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Frankel TV Commercial:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIK5TyaPv4Y
Could have been better, in my opinion.
Its hardly going to encourage new blood to the sport. The over-excited commentary and blurry images seem the mainstay of sports programme directors so just following the herd.
I just love the way commetators on this site say ""if Frankel were in the race".Whose fault is it that he was not?Seems like as his career comes to an end people are beginning to realise that Sir Henry, whom I much admire, sold them short.To preserve his unbeaten record he ducked the challenge of going the distance for all great horses.I attribute this to Henry getting old.In his prime the stable stars took on everyone.No ducking and dodging in the eighties and early nineties.No excuses about not settling and such.But we all get old I suppose.
I just love the way commetators on this site say ""if Frankel were in the race".Whose fault is it that he was not?Seems like as his career comes to an end people are beginning to realise that Sir Henry, whom I much admire, sold them short.To preserve his unbeaten record he ducked the challenge of going the distance for all great horses.I attribute this to Henry getting old.In his prime the stable stars took on everyone.No ducking and dodging in the eighties and early nineties.No excuses about not settling and such.But we all get old I suppose.
Andy, If Frankel had run in the Marois non the the English or Irish milers would have bothered to make the trip, they’d all have run in the Sussex.
Frankel doesnt let himself down on fast ground? Mmm. Let’s see. Imo he loves fast ground.
The only chance he gets beat is if Nathaniel runs and sets it up for St Nic. Robin Hood cannot stretch Frankel for long enough to make stamina an issue but if Nathaniel took it up 4 out St Nic could just pick up the pieces. As it stands he wont run as Frankel has scared him off Andyod unless it rains constantly between now and Wednesday.
I predict Frankel to win by at least 5 lengths.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I do not think he fully stretched at Goodwood and his slightly wayward course when he quickened was fair warning for those blinkered enough to take 1/7 about a horse running over a new distance and new going.
What price do you reckon he should be then?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Firm ground is needed to break record times and Frankel has never run on Firm ground.
Not always, Danedream set a race record time in last year’s Arc on good going.
I am not convinced Frankel would let himself down on firm going. I do not think he fully stretched at Goodwood and his slightly wayward course when he quickened was fair warning for those blinkered enough to take 1/7 about a horse running over a new distance and new going.
"Good" is one man’s description. It was not anywhere near what I’d describe as "good".
Frankel’s action is the most fluent I’ve ever seen, beautiful to watch. An action like that should favour a firm surface. However, I do agree with you EF, 1/7 is a poor price to take. Any horse who shows top class sprinting fractions in a mile race is not certain to stay 1m2f. Frankel will probably ("probably" as in – has a better than 50% chance of winning) stay the distance well enough to win, but that does not mean he is value at 1/7. Does he really stand a better than 87.5% chance of winning?
Value Is EverythingI do not think he fully stretched at Goodwood and his slightly wayward course when he quickened was fair warning for those blinkered enough to take 1/7 about a horse running over a new distance and new going.
What price do you reckon he should be then?
It is not so much a question of what price I think the horse should be but that any horse at very long odds offers greater potential losses than profits and an expedient route to the poor house. In the normal course of a race any unforeseen misfortune could occur to suggest that 1/20 would not be a true reflection of chance of any horse in a race even over their optimum distance.
My observation is that if you think Frankel will win then enjoy watching him win but under no circumstances is he a viable betting proposition at the currently offered prices.I just love the way commetators on this site say ""if Frankel were in the race".Whose fault is it that he was not?Seems like as his career comes to an end people are beginning to realise that Sir Henry, whom I much admire, sold them short.To preserve his unbeaten record he ducked the challenge of going the distance for all great horses.I attribute this to Henry getting old.In his prime the stable stars took on everyone.No ducking and dodging in the eighties and early nineties.No excuses about not settling and such.But we all get old I suppose.
Ooh err… the room has gone cold all of a sudden…
Quick call the BMH team!
It’s another one of those phantom anti Frankel/Sir Henry posts.
What price do you reckon he should be then?
In my opinion Frankel is too short at 1/7.
I personally make Frankel a fair 2/9, 82% chance. Remembering if that 82% had a bookies mark up it would be 2/11.
Value Is EverythingWhat price do you reckon he should be then?
In my opinion Frankel is too short at 1/7.
I personally make Frankel a fair 2/9, 82% chance. Remembering if that 82% had a bookies mark up it would be 2/11.
Its one thing to think what price he should be, but that does not mean that you consider it worthwhile to make an investment at that price.
Using Frankel as a starting point, it is inevitable that something in the race is over-priced and therefore better value.
What price do you reckon he should be then?
In my opinion Frankel is too short at 1/7.
I personally make Frankel a fair 2/9, 82% chance. Remembering if that 82% had a bookies mark up it would be 2/11.
How have you arrived at such an arbitary figure?
What price do you reckon he should be then?
In my opinion Frankel is too short at 1/7.
I personally make Frankel a fair 2/9, 82% chance. Remembering if that 82% had a bookies mark up it would be 2/11.
Its one thing to think what price he should be, but that does not mean that you consider it worthwhile to make an investment at that price.
Using Frankel as a starting point, it is inevitable that something in the race is over-priced and therefore better value.
Not always "inevitable" Eclipse. I’ve one my 100% book and was hoping to place an each way bet on something else. Only to find no "value" at bookmakers prices. There are two at what I consider "value" @ betfair, but that’s just win odds. I’ll tell you what they are once the bets are taken.
As far as Frankel is concerned, I’m obviously not going to back him @ 1/7. However, it’s worth considering the Winning Distance Market, either as a main bet or a saver.
Value Is EverythingWhat price do you reckon he should be then?
In my opinion Frankel is too short at 1/7.
I personally make Frankel a fair 2/9, 82% chance. Remembering if that 82% had a bookies mark up it would be 2/11.
How have you arrived at such an arbitary figure?
Same way as I always do J17. Study the form, including ratings, going, distance, temperament, likely pace (and who it’s going to suit), from that work out what percentage chance I believe each horse has got of winning (so all add up to 100%), convert percentage to odds.
Value Is EverythingFor my money betting against Frankel at anything between 5 and 10f is betting Frankel will pull up lame / injured. That is less than a 18% chance, so I disagree with the Ginger numbers man.
And I bet for all your maths saying you believe Frankel is under-priced, you are not backing against, or laying, Frankel. If I’m wrong fair enough.
For my money betting against Frankel at anything between 5 and 10f is betting Frankel will pull up lame / injured. That is less than a 18% chance, so I disagree with the Ginger numbers man.
And I bet for all your maths saying you believe Frankel is under-priced, you are not backing against, or laying, Frankel. If I’m wrong fair enough.
I have already backed two horses against Frankel on betfair PC. But as both were taken from the blue side of the board (ie I waited for the prices to be taken) and there’s currently poor liquidity. I can hardly say "back …. @ …. when there is just 2 or £3 available at that price. Once liquidity is good I’ll let you know who they are.
No, I am not backing Frankel to "pull up lame" PC. I love Frankel, will be cheering him on and hoping he’s victorious. But he’s going up in trip and with two pacemakers for a stable companion who’s coming down in distance (ie St Nich needs a test at the distance). Therefore it’s sure to be a stamina test at 10 furlongs 88 yards. Frankel shows top class sprinting fractions when racing at a mile. If he’d gone for the Nunthorpe I’d rate him long odds-on too! Any horse with that much speed is not entirely certain of getting 10 furlongs.
People compare breeding, full brother Noble Mission, Galileo etc. But it is temperament that can sometimes effect stamina limitations. Frankel has been free at a mile before now (admittedly this tendency is getting less and less). But settling well enough to be impressive at a mile is one thing. Settling well enough to be impressive over another 2 and a bit furlongs – is quite another.
82% is still a massive chance of winning. For the record, I think Frankel will probably stay the trip well enough to win. However, things are not just black or white. One has to allow for the possibility of not staying and coming to the end of his tether to such an extent as to lose the race (and other reasons). So in my opinion he has an 18% chance of not winning.Value Is EverythingTaken from The Weekender this week – Topspeed’s Dave Edwards writes:
"Tepid – The pundits who were demeaning the achievements of Frankel recently were made to look even more stupid on Sunday after Excelebration lifted the Prix Jaques le Marois"
Phew – wasn’t JUST my paranoia then!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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