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I’m really struggling for ideas this year. Cue Card I’m sure will take all the beating but price is a bit skimpy!
I think Dare Me has a chance each way, but no idea if he will even run. Should find out from Hobbs at the Cheltenham Preview evening at Exeter Racecourse next week.
What does everyone else fancy?
Martin
Given that most/all English challengers should be held by Cue Card on all known form, I’m siding with
Zaidpour
. Flattered to deceive yet I know but worth risking him showing his true capabilties come Cheltenham.
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Nicky Henderson has two very special talents in Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre. The winner will come from that pair; preferably the former.
Cue Card boasts the best form (2nd to Menorah) but I can’t help but look at past Bumper winners, Cousin Vinny and Dunguib, coming up short in this race the year after, and I fear lightning could strike thrice.
I agree with Armchair, Spirit Son looks very special but obviously this race will be a different kettle of fish to what he’s been in to date. Looks quite a nimble and pacey horse so maybe the course may suit him, though has only raced on very soft ground so far.
Sam Winner would be interesting if he runs in this instead of the Triumph – perhaps Chepstow didn’t suit last time on soft ground and Cheltenham course form is rock solid, having thrashed the smart Grandouet and Plan A who have since won well.
I’ll be interested to see how Day of a Lifetime goes tomorrow – ran a bizarre race in the Bumper last year (steering right most of the way round) but made amends at Leopardstown last month, which was much more like it – have to forgive that Cheltenham run but he’s still a very promising type, and his defeat of Oscar’s Well who since boasts the scalp of Zaidpour is very strong form indeed.
I agree with the view that the winner seems to be with either of the Henderson Pair but i prefer Spinter Sacre i have been impressed with the horse each time this season and the style of his wins shows that he has loads left in the locker
Im against Cue Card for this i think his International hurdle rating is exsesive not just his but Menorahs and Silviniarco Conti
It was a strange race and i believe over rated by the handicapper for me he is around the same horse as Dunquib was coming intp this race and a place is the most he can hope forDare Me is out. Was announced last week. Cue Card very very hard to beat. His form is miles ahead of any novice.
Aikman is a very exiting prospect trained by James Ewart in the borders.I follow the stable runners and I think this horse has a huge e/way chance in the Supreme.H,es 50/1 with P.Power
25/1 with Hills and 329/1 on betfair.What does William Hill know.
Its not certain if he runs in this race,but wherever he does run
I think he will win.I agree with the view that the winner seems to be with either of the Henderson Pair but i prefer Spinter Sacre i have been impressed with the horse each time this season and the style of his wins shows that he has loads left in the locker
Im against Cue Card for this i think his International hurdle rating is exsesive not just his but Menorahs and Silviniarco Conti
It was a strange race and i believe over rated by the handicapper for me he is around the same horse as Dunquib was coming intp this race and a place is the most he can hope forPersonally, I think Cue Card goes into this race a vastly different proposition to Dunguib last year. For one thing it makes a huge difference if you can actually jump. Even if you only think he is the equal of Dunguib what precisely have the Henderson pair done to suggest that they are comparable to Menorah and Get Me Out Of Here? After Cue Card the Supreme market is full of horses who owe their position to little more than hype.
I’m totally on Cue Cards side in this one. I think anything around 9/4 is a great price and im sure he would be shorter if it wasn’t for the last 2 supreme novice hotpots being turned over.
He’s way above the rest on ratings and was only beaten by a leading Champion Hurdle fancy last time out. Loves Cheltenham too.For me the danger is if good ground brings about a massive improvement in Zaidpour but its a big if.
Dont mind looking to get odds on shots beaten (backed Get me out of here last year) but at 9/4 theres plenty of value!!
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Aikman is a very exiting prospect trained by James Ewart in the borders.I follow the stable runners and I think this horse has a huge e/way chance in the Supreme.H,es 50/1 with P.Power
25/1 with Hills and 329/1 on betfair.What does William Hill know.
Its not certain if he runs in this race,but wherever he does run
I think he will win.William Hill don’t know anything, Mike; if Aikman finishes within 20l of the winner in the Supreme he’ll have done well.
Just wondering, with the current prices on offer, Cue Card 9/4, Spirit Son 7s, Sprinter Sacre 8s, Zaidpour 10s and so on, what prices do you think these horses SHOULD be?
Don’t know whether this helps’msercs’
Supreme Novices Hurdle
RACE TRENDS:
•12 of the last 14 winners won last time out
•8 of the last 19 winners had one or two previous starts over hurdles
•10 of the last 11 winners ran in the previous 45 days
•32 of the last 36 winners were aged five or six
•Only one four-year-old winner since 1973
•The Irish have won 7 of the last 10 renewals
•Only 3 favourites won in the last 19 renewals
•3 of the last 15 horses to start at 3/1 or shorter have won
•6 of the last 13 winners started in the front two of the betting
•3 of the 4 previous years’ Champion Bumper winners have been beaten (last three years)Don’t know whether this helps’msercs’
Supreme Novices Hurdle
RACE TRENDS:
•12 of the last 14 winners won last time out
•8 of the last 19 winners had one or two previous starts over hurdles
•10 of the last 11 winners ran in the previous 45 days
•32 of the last 36 winners were aged five or six
•Only one four-year-old winner since 1973
•The Irish have won 7 of the last 10 renewals
•Only 3 favourites won in the last 19 renewals
•3 of the last 15 horses to start at 3/1 or shorter have won
•6 of the last 13 winners started in the front two of the betting
•3 of the 4 previous years’ Champion Bumper winners have been beaten (last three years)Nice trends. These seem to point in the Spirit Son/Sprtinter Sacre direction.
PP are offering a generous money back special if Cue Card wins. Their odds aren’t the best but Spirit Son at 11/2 isn’t bad with the money-back offer.
Here’s another trend:
* NJ Henderson 0 wins from 19 runners since 1994…
Cue Card for me. Am already on at 10/1-14/1 ante post, but will top up on the day if he’s 2/1 or bigger
Here’s the list for anyone intereested and there are plenty of short ones…
1994 Barna Boy 6th 10/1
1995 Who is Equiname 10th 33/1
1996 Kimanicky 2nd 11/2
Brave Patriarch PU 66/1
1997 No runners
1998 No runners
1999 Perfect venue 8th 50/1
All Gong 9th 25/1
2000 Dusk Duel 9th 8/1
2002 Got One Too 10th 16/1
Dungarvens Choice 15th 25/1
2003 Chauvinist – 3rd 20/1
2004 Fleet Street – 3rd 20/1
Perle de Puce – PU 8/1
2005 No Runners
2006 No Runners
2007 Amaretto Rose – 3rd 2/1f
2008 Binocular – 2nd 8/1co-fav
Khyber Kim – 10th 17/2
Sentry Duty – 15th 11/1
2009 Ainama – 8th 14/1
2010 Oscar Whisky – 4th 11/1
General Miller – UR 25/1
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