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Was meant to be writing a literature review today but instead got hooked by National Hunt fever. Been looking at replays all day and formed some ante post opinions:
Grandouet
would surely have gone mighty close in the Champion Hurdle and if he stays sound I see no reason why he won’t be in the shake up this time around. A lot depends on the well being of one H. Fly. Take him out of the race and imo Grandouet is the best of the rest. At 12/1 I shall be getting involved at some stage.
Boston Bob
wins the RSA. He’s a chaser all over and I’m certain he wasn’t right at Cheltenham. His form with Lyreen Legend is as good as any novice hurdle form last season considering he was giving him the best part of a stone on ground which he apparently hated. I can see him going off very short. 10/1 will do nicely to make amends for recent crossbar efforts First Lieutenant (20/1) and Jessies Dream (16/1).
Don Cossack
surely needs further than 2 miles. Wouldn’t touch him for the Supreme at this stage anyway as there’s a good chance he’ll end up in the Neptune. However I’ll be surprised if he and
Un Atout
don’t have a part to play somewhere.
Champagne Fever
looks a nice Jewson candidate. His trainer has Boston Bob for the longer race and when he sees how the Jewson has crowned Sir Des Champs
he’ll be more than happy to go for the less prestigious race with this lad.Montbazon
looks a big price for the Champion Hurdle at 40/1. I don’t expect him to win it but he won’t be too far away.
Quito De La Roque
still has a part to play in the big races this season. On the back of two below par efforts he has been written off by many but he has his excuses imo. However, his liking for soft ground and his recent troubles make it seem unlikely he’ll have a crack at the Gold Cup unless it comes up soft. Same applies to
Last Instalment
.
I’m new to Betfair but
Grands Crus
looks a good back to lay opportunity for the Gold Cup.
Finians Rainbow
will be hard to beat in the Ryanair, and the fact he’s stepping up in trip surely tells us everything about
Sprinter Sacre
.
Sir Des Champs
wins Gold
Now then, Grandouet 12/1, Boston Bob 10/1, Finians Rainbow 7/1, Sir Des Champs 6/1; works out at about 8000/1 for the acca
Didn’t think I was going to be backing anything tomorrow but if racing gets the go ahead
Joncol
will be very hard to beat in the Grade 3 chase. I thought he’d be an even money shot but low and behold he’s 7/4. Follow The Plan is very in and out and prefers good ground, and also has to bounce back after a tame effort last time. It feels like Joncol’s been around for ever but he’s still only a 9yo. He suffered an injury in the Lexus but has been given plenty of time to recover, and he’ll love the ground should racing go ahead. Also, he receives weight from all bar Arabella Boy and I think he should win easily.
4.15 Punchestown
Joncol
€20 win @ 7/4- €150
€10 win double:
Waaheb 4/7 and War Correspondent 11/8
€5 win treble:
Waaheb 4/7, War Correspondent 11/8, Cops And Robbers 2/5
Noble Prince
is a massive price for tomorrow’s Old Roan at 6/1 imo. Things didn’t go right for him last season after his reappearance, bumping into Big Zeb on soft ground a couple of times and pulling up injured in the Ryanair. He receives 6lbs from Wishfull Thinking who he beat by 4 lengths in the Jewson a year and a half ago. Gauvain is a hit and miss sort but first time out might be the time to catch him so he’s feared as the main danger.
- €185
€10 win
Rathlin
@ 7/2 PP
€20 win Mount Benbulben @ 7/4 WH
€20 win Lyreen Legend @ 15/8 Totesport- €235
You’d have made some money laying the horses I’ve backed since the start of the summer!
King George 2012
Grands Crus
€10 e/w @ 8/1 William HillArkle 2013
Trifolium
€5 e/w @ 25/1 BoylesportsGold Cup 2013
Flemenstar
€10 win @ 14/1 William HillChampion Chase 2013
Sizing Europe
€10 e/w @ 10/1 Paddy PowerAnother ante post:
RSA Chase 2013
Boston Bob
€10 e/w @ 10/1 Totesport- €197.50
Will be interesting this weekend Tommy to see if QDLR can get the better of Sizing Europe again over the 3 mile trip.
Intersting that PP have opened 9/4 for both while Ladbrokes go 6/4 SE and 4/1 QDLR. I think something was clearly a miss with Quito last season and if straight and back to his previous seasons form will be tough to beat over the trip, certainly worth a chance at 4/1.
Hope you didn’t get scalded with Quito Pants. I thought Davy Russell should have been more positive on him, he was staying all the way to the line but perhaps he wasn’t as fit as they thought they had him. Either way, it was a better performance than in the race last season where he didn’t travel a yard.
I see one of my novice chasers to follow runs tomorrow in
Dedigout
. He’ll probably be quite short in the betting in what looks essentially a match with Noel Meade’s Knockgraffin King. His form with my RSA dark horse
Lyreen Legend
reads well and he should be hard to beat.
I’m afraid I did Tommy! Your right he travelled ok through the race and was coming back at them when it was too late, hopefully he’ll come on for that but he’s below Gold Cup class in my opinion, maybe they should aim him at The National?
Stoney
had a nice little day out for himself on debut and with Dessie Hughes banging in the winners he should take the bumper at Thurles.
3.55 Thurles
Stoney
€10 win @ 2/1 (PP)- €207.50
3.00 Cheltenham ~
Uncle Junior
€5 e/w @ 5/1 (Totesport)
Did me a couple of favours last season when winning today’s race and again at Punchestown when he came from another parish. I’m expecting a bold show today.
Paddy Power Gold Cup ~
Triolo D’Alene
€5 e/w @ 12/1 (Totesport)
Was a strong favorite for the Centenary Novices Chase won by Hunt Ball at the Cheltenham Festival. Finished tamely and has since had a wind op. Barry Gerathy doing 10-01 is a tip in itself considering the lowest he’s ridden in the past 12 months is 10-02. I expect him to go off single figures.
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