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Workmanlike performance from Briar Hill sees Faugheen cut to 6/1 for the Neptune. I’d rather plunder the 5/1 to win any race just in case he goes for the spuds!
Win Any Cheltenham Race
Faugheen
€20 win @ 5/1 (PP)- €6.73
I noted
Rupert Lamb
as one to keep onside of after his win at Naas in November. He lost lots of ground with some slow jumps that day yet still won quite impressively. he ground would also have been plenty quick for him and he’ll get it more to his liking tomorrow at Thurles. If he gets his jumping together he could be quite smart. Also, he beat Toner D’Oudairies fair and square by four lengths at Leoardstown last season. On official ratings he has ground to make up on that rival but I think he’s capable of beating him again. Davy Russell rides for Gigginstown on Make A Track and he’s also respected, although I don’t think he’s as good as the other pair.
Thurles 1.10
Rupert Lamb
€20 win @ 13/8 (PP)- €26.73
Tommy,Listen to your King and listen carefully.Every man and his dog know ‘Bobs worth’ is a very worthy 2/1fav for a repeat Gold cup win and their lies the problem.Horses just dont win back to back Gold cups and it doesn’t matter how we tart it up the stats are rock solid on this one.Yes we know ‘Kauto’ coulda/shoulda/woulda but he didn’t and yes we know ‘Best Mate’ did but go back 40 years and the stats tell you that 99% of Gold cup winners dont follow up the following year.Having said that is 2/1 generous? No! So what about the horse who constantly chases him home at 14/1 and just imagine if ‘Bob’ doesn’t make it there then
First Lieutenant
goes off at 5/1.We both follow the Gigginstown horses closely and I’ve already said I wouldn’t have put anyone off ‘SDS’ but him out now leaves the door open for Mouses charge to definitely go for Gold and leave the Ryanair for ‘Cue Card’……….You with me yet? 14/1 e/w with Ladbrokes and Hills is still Xmas mate,Get On.Your King knows,just look at my past Gold cup record.
Tommy,Listen to your King and listen carefully.Every man and his dog know ‘Bobs worth’ is a very worthy 2/1fav for a repeat Gold cup win and their lies the problem.Horses just dont win back to back Gold cups and it doesn’t matter how we tart it up the stats are rock solid on this one.Yes we know ‘Kauto’ coulda/shoulda/woulda but he didn’t and yes we know ‘Best Mate’ did but go back 40 years and the stats tell you that 99% of Gold cup winners dont follow up the following year.Having said that is 2/1 generous? No! So what about the horse who constantly chases him home at 14/1 and just imagine if ‘Bob’ doesn’t make it there then
First Lieutenant
goes off at 5/1.We both follow the Gigginstown horses closely and I’ve already said I wouldn’t have put anyone off ‘SDS’ but him out now leaves the door open for Mouses charge to definitely go for Gold and leave the Ryanair for ‘Cue Card’……….You with me yet? 14/1 e/w with Ladbrokes and Hills is still Xmas mate,Get On.Your King knows,just look at my past Gold cup record.
Waaaaaaaaay ahead of you there Gordy
Having seen an excellent post by ‘MasterMinded’ in the Cheltenham section I had another look at the Gold Cup. Bobs Worth is solid as the come at 2/1 imo but 2/1 isn’t really a price to be taking with 10 weeks to go is it.
I was with you on First Lieutenant in the RSA Gord and I led the charge on him for the Ryanair last year when he was unfortunate to meet a class act in Cue Card, which I hadn’t foreseen!
The thing about this years Gold Cup is that there only seems a handful of potential challengers to Bobs Worth’s crown. I’d take First Lieutenant over Silviniaco Conti on good ground, Cue Card could go to the Ryanair while you’re left looking to the likes of Boston Bob, Bog Warrior and Last Instalment as surprise packages after that. Those three are pretty unlikely to run so it’s hard to see what could knock First Lieutenant out of the places.
Silviniaco Conti being 4/1 with First Lieutenant being 14/1 makes not an ounce of sense to me. I’m going to sleep on it and decide tomorrow whether to draw swords in the name of the Lieutenant once again.
Sir Des Champs, now there’s a horse one could follow in to battle with full confidence
Waaaaaaaaay ahead of you there Gordy
To be way ahead of me saying
First Lieutenant
is a Gold cup horse is like saying
Dawn approach
would win last years Guineas before ‘Oscar Pistorius’ learnt what lying was.You and Tommy both remind me of a young me,dedicated studiers of horses,still a bit wet behind the ears but both you young Princes have the ability to be ‘Kings’.I’m not saying you’ll ever rise to the echelons of myself but I have every faith in the pair of you of putting up at least one 20/1 Ante-Post winner 6 months ahead of the day of reckoning……….40/1 winners? Leave that to the legend!
I’ve backed Faugheen at 8s and 6s for the Albert and Neptune with Vic, at least I’ll get a free bet if he doesn’t run in either
Waaaaaaaaay ahead of you there Gordy
To be way ahead of me saying
First Lieutenant
is a Gold cup horse is like saying
Dawn approach
would win last years Guineas before ‘Oscar Pistorius’ learnt what lying was.You and Tommy both remind me of a young me,dedicated studiers of horses,still a bit wet behind the ears but both you young Princes have the ability to be ‘Kings’.I’m not saying you’ll ever rise to the echelons of myself but I have every faith in the pair of you of putting up at least one 20/1 Ante-Post winner 6 months ahead of the day of reckoning……….40/1 winners? Leave that to the legend!
Thanks for the kind words Gord but I hardly feel like I’ve earned my stripes this season. What are your thoughts on the Supreme this year mate? I know it’s a race you like to home in on.
Thanks for the kind words Gord but I hardly feel like I’ve earned my stripes this season. What are your thoughts on the Supreme this year mate? I know it’s a race you like to home in on.
Obviously when you study Ante-Post Boz its easy to be influenced by market forces but I never felt comfortable about
Briar Hill
being the 10/1 fav for the 2014 ‘Supreme’,I always felt
Regal Encore
was the horse to take from the race but again I still wasn’t getting the ‘Al ferof’ feeling I wanted.One of my all time greatest touches was
Arcalis
winning the race back in 2005,I wasn’t bothered in the slightest he got beat in the Xmas hurdle by ‘Harchibald’ before he romped home at Cheltenham,I made a healthy 4 figure sum that day and still wear an Armani Grey/Black suit in his colour in honour of him.Since the 21st century started I cant remember not having a horse placed at least in every running of my Fav race of the year,most at double figure Ante-Post prices.This year I’m not waivering from a horse who’s clock is ticking very slowly in experience but physically/Visually he is a ‘Supreme’ sort.
Tiger Cliffs
the name,20/1’s the game and I keep taking it.Legends aren’t born they’re created!
I’ve backed Faugheen at 8s and 6s for the Albert and Neptune with Vic, at least I’ll get a free bet if he doesn’t run in either
I went for the either race bet today, but I already have bets on him for the Neptune at 16s and 12s, so hopefully he’ll go there!
Briar Hill was workmanlike enough today while Faugheen was very keen over three miles at Christmas so I think it would bring the best out of both horses to do a switcheroo next time out.
Thanks for the kind words Gord but I hardly feel like I’ve earned my stripes this season. What are your thoughts on the Supreme this year mate? I know it’s a race you like to home in on.
Obviously when you study Ante-Post Boz its easy to be influenced by market forces but I never felt comfortable about
Briar Hill
being the 10/1 fav for the 2014 ‘Supreme’,I always felt
Regal Encore
was the horse to take from the race but again I still wasn’t getting the ‘Al ferof’ feeling I wanted.One of my all time greatest touches was
Arcalis
winning the race back in 2005,I wasn’t bothered in the slightest he got beat in the Xmas hurdle by ‘Harchibald’ before he romped home at Cheltenham,I made a healthy 4 figure sum that day and still wear an Armani Grey/Black suit in his colour in honour of him.Since the 21st century started I cant remember not having a horse placed at least in every running of my Fav race of the year,most at double figure Ante-Post prices.This year I’m not waivering from a horse who’s clock is ticking very slowly in experience but physically/Visually he is a ‘Supreme’ sort.
Tiger Cliffs
the name,20/1’s the game and I keep taking it.Legends aren’t born they’re created!
Thanks Gord (I think
)The Supreme is a race I’ve often got big prices on horses in but never actually backed the winner. If someone told me that a Royal Bond and Future Champions novice hurdle winner would be 14/1 after those victories I’d have told them to f*** off but that’s the case! The Tullow Tank has been the dominant novice hurdler in Ireland this year but many, including myself, remain unconvinced. I didn’t fancy him to win at Christmas but he was an easy winner.
However, an eight length beating of King Of The Picts doesn’t read as extraordinary and he could also end up in the Neptune. I’d prefer Vautour, who slammed Lieutenant Colonel on debut and that horse has since hacked up at Fairyhouse.
I’d rate The Liquidator best of the English but the way the market looks it wouldn’t be a surprise of the winner has yet to jump a hurdle!
Thurles 1.10
Rupert Lamb
€20 win @ 13/8 (PP)Really hope you win with this one Tommy, as don’t want Toner winning over 2m2f. Rupert should do it ok.
Looks a decent enough race, had Make A Track last time he won at a decent price……….did I bet him on his own, or was he the only winner in a Lucky 31?
Good to see a Monday meeting in Ireland, feels like ages since we had one. Like the look of Gibbstown in the 1340 at around 16’s, definitely going to have a go with him.
A staying on second would be ideal for you I reckon
It’s nice to have an Irish meeting on a Monday alright, even if it is pretty ordinary stuff. Another I’ll probably back tomorrow is
Cloudy Rock
in the mares’ bumper. I’ve been trying my best to stay away from bumpers this season so backing in a mares’ bumper at Thurles may seem a bit odd but she could be a machine.
She’s closely related to
Shutthefrontdoor
and won her point as she liked by 15 lengths. The runner up went on to be second again, beaten half a length, before winning by 12 lengths last time, so the form looks solid enough.
Sean O’Brien unleashed Golantilla on the track this time last year showing he’s well capable of handling a good one, and the presence of a Mullins mare will hopefully keep Cloudy Rock’s price above evens.
I’ll keep a close eye on Cloudy Rock then Tommy, not got a bumper horse this year, well apart from a horse called Starplex I’m following. I’d doubt he’d got Cheltenham though
Been waiting on
Kings Speaker
of Willie Mullins, but he’s kind of off the radar at the moment.
Been looking at the Ryanair today and think I have found one at 20/1. Cue Card and First Lieutenant seem more likely to go for the Gold Cup, meaning there is value to be had here if you know what’s going to be targeted at the race.
I had thought Benefficient was a decent price before he won at Leopardstown but I wouldn’t be tempted now at a general 8/1. Particularly as I think he may have been beaten in the Jewson but for a rival falling at the second last.
That horse is Willie Mullins’
Marito
. He would surely have gone very close that day and I reckon he’ll be the Closutton representative in this race. He’s been in good form this season, following up on a fine second to Hurricane Fly with a smooth victory over Roi Du Mee. He travelled powerfully that day, looking as if he’ll have no trouble stepping up in class.
Considering the doubts about a number of representatives near the head of the market, I think Marito is worth a poke at 20/1.
Ryanair Chase
Marito
€10 win @ 20/1 (PP)- €56.73
I’ve already lost €50 on ante post bets for Cheltenham and that figure will probably rise in the weeks leading up to that glorious week in March. I’ve been lucky enough to avoid having too many non runners in recent years so hopefully my main ones will get there in one piece. I’ve €170 worth of live ante post bets, listed below.
Cheltenham bets
WIN ANY RACE
Faugheen
€30 win @ 5/1 (PP)ARKLE TROPHY
Defy Logic
€7.50 e/w @ 20/1 (BV)CHAMPION HURDLE
Annie Power
€5 e/w @ 25/1 (BV)Un De Sceaux
€5 win @ 25/1 (PP)NEPTUNE
Faugheen
€5 e/w @ 16/1 (PP)Faugheen
€10 win @ 12/1 (WH)RSA CHASE
Ballycasey
€10 e/w @ 25/1 (BV)JEWSON
Felix Yonger
€10 e/w @ 12/1 (BV)Felix Yonger
€10 e/w @ 8/1 (PP)Felix Yonger
€20 win @ 14/1 (BV)RYANAIR
Marito
€10 win @ 20/1 (PP)Think I’ve made a mistake, Defy Logic isn’t trained by WP Mullins?
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