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Phoenix Stakes 2006

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  • #2867
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    At Royal Ascot Hellvelyn beat Holy Roman Emperor by 8l (level weights). That was over 6f on Good To Firm ground.

    Tomorrow they meet again over 6f on Good To Firm ground. HRE is 4/5 while Hellvelyn is 3/1. Now am I getting confused or is 3/1 an early christmas present?

    I would have thought Brazilian Bride would be more of a danger to Hellvelyn rather than HRE (who should hold Drayton).

    Have I gone mad?:o

    #75265
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    I think you are taking the collateral formlines far too literally. I would be foolish not to acknowledge that Holy Roman Emperor put up a much improved effort to beat Drayton and Excellent Art in the National Stakes at the Curragh next time.

    That form is probably somewhere on a par with the Coventry form which hasn’t worked out as well as Hellvelyn’s fans would have hoped. Whether he should be trading at odds on with Helvellyn at 3’s is probably wrong, but he has course and distance experience, hasn’t had to travel over so deserves to be favourite.

    #75266
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    How can you possibly compare form other than through collateral lines, DJ?

    #75267
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    It is a case of needing to acknowledge that horses aren’t machines, they are flesh and blood –  :biggrin:  and don’t necessarily run to the same figure every time. Just pointing out that Holy Roman Emperor’s last effort is probably a more accurate reflection of his ability than his Coventry run.

    #75268
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Not quite true EC, I have actually said 3’s is probably the wrong price. I will back him at that price. The way the race is run may also suit him quite well, he looks a very speedy horse that will be able to track Drayton and possibly Rabatash if that also makes it whereas HRE had to be nudged along from a fair eway out last time. I think there is a possibility that Helvellyn could nick it between 2f and 1f out and hold on against the fast-finsihing HRE. We shall see, certainly a race I’m looking forward to.

    On a seperate note does anyone know if this is the first year in recent times that the BHB have published marks for 2-y-os rated higher than 100?

    #75269
    empty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Them fellas at Sportsman have Holy Roman Emperor 7lbs ahead of Hellvelyn on their ratings

    <br>Interesting imhaho<br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 1:18 am on Aug. 13, 2006)

    #75270
    Jim JTS
    Member
    • Total Posts 841

    I’ll not be having a bet in the race but I hope Hellvelyn wins this.

    #75271
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Good point about Zafonical Storm EC I noticed that. I have HRE rated 101 to their 107 as ZS really holds the form down.

    #75272
    empty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Interestingly, like the Sportsman i have  HRE ahead of Hellvelyn, but by 10lbs

    <br>

    #75273
    empty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Yes Stav A O’Brien has just rung and you get on about people dissing you and EC

    What a w**ker you are

    <br>(Edited by empty wallet at 12:12 pm on Aug. 13, 2006)<br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 12:14 pm on Aug. 13, 2006)

    #75274
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    The topspeed adjusted ratings are:

    Hellvelyn       114<br>Drayton        113<br>Rabatash      101<br>King of Sw      99<br>HRE                 99<br>Braz B             97

    So, purely on speed ratings, you would go for the best priced between Hellvelyn and Drayton.

    my own ratings for the race are:

    HRE           131<br>Hellvelyn    129<br>Drayton     127<br>Braz  B       127

    My tissue based on these ratings would be:

    HRE 6/4, Hell 9/4, Dray 4/1, Braz B 4/1.

    Adjusting for the market:

    HRE 5/4,  Hell 5/2, Dray 8/1, Braz B 8/1.

    On this basis, I would go for splitting stakes between Drayton and Brazilian Bride.

    #75275
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I couldn’t find any 3/1 this morning so I’ve taken some of the 11/4 offered by William Hills with a saver on Brazilian Bride. I’m slightly worried Ladbrokes are shortest about Drayton and joint biggest about Hellvelyn though.:o

    #75276
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I saw that too EC, they want HRE on the book.

    #75277
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    a winker I think Stav:o

    #75278
    SirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1208

    Ive seen this Brazillian bride and she looks a great prospect but I wouldnt be rushing to lay the OBrien horse in this one…how many times have they won it recently??

    SHL

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