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This is from the RP Website
"The two market principals may well have to contend with Cheltenham specialist Exotic Dancer, as on Thursday Sir Robert Ogden’s racing manager Barry Simpson stated that the King George runner-up, a winner on his three most recent visits to Prestbury Park, would run in the Gold Cup trail rather than his other option, the Ladbrokes Trophy off top weight, if it was decided to race him this weekend.
Simpson said: “If Exotic Dancer goes to Cheltenham he’ll run in the Letheby And Christopher. I spoke to Jonjo O’Neill after he’d taken a look at the course today, and he told me the ground was quite sticky. SirRobert is on the other side of the world, and I must speak to him before confirming whether or not we run.â€ÂÂ
Well I hope he does and I hope Our Vic has an off day!! :biggrin:
Ogden is never usualy scared of running his horses though and I think he’ll fancy his chances so i’d think there’s every chance he’ll run
Quote: from apracing on 9:13 pm on Jan. 25, 2007[br]<br>And although I wouldn’t swear to it, he’s probably the only Gold Cup winner to have broken his duck over fences in a Southwell maiden chase.
Completely off topic but perusing the form book I couldn’t help but notice that while this March Detroit City & Fair Along go to Cheltenham as warm favourites for the C.H and Arkle yet 2 years ago to the month they were clashing in a 0-70 AW handicap at Southwell.
I found it interesting anyway.
A fascinating race on which I’ll be maintaining a watching brief.<br>The class act and best on ratings is OV. Looked good and handled the ground at Wetherby. However is enigmatic and has let down supporters more than once.Maybe a long break is the key to him.<br>HG must be decent to win a Welsh National under 11-3.However this is a serious step up- G2 and Gold Cup trial.<br>ED . Gets 4lb from OV but doubts over stamina and ground<br>CA- up in class and up against experience chasers<br>
Simon Holt on the Sporting Life site says he is "not surprised" that Halcon Genelardais is favourite? I must be missing something as half of the nation seem to agree….
Ok
Everyone moans about this or that favourite (detroits city being a recent example), but do i see a stampede to lay on the exchanges??????
Clive, i’m definitely not moaning!! Just confused!!
Can’t believe ED’s price is all..
Clive
if both Our Vic and Exotic Dancer run, EW will be laying on Saturday at 4.5 and below
So Exotic Dancer runs then. Sounds good. This is my opinion FWIW:
I think it all comes down to what your opinion of Our Vic is. Over hurdles and fences it record when fresh ( a break of 2 months or longer) is: 12FP111. He was pulled up when he blundered a fence, although it is questionable what he would of done even if he hadn’t blundered the fence. But clearly it goes well fresh. Unfortunately its overall record leaves something to be desired. It has only completed 8 of its 12 chase starts and was miles behind on one of the other starts. The question one therefore has to try to address is what is the reason for these "mishaps"? Running it when fresh clearly seems to help but I don’t think that is the solution. Our Vic’s record at Cheltenham is 3FP1P91 which is an obvious source of worry. I can’t make any correlation betwenn the distance and ground and Our Vic’s form, though it has won its only start on heavy. The reason I want to scrutinise Our Vic is because it brings the best form into the race but has two ways of running. Based on what we know it is almost like a flip of the coin as to whether it will put its head down or not.
Okay so what of the opposition? Halcon Genelardais made it to my notebook last season for its grittiness as it had looked beat in several of its races before "staying on" to get up close home and made it on to my 10 to follow list this season. It hasn’t disappointed either, with two wins at big prices. Unfortunately it isn’t such a big price today. His trainer says "it is a ridiculous price" but then again he said that on the day of the Welsh National too so I wouldn’t pay any attention to that. He is an improving horse that will not be stopping at the end of the race, but lets remember the difference in class of horses he is up against today. Halcon Genelardais beat plodders and mud larks in the Welsh National, but today he comes against Group 1 performers. Does the 2/1 represent value? No way.
Exotic Dancer showed signs last season he could mature into a top chaser, but he certainly needed the run first timoe out this season, though he was recovering from an injury. His form since that though is excellent, winning at 16/1, 8/1, and finishing 2nd in the King george to Kauto Star at 9/1. These three runs give him excellent prospects today but most improtantly to me is the fact he is a forecast 6/1. Lets digress for a minute. Lets suppose Kauto Star wasn’t in the King George. Exotic Dancer came through from the back to beat Racing Demon and win the King George. What price would ED be then? Did we really expect Exotic Dancer to beat Kauto Star? My own view is that the market is once again overlooking Exotic Dancer because it is rated within 1lb of the "unreliable" Our Vic yet is 4pts bigger.
Of the others Take The Stand is capable of winning if it could keep its concentration for 3 miles but unfortunately that hasn’t happened recently, Idle Talk is unlikely to be good enough and Neptune Collognes reverts back to Chasing after a disappointing run over hurdles. There is also a theory that switching between chasing and hurdling regulary doesn’t do the horse many favours and when the horses chase figures are 1111U121 I wouldn’t be in a rush to put it back over hurdles and i find it interesting connections chose to do exactrly that. The grey is a very exciting prospect and looks sure to develop into a Group 1 performer, but whether it is upto the job today is a differnet question. As the horse is only 13/2 I am being asked am I willing to lose 1/2 a point for a King George second and career best run last time out as opposed to horse that ran poorly last time out of hurdles and the answer is defintely yes. The other thing that puts me off Neptune Collognes is what happened last time it bumped into Our Vic. It got 1 stone off him and still took a beating and if Our Vic runs his race it in theory cannot beat him. So we are left with Cailan Alainn. Form of 1111 over fences certainly grabs my attention, though her recent performances have embarrassingly been missed by me. The fact she receives weight is obviously of interest too, but looking at the negatives and this is an unknown trip, and she has to really step up on previous efforts. If she wins this then she is likely to be favourite for the RSA Chase, but my opinion is that she is not good enough to win this, but will certainly not embarrass herself.
So in conclusion then, my punting is all about the prices and Exotic Dancer is the one to appeal. WIth 9 runners and only 4/5 with a real chance and e/w bet seems sensible as he is very likely to run his race.
Recommendation: 1pt ew Exotic Dancer @ Best Morning Price (6/1)
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Fsl
"I can’t make any correlation betwenn the distance and ground and Our Vic’s form, though it has won its only start on heavy."
The time-based ground for Our Vic’s lto run at Wetherby (3m 1f) was heavy. The horse has never been beaten on soft or worse!<br>Conversely, Exotic Dancer’s only attempt over a distance was 3m around the sharp Kempton track, and even after that he was seen as a Ryanair Chase prospect.<br>You have been warned.:biggrin:
i’m the no1 member of the our vic fan club and i’ve made my thoughts clear on numerous threads, including these 2 quotes for anyone who is remotely interestedon the charlie hall thread.<br>
The 2 PU’s after his fall can be explained through either pyschological or physical effects. I’m not the horse whisperer but i’ll give him the benefit of the doubt there and as i remember it the pipe team didn’t let on to us how badly Our Vic was post fall until pre paddy power the following season. <br>And then last year his two failures came at the tripleprint meeting and the festival, which stable form wise were the 2 low points of a pretty bad year for the pipe yard. Not a single winner at either meeting, with 4 short favourites at the Tripleprint meeting all beaten by a distance means for me excuses on his performance can be made. <br>i’m not saying he would have won the two races had the pipe yard been bang in form but i do think he is far more than an all or nothing character who if things don’t go his way will throw in the towel. <br>
<br>and<br>
i may have to eat my words, but even though his owner and Jockey both questioned his temperament i always thought Pipey had other thoughts and he has always said he was the best horse in the yard. <br>Sentimentality sneaks in also and has since watching him win a handicap hurdle at wincanton nearly 4 years ago, though in the rest of my betting i hold not a jot for sentiment.
After watching the charlie hall a couple of times, even with rose coloured spectacles removed i’m extremely impressed. Not once did he touch a twig, he must have lost lengths racing wide as he did and murphy never once raised the whip. <br>
now i don’t let preconcieved ideas sway my betting, so i back or lay the protaganists of a race based on my tissue and any value i may get. here goes, colours to the mast and all.
15/8 OUR VIC<br>100/30 HALCO GENERALDAIS<br>11/2 EXOTIC DANCER<br>7/1 CAILIN ALAAIN<br>7/1 NEPTUNE COLLONGES
The rest huge prices.
I’m also an Our Vic fan but I just can’t see him getting up the hill tomorrow.
I remember when the Costellos were interviewed on C4 in the winners enclosure after Best Mate’s 2nd Gold Cup and they were asked if they had any special horses coming through. They said Our Vic and the dream is still alive but it’ll just be a watching brief for me tomorrow.
I know that Kauto Star is pretty special but still, I was quite surprised when they didn’t run Our Vic in the KG to be honest as they could have then given him a 3 month break before the GC.
(Edited by PAULCS at 12:01 am on Jan. 27, 2007)
FSL – Cailin Alainn has won over 3m on Hvy ground LTO so the trip is not an unknown. She is a great EW price IMO provided at least 8 stand their ground.
I will probably have an each-way double on Cailinn Alainn and Inglis Drever today as I can’t see anything stopping ID from being placed and CA only has to beat 2 of ED and HG to be placed, both of whom have doubts, regarding stamina and fitness (hard race LTO) respectively.
I couldn’t have Neptune Collonges because he has 7 lengths to make up on Our Vic over a similar trip ands ground to the Charlie Hall but has 8lb extra to carry.
Although he obviously likes the track, Idle Talk has a lot to prove on this ground IMO and is sure to find at least one of the main contenders too good.
I tend not to treat a horse who has won on Sft as one who will necessarily appreciate Hvy. He was well beaten in his only outing on Hvy going. His top 5 RPR’s occurred in races where the going was Gd/Sft at worst. And as regards his Hdl debut, any horse can win in unfavourable conditions if it outclasses the rest of the field. Rightly or wrongly I tend to ignore those type of races when anaylsing lifetime form. Sure didn’t Red Rum win over 5f but you’ld hardly call hom a sprinter.
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