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This may sound a silly question…

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  • #20588
    Professortrubshawe
    Member
    • Total Posts 505

    …but can anyone take me through the best ways and the pitfalls of tracking your own profit, to a pound stake and all that. I am finally disciplining myself in this department and I want to make sure I’m doing it right and not kidding myself.

    #383931
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    No problem:Keep your money in a buscuit tin and count it very day. If you open it and it’s empty you’re losing if you can’t get the lid on your winning. Hope that helps :P

    Alternatively use an excel spreadsheet.

    Build in a calculation of say 10% of your bank and put that same amount on ever horse.

    No exceptions. If you have doubts and think I’ll just have 5% on this one DO NOT back that horse.

    Don’t back doubles or trebles singles only and don’t be shy to back place only when you have a niggling doubt. When you are backing a percentage of your bank a 1.2 winner can be worth a lot of money as it increases your stake on all future bets, whereas a even money shot that loses by a short head can cost you a small fortune long term

    As your bank goes up your bets get bigger and keep doing that until you reach what your max bet is then use that amount instead of 10% of your bank. Lets say that amount is 100 pounds if your back goes below 1000 punds revert back to 10% of your bank.

    If you get to that stage it will take forever to skin you. Break the rules and you shouldn’t have asked in the first place :wink:

    Good luck!!!

    #383992
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Not exactly sure what you are asking Prof. :?

    Is it to do with stakes as H indicates?

    If that is so, rule 1 is:

    Don’t listen to H. :lol:
    Putting the same amount of money on a 20/1 shot as you would a 6/4 chance is asking for trouble (imo). Latter has a hell of a lot bigger chance of winning, so should get more money staked.

    Stakes should represent a combination of three things:

    How much money you have to play with.
    How much chance you believe the horse has of winning.
    How much value there is in the bet.

    In my betting:
    Something I believe has a 9% chance of winning (fair 10/1) is backed if 13/1 or better is available (ie a little bit better than the "fair price" of 10/1, with a small margin for error).

    The stake for any 9% chance is 9 points, plus however much value is in the bet.
    If top price is 13/1 (fair 7.1% chance)… Then I subtract the bookies price from my price (9 – 7.1) = 1.9. Then times that figure by 4 = 7.6. So add 7.6 to your percentage 9 = 16.6 rounded up. So the bet is

    17 points @ 13/1 = 221 points profit.

    If the 9% chance is available at 20/1 (fair 4.8% chance)… Then subtract the bookmaker’s price (9 – 4.8) = 4.2. Multiply by 4 = 16.8 points. Add the 9 = 25.8 rounded up. So with bigger

    value

    than the 13/1 shot, the bet is

    26 points @ 20/1 = 520 points profit.

    If I believe a horse has a 45% chance of winning (fair 6/5 (almost)) and is available @ top price 6/4 (fair 40%), the stake is 45 points plus (45 – 40) = 5. Multiplied by 4 = 20. With 45 + 20 = 65. So

    65 points @ 6/4 = 97.5 points profit.

    More money staked on the 6/4 shot than the 20/1 shot because the former has a far better chance of winning. Yet the 20/1 shot, with less money risked, deserves to win more money.

    If I believe a horse has a 45% chance and is available at top price 7/4 (fair 36.4)… 45 – 36.4 = 8.6 x 4 = 34.4 + 45 = 79.4 rounded down.

    79 points @ 7/4 = 138.25 points profit.

    The 7/4 shot deserves to have more money on / win more than the 6/4 shot, because it is better value.

    Those with a bigger chance of winning should have a greater amount staked. Yet those with less chance of winning should win the greater amount, because the amount risked is comparatively smaller.

    All in my opinion of course. :wink:

    With all bets, the amount one point equals is the same. Until I am enough in profit to increase the amount one point is worth. Of course if my profit goes down the amount one point is worth goes down.

    No need for "banks".
    If a punter can afford to bet £17 on a 13/1 shot, £26 @ 20/1, £65 @ 6/4 and £79 @ 7/4… then 1 point should equal £1.
    If a punter can only afford to risk £8.50 on @ 13/1, £13 @ 20/1, £32.50 @ 6/4 and £39.50 @ 7/4… then 1 point should equal 50p.
    If a punter can afford £34 @ 13/1, £52 @ 20/1, £130 @ 6/4 and £158 @ 7/4… then 1 point should equal £2.
    And of course, anything in between.

    Realise you do to a pound stake, the above is an alternative if you’re a value punter.

    Value Is Everything
    #383997
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    If your question is whether you should calculate a profit/loss, then the answer is yes.

    One pitfall though is confidence.
    I have been known (particularly in the past) to delay calculating an update to my profit/loss because knowing I am down significantly on the period in question, it can effect confidence and so effect the way that I look at a race. So coming to the wrong conclusion of where the value bet is.

    If you have the same problem Prof, you could decide to write down every bet but not add all the figures up until the end of the season. Or just update your profit/loss after a good win/s.

    Value Is Everything
    #383998
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    One easy way to keep an account of your bets Proff, is to write them all in a thread on theracingforum, in Daily Lays And Plays.

    Value Is Everything
    #384001
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    I think it’s got a lot to do with what kind of person you are, whether you are in n the game for the love of horses or purely money.

    No offence to Ginger but he’s cold and calculated and plays numbers backing 2 and 3 horses in nearly every race. His reasoning is sound but I couldn’t bet like he does.

    To say you should not put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as you do a 1/1 money shot is foolish to my way of thinking as much as my way is foolish to Gingers way of thinking.

    My motto: Either you think a horse will win or you don’t.

    Ginger by backing other horses in the same race and increasing his liability can turn a 20/1 shot into a 2/1 shot and as long as he’s in profit he’s happy.

    If I think a 20/1 shot will win and my liability for each bet I have is 100 or 1000 pounds I’ll back it. If I am in doubt whether the horse is 1/2 or 100/1 I will not bet.

    I’d hate to think I had taken Ginger’s advise when backing Don’t Push It for the national it would have cost me more than Ginger could win in a lifetime using his method. :P

    Listen to your ol’ Da. Ginger is nuts :wink:

    He’s lucky we all like Ginger Nuts on here or he’d have no friends at all :mrgreen:

    #384002
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Not exactly sure what you are asking Prof. :?

    Is it to do with stakes as H indicates?

    If that is so, rule 1 is:

    Don’t listen to H. :lol:
    Putting the same amount of money on a 20/1 shot as you would a 6/4 chance is asking for trouble (imo). Latter has a hell of a lot bigger chance of winning, so should get more money staked.

    Stakes should represent a combination of three things:

    How much money you have to play with.
    How much chance you believe the horse has of winning.
    How much value there is in the bet.

    In my betting:
    Something I believe has a 9% chance of winning (fair 10/1) is backed if 13/1 or better is available (ie a little bit better than the "fair price" of 10/1, with a small margin for error).

    The stake for any 9% chance is 9 points, plus however much value is in the bet.
    If top price is 13/1 (fair 7.1% chance)… Then I subtract the bookies price from my price (9 – 7.1) = 1.9. Then times that figure by 4 = 7.6. So add 7.6 to your percentage 9 = 16.6 rounded up. So the bet is

    17 points @ 13/1 = 221 points profit.

    If the 9% chance is available at 20/1 (fair 4.8% chance)… Then subtract the bookmaker’s price (9 – 4.8) = 4.2. Multiply by 4 = 16.8 points. Add the 9 = 25.8 rounded up. So with bigger

    value

    than the 13/1 shot, the bet is

    26 points @ 20/1 = 520 points profit.

    If I believe a horse has a 45% chance of winning (fair 6/5 (almost)) and is available @ top price 6/4 (fair 40%), the stake is 45 points plus (45 – 40) = 5. Multiplied by 4 = 20. With 45 + 20 = 65. So

    65 points @ 6/4 = 97.5 points profit.

    More money staked on the 6/4 shot than the 20/1 shot because the former has a far better chance of winning. Yet the 20/1 shot, with less money risked, deserves to win more money.

    If I believe a horse has a 45% chance and is available at top price 7/4 (fair 36.4)… 45 – 36.4 = 8.6 x 4 = 34.4 + 45 = 79.4 rounded down.

    79 points @ 7/4 = 138.25 points profit.

    The 7/4 shot deserves to have more money on / win more than the 6/4 shot, because it is better value.

    Those with a bigger chance of winning should have a greater amount staked. Yet those with less chance of winning should win the greater amount, because the amount risked is comparatively smaller.

    All in my opinion of course. :wink:

    With all bets, the amount one point equals is the same. Until I am enough in profit to increase the amount one point is worth. Of course if my profit goes down the amount one point is worth goes down.

    No need for "banks".
    If a punter can afford to bet £17 on a 13/1 shot, £26 @ 20/1, £65 @ 6/4 and £79 @ 7/4… then 1 point should equal £1.
    If a punter can only afford to risk £8.50 on @ 13/1, £13 @ 20/1, £32.50 @ 6/4 and £39.50 @ 7/4… then 1 point should equal 50p.
    If a punter can afford £34 @ 13/1, £52 @ 20/1, £130 @ 6/4 and £158 @ 7/4… then 1 point should equal £2.
    And of course, anything in between.

    Realise you do to a pound stake, the above is an alternative if you’re a value punter.

    The guy is only 21 years old but he’ll be drawing his pension by the time he works all that out and won’t be able to afford a bet :mrgreen:

    #384014
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    :lol:

    Simple when you know how H. :wink:

    Value Is Everything
    #384016
    Hippo Joe
    Member
    • Total Posts 80

    Prof: Why not just open an online account and make a deposit of 50 points?

    When I went online five years ago with a bank of 200 points, I was surprised how well I was doing. We all have our ups and downs, of course, but here I am five years later with 510 points in the same bank I started with. I have been up over 1,000 points and down to 100 points during that time.

    You can see instantly where your money is going, and if it’s been a bad day you can’t just forget it, for it shows in your balance the next day.

    I find it great for self-discipline.

    Like you, I was sure I was losing when I was betting in cash and not keeping records.

    I take it you mean you have been betting in cash and never having a clue if you lost £100 or £300 in the last month?

    #384019
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Good job we aren’t all the same H.

    No offence to Ginger but he’s cold and calculated and plays numbers backing 2 and 3 horses in nearly every race. His reasoning is sound but I couldn’t bet like he does.

    Cold and calculating, that’s me. :lol:

    To say you should not put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as you do a 1/1 money shot is foolish to my way of thinking as much as my way is foolish to Gingers way of thinking.

    My motto: Either you think a horse will win or you don’t.

    Ginger by backing other horses in the same race and increasing his liability can turn a 20/1 shot into a 2/1 shot and as long as he’s in profit he’s happy.

    If I think a 20/1 shot will win and my liability for each bet I have is 100 or 1000 pounds I’ll back it. If I am in doubt whether the horse is 1/2 or 100/1 I will not bet.

    If you "think a 20/1 shot will win", ie has a bigger chance of winning than losing, then no offence H, you’re off your rocker. No 20/1 shot has a better chance of winning than losing.

    I’d hate to think I had taken Ginger’s advise when backing Don’t Push It for the national it would have cost me more than Ginger could win in a lifetime using his method. :P

    It is all very well winning big on one Don’t Push It in the National. But you’re not maximising your profit on the shorter priced horses. You’re risking a lot waiting for the big win like that and in all probability does not pay in the long run.

    Listen to your ol’ Da. Ginger is nuts :wink:

    He’s lucky we all like Ginger Nuts on here or he’d have no friends at all :mrgreen:

    I have no friends H.

    :wink:

    Value Is Everything
    #384047
    gamble
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3859

    Position your armchair by the chimney
    shut one eye and half close the other
    and slouch well down in the chair.
    Now let’s get this straight
    you’re looking for a man in red
    who is trying to better the lives
    of the little people.
    I am rather hoping for a flu remedy :?

    #384054
    elcartero
    Participant
    • Total Posts 861

    I’ve never been quite sure how to define ‘Return on Investment’ (ROI) and this seems to be a good time to ask as there’s a lot of experts about.
    If I stake £100 and get a return of £120 (including stake) is my ROI 20 percent or 120 percent?
    Thanks in advance and a Very Happy Christmas to all.

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    #384056
    Alexander
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1181

    Not a silly question at all !

    There is an awful lot of stuff around staking and returns on investment etc. Personally, I reckon some folk make an obsession out of the mechanics of betting, the racing fun comes a distant second.

    Maybe you will be interested in my approach:
    I have a selected stable at the moment of 28 "gutsy/ resolute" type runners. They are backed to win me a set £25 each time one of these runs, that is, if it is deemed a fair bet at the odds on offer.
    If one of these does not come up trumps and I lose £25 in total over a series of attempts, that runner is binned from the list, and another is sought to replace it. If a runner does well it will of course be retained. The list fluctuates, up to 50 runners are manageable
    (I use declared runner list in a simple database to track runners engagements and same for profit and loss tracking)

    For me, this is the ideal; It requires always on the lookout for the "gutsy" type to add to my list even when I do not have a betting interest in a race. The bets are always set to win me the same amount. I am very conscious to obtain value – After all, no use backing one of mine at perhaps evens and losing my runner from the list with only a single run. Much better to have odds where I can retain the runner for at least a few outings.

    I cannot claim credit for this approach: Kenneth Stewart in his book "

    Racing For Pleasure and Profit

    " (Stanly Paul Press 1966) put me on the right track.

    Alex

    PS*to Elcartero. re your query:= The ROI would be 20%.

    #384060
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    20% Elcartero.

    ROI = (Return from investment – cost of investment)/cost of investment

    Expressed as percentage.

    #384061
    elcartero
    Participant
    • Total Posts 861

    Alexander and David…
    Many thanks for your prompt replies to my query re ROI….It’s puzzled me for years and I’ve never got around to asking for advice.
    Steve.

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    #384073
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    I got in to trouble on another forum for not believing a members claim of ROI.

    In his case he did include stake in the ROI. ie in this case 120% not 20%. So it seems to mean different things to different people.

    I prefer "profit on stakes" rather than "ROI".

    Value Is Everything
    #384148
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1984

    Position your armchair by the chimney
    shut one eye and half close the other
    and slouch well down in the chair.
    Now let’s get this straight
    you’re looking for a man in red
    who is trying to better the lives
    of the little people.
    I am rather hoping for a flu remedy :?

    Personally I’m looking for the man in the mirror. The black belt definitely suits.

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