2.10
Some Tikket
€20 e/w @ 5/1- €137.48
Have taken the plunge with
Wounded Warrior
. Maybe Mullins’ horse is a machine but Meade’s has good form in the book behind Shaneshill and Joshua Lane. I’d expect him to improve on that run and he’ll probably like this soft ground.
Navan 3.25
Wounded Warrior
€20 win @ Evens- €157.48
No a great day today with a loss due to the tame finishing efforts of Some Tikket an City Slicker. Some Tikket has won over hurdles over 2m 4f on heavy so can’t help but feel something may be amiss with the horse when he finishes so weakly over two miles. Ned Buntline proved me wrong today with the benefit of Carberry on board, thought he gave him an excellent ride.
Wounded Warrior won the bumper so it wasn’t all bad, while Flaxen Flare got me a place in the Ladbroke. Hopefully Cause Of Causes will place in the Paddy Power Chase to bring up a nice each way double.
- €92.48
Tommy just to say happy christmas to you
Any thoughts on big races over christmas in ireland too i like so far
OUR CONNOR
HIDDEN CYCLONE
BALLYCASEYI see the ground has already gone soft and with an unsettled forecast ahead it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Festival is blighted by heavy ground. A real shame looking ahead to Cheltenham but I suppose we should count ourselves lucky if nothing gets abandoned.
Most of my fancies want better ground and I am very much hoping they pull out Bright New Dawn. He has been weak in the ante-post market and I think the ground has been the issue. I think it is pretty obvious Foxrock wants a stamina test but I am not so sure heavy ground is his ideal. The ground is against his challengers so it looks like another win for Hurricane Fly. Again the ground is far from ideal for Champagne Fever but he doesn’t have a lot to beat.
Any thoughts on Jody McGarvey? I have been watching him this season on The Cookie Jar purely because I remember her dam, Garrylogh, running for David Gandolfo many years ago. Fortunately, I picked the right time to back her yesterday and I thought the jockey gave her a very confident ride. The places she had previously gained were also in no small way due to the determined attitude of her rider. If only all jockeys followed the similar example in riding for the each-way.
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