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I think Joe Tizzard rode a poor race in the International, with Cue Card far too handy too early, with his best performances coming when scything through from the back. The loose and boggy ground may have also worked against him. That run was reminiscent of his debut in similar conditions at Fontwell where Cue Card definitely came off the bridle on the home turn.
With more suitable ground and slightly more passive tactics, I think Cue Card will dish out a mullering today. If Hidden Universe doesn’t blow his chance on the ferry over again, he could be in the places.
Bearing in mind my view on the true state of the going I’ve searched for something that will really bounce off the ground. The one I’ve ended up with is Gibb River. He will like the ground; jumps well; and he looks the sort of relentless galloper who will be staying on all the way up the hill. It’s impossible to know how good he is because he hasn’t been put under any sort of pressure in any of his three hurdles starts but a flat rating in the 80s gives me hope that he shouldn’t lack the speed for this.
Ginger,
Your point is well made and of course, small stables rarely have the favourite for a Grade 1 at the Festival. But that’s a bit chicken and egg isn’t it – is a stable a small one because nobody sends them expensive horses, etc?
Equally my 4% stat for Joe Tizzard is arguably irrelevant, as he has a much higher strike rate on this horse. But I try not to be too influenced by the fact that it’s Cheltenham and just apply the same methods that work elsewhere.
And at Taunton (or Exeter, or wherever) I would lay any mount of his over hurdles, because in the long term, that approach produces a good rate of profit.
Good luck working out a tissue for all 27 races!
AP
Ginger,
Good luck working out a tissue for all 27 races!
AP
Only have time to do about 4 races a day. Just hope my Timeform Briefing arrives today (for tomorrow)! Otherwise will have to work on the "big race entries" ratings (unless I get a "race pass").
Any comments on what you think I’ve under / over priced greatly appreciated AP.
Value Is Everything
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Who do you think will improve the most today given better ground than any of these have faced all season?
My money is on Cue Card, Hidden Universe and Zaidpour finding a lot more today in these conditions.
Other than the Rathlin, numbers 1 to 10 all go well on good ground. Hidden Universe hasn’t had it this season, may be he can improve most, but will he act at Cheltenham? Al Ferof could improve quite a bit on it.
Value Is EverythingI always felt that Cue Card was worth opposing in The Supreme. There was every likelihood of another potential superstar emerging this season to challenge him, and in the shape of the Nicky Henderson-trained duo, Spirit River and Sprinter Sacre, I think we have two.
One has to question just how much Cue Card will find off the bridle and there is every possibility that this trip may be on the sharp side, but on official ratings he is by far the best horse in the race and unlike the majority of the field – the exceptions being Al Ferof and Dunraven Storm – he has proven his ability around Prestbury Park.
In short, 3/1 was just too good an offer to turn down.
After the eclipse of Dunguib last year, the bookmakers appear rather confident of getting another Festival Banker beat, in what is always a very competitive contest.
I opposed Dunguib with two horses last year – Get Me Out Of Here (win) and Menorah (ew). I have taken the 3/1 about Cue Card, but fear
Al Ferof
just as much as the two Henderson horses.
Cue Card disappointing. What price Menorah?
Cited Al Ferof as the main danger. Nice start.
Thought that was a terrible performance by Cue Card…well worse than Dunguib last year.
I think the training methods was very poor.
Ruby once again imperious
Menorah predictably on the drift after Cue Card once again puts his head in the air once taken on.
Top ride by Ruby.
Magens still at 20s with VC and Bet365.
Had a little £3 bet on her and Dunraven Storm at 25s.Main bet on this race though is Al Ferof at 9s with 365.
Off to a flyer! That’s probably it for the week!
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All credit to Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls for getting the tactics right there. Last man standing wins the day again. A couple of the others in the finish were a tad keen early and got there too soon. Tizzard much too impatient on his mount for mine.
The irish bunch ran well…Magens Star ran a storming race i thought and Rathlin looked good for along way. Not in the first 4 in the end but i think they were very decent runs. Hidden Unvirse lost the race before he started was covered in sweat. May go back to the flat now
Thought i was off to a great start today, Spirit Son ran a great race, and then out of nowhere comes Al Ferof.
Was some ride, shows his other side to his game being very strong in the finish, after the race Al Ferof looks very very worn out and really tired, next seasons targets I wouldnt really know, I dont think he is a Champion Hurdle horse, maybe more a Arkle type, I think Spirit Son for his first real battle will improve a whole lot and is the horse to take out after performing so well and he doesnt look the finished article as a horse still looks weak to look at, Sprinter Sacre just didnt have the toe of the first two and will make a superb chaser, Cue Card I think found a lot of trouble in running and Tizzard had him all over the place, I’d forgive him for that
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