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I’d make Faugheen 1/4 and Felix around 4/7 giving weight tomorrow so a big double with Paddy Power at 1/2 and 4/6 looks in order. 1/2 on Faugheen in particular looks waaaay wrong.
Navan 1.15 – Faugheen (1/2)
Navan 2.20 – Felix Yonger (4/6)
€40 win double (PP)Still can’t believe PP opened up 1/2 on Faugheen, went off 1/9
Two easy winners anyway, very happy with ante post bets on both as well.
- €165.32
I’m very sweet on
Arvika Ligeonniere
in Sunday’s John Durkan Chase. This is likely to be a pipe opener for Sir Desmond, who will be getting good ground for the first time since his novice chasing days. Wouldn’t surprise me if he won but if he runs the same race as he did last year I’m sure connections, and I, will be very satisfied. Flemenstar is the one Arvika has to beat, an I’m confident ‘The Camel’ can do it. Flemenstar looked to me like the tank was almost empty in this last year, and while the ground will be much less testing on Sunday, that could also be against him. Arvika Ligeonniere is an excellent jumper going right handed and if Flemenstar jumps like he did last time then Arvika will gain lengths at every obstacle. If Stephen Curran’s horse jumps like he can, then we could be in for quite a treat if the two go at it from some way out. The fear I’d have would be if the two market leaders cut each other’s throats up front, SDC will mow them down, but I think Ruby will be alive to this danger and track Flemenstar.
I’m putting Arvika in an each way double with
Captain Conan
in Saturday’s Tingle Creek. Sire De Grugy is favourite there but Captain Conan beat him quite easily last year before winning the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novice Chase on the same card last year. He was then upped in trip to two and a half miles and I thought he was a bit underwhelming, although he picked up two more Grade 1’s in the process, finishing his season with a smooth success over an easy 2m 4f at Aintree. Back over two miles I think he’ll take beating on Saturday, but he’s the less confident half of the double.
Tingle Creek – Captain Conan (9/4)
John Durkan Chase – Arvika Ligonniere (2/1)
€10 e/w double (PP)Captain Conan placed and with only three runners in the Durkan (Flemenstar a non runner) Arvika Ligeonniere only needs to get around to give me a mighty profit of €0.30 on the bet.
Actually a bit miffed I didn’t have a score on Arvika on Thursday. Too short now at 4/7. I’d actually be tempted to take him on with Sir Des Champs.
Actually a bit miffed I didn’t have a score on Arvika on Thursday. Too short now at 4/7. I’d actually be tempted to take him on with Sir Des Champs.
Corals 5/2 would suggest they don’t think it will be too competitive. Would expect a little more from Sir Des Champs than about 3/4 of the field in that opening maiden hurdle though!
Actually a bit miffed I didn’t have a score on Arvika on Thursday. Too short now at 4/7. I’d actually be tempted to take him on with Sir Des Champs.
Corals 5/2 would suggest they don’t think it will be too competitive. Would expect a little more from Sir Des Champs than about 3/4 of the field in that opening maiden hurdle though!
It was narrowed down to 7 from 27 after 50 yards, "Triers to the front!"
I think
The Game Changer
has a good shout in the first tomorrow at Punchestown. He was third behind Ange Belafre last time but if he’s held up longer he should be thereabouts. He hit the front after the second last that day and then made a bad error at the last. He needs to come with a late run imo and I’d say Davy Russell will be at pains to hold him up tomorrow.
Punchestown 12.30
The Game Changer
€15 e/w @ 6/1 (PP)Elsewhere I like
Bright New Dawn
but I think 15/8 is short enough. At Cork,
Rathvinden
is the one I’m looking forward to seeing. Another Mullins’ horse who falls into the ‘could be anything’ category.
I think
The Game Changer
has a good shout in the first tomorrow at Punchestown. He was third behind Ange Belafre last time but if he’s held up longer he should be thereabouts. He hit the front after the second last that day and then made a bad error at the last. He needs to come with a late run imo and I’d say Davy Russell will be at pains to hold him up tomorrow.
Punchestown 12.30
The Game Changer
€15 e/w @ 6/1 (PP)Elsewhere I like
Bright New Dawn
but I think 15/8 is short enough. At Cork,
Rathvinden
is the one I’m looking forward to seeing. Another Mullins’ horse who falls into the ‘could be anything’ category.
I dare say a few eyes will be on Bright New Dawn. Like so many Gigginstown horses he looks the part and although he can race freely he is from the famous ‘Shuil’ line so stamina shouldn’t realy be an issue. Just a little concerned he is making his debut a little late in the season so you wonder if schooling has been plain sailing. Last time I looked he was being backed but with the little doubts I have decided to have a small EW on Dushybeag at 25/1. If the favourite translates the potential he can’t win but his run behind Foxrock isn’t too bad and Geraghty replaces Heskin.
The bumper is interesting and I have gone with Sucker Punch to beat the favourite. Drying ground should help. Should also give a line to Mullins’s other point winner Tarare. Newcomers to watch are Flame And Flower and Lean Araig but they will need to be pretty good to trouble the front two.
Very happy with The Game Changer and Rathvinden.
I’ve backed
Bright New Dawn
now that Sizing Gold is out of the race. I was far more afraid of him than I am of Dogora, although considering the Mullins domination it’d be no surprise if he wins.
Punchestown 2.35
Bright New Dawn
€20 win @ 6/5 (PP)
Good luck with Dushybeag Stilvi, definitely looks overpriced on the Foxrock form. Hopefully he’ll come second to Bright New DawnWell done.
I was impressed particularly with the way he found that little bit extra on the run in despite having run freely. Had a little bit on for both the Jewson and RSA. At this stage I think they will keep him to 2m4f but he is capable of stepping up as per his breeding. Looked as if going left-handed should help.
Short priced double goes in as well! Didn’t think the bumper winner was that impressive.
The least said about mine the better. I assume even the Irish stewards will be calling in Noel Meade for an explanation. Patrick Mullins gets a lot of stick but I would take him over Carberry every day of the week.
Tingle Creek – Captain Conan (9/4)
John Durkan Chase – Arvika Ligonniere (2/1)
€10 e/w double (PP)Got my maths wrong and actually made a small loss on this! Raging I didn’t back Arvika in a single when he was 5/2. Returns
I’ve backed
Bright New Dawn
now that Sizing Gold is out of the race. I was far more afraid of him than I am of Dogora, although considering the Mullins domination it’d be no surprise if he wins.
Punchestown 2.35
Bright New Dawn
€20 win @ 6/5 (PP)Returns
€20 double on Rathvinden (4/5) and Black Hurcules (4/7)
Punchestown 12.30
The Game Changer
€15 e/w @ 6/1 (PP)Returns
+ €12.52
Well done.
I was impressed particularly with the way he found that little bit extra on the run in despite having run freely. Had a little bit on for both the Jewson and RSA. At this stage I think they will keep him to 2m4f but he is capable of stepping up as per his breeding. Looked as if going left-handed should help.
Short priced double goes in as well! Didn’t think the bumper winner was that impressive.
The least said about mine the better. I assume even the Irish stewards will be calling in Noel Meade for an explanation. Patrick Mullins gets a lot of stick but I would take him over Carberry every day of the week.
Thanks Stilvi. Are you referring to the bumper horse? Was first beaten, you’d think something amiss as he was well touted.
For a moment I thought Black Hercules was going to power away for an easy win but he only maintained his lead. Did it well enough I thought, although he wasn’t as impressive as Shaneshill or Royal Caviar in winning recently.
Davy Russell gave The Game Changer a brilliant ride imo. Andrew ‘hit the front two out’ Lynch produced him far too early last time out but I couldn’t have any such complaints today.
I was impressed with Bright New Dawn too. He was giving Dogora 12 lbs and looked like he was holding him well. At times he jumped a bit to his left so a left handed track might see him improve too. He jumped well on the whole though. If he’s still 20/1 with Boyles tomorrow for the RSA I’ll add him to Ballycasey.
Did you see Rathvinden? Another nice novice hurdler for Team Closutton.
Just want to say how relieved and happy I was to see Sir Des Champs back on his feet after the Durkan, that was a horrible fall.
Tommy they were talking of a novice who won on debut at weekend he could be next SIMONSIG think it is RATHVINDEN he looks a serious horse.
Any thoughts on past weekend racing i like to see ARVIKA in king george but not be this year.
COLOUR SQUADRON i like at Cheltenham at weekend.
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