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i would like to have seen state of play line up in this but i suppose he is going straight to the gold cup. i dont think our vic will win, although he is fresh, he never seems to follow up after a good performance. <br>i think exotic dancer is likely to win imo. he seems to love the course and will have no problem with the trip.
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Sorry to disagree, Dave, but Our Vic looks a laydown to me.<br> Pity I missed the 9/4.
thats the point of these pages, would be pointless if we all agreed. i just think he cant be trusted to run his race. looking at the charlie hall form doesnt encourage me either. neptune collonge has won since, but also been well beaten so i think he may have been flattered and given more credit than he deserved, although he was impressive. he has also been found wanting in the stamina department before, so 3 miles 1 in heavy may be difficult. He will probably go and win now!!
I was very taken with Halcon’s welsh national win. Of course, technically he needs to improve, but he travelled so well and jumped so nicely that thats not hard to envisage
but its 2/1 on betfair :(
yes he would be my alternative to exotic dancer. he has bags of stamina and with neptune collonge in the race there will be plenty of pace, which will also suit exotic dancer
Sorry to be funny but I assume this is the Letheby And Christopher Chase?
I am a big fan of Halcon Genelardais but it has to improve a lot. It all depends on the prices but Exotic Dancer certainly interests me.
I said last year I would never back Our Vic and i have to stick to that.
Its an ambitious engagement for Cailan Alainn. I wonder if its a pointer for its chances at Cheltenham in the R&SA Chase?
Cailan Alainn interested me too, but is he likely to run? if he does he will have to be respected. i think its fine to back our vic, just not his 2nd run of the season or at the festival!! exotic dancer is currently 7.2 on betfair, and for the runner up in the king george that seems a big price. imo. our vic and halcon are pretty much j/f at 2.1.
dave22,
He is a she! Cailan Alainn is Gaelic for Beautiful girl! Would be very interesting if she did line up, I was very impressed with her performance in Leop, she never looked like loosing and Russell looked like he had a handful underneath him despite the conditions, looks overpriced for the RSA chase IMO.
JohnJ.<br>
thankyou for pointing that out, my mistake!!! <br>i agree, it would be very interesting to see what she could do in that grade. if she won on saturgay he price would be much much much smaller for the RSA chase
I’d be wary of backing Halcon Genelardais at a short price given the poor record of Welsh National winners on their first start after Chepstow…
Welsh National Winners
Year / Winner / next outing<br>2006 / Halcon Genelardais / ???<br>2005 / L’Aventure / 5th<br>2004 / Silver Birch / 4th<br>2003 / Bindaree / 6th<br>2002 / Mini Sensation / won <br>2001 / Supreme Glory / 5th<br>2000 / Jocks Cross / PU<br>1999 / Edmond / 2nd<br>1998 / Kendal Cavalier / 5th<br>1997 / Earth Summit / 6th<br>
fair point mounty, but stats are there to be defied!!<br>personaly i dont go by stats very much because things do change over time so it doesnt really put me off, also what is in the race to oppose him? (appart from exotic dancer) our vic, who has stats of his own that say he wont win imo!
Hasn’t Halcon Genelardais already defied similar trends in winning the race carrying in excess of 11 st.
Cailin Alainn is indeed running in the race as a prep for the Festival. Her trainer says there isn’t much point in bringing her back to the Festival if she doesn’t take to the track. As I fancy her for the SunAlliance I’m hoping she’ll run well, but realistically at this stage she’ll struggle to win it.
It would have to be Our Vic for me at this stage – won the last four times he’s been rested for around 5 weeks or longer. Three-month break is a bonus. Neptune Collonges will love the likely heavy going and would look the biggest threat.
wouldnt want my life savings on this race and especially not on Pipes horse given his propensity for an off day. I Exotic dancer and Halcon Generaldais have obvious chances but I think i might have a small ew about Idle talk if i can get fancy odds.
SHL
Our Vic should really take this, but no easy task with Exotic Dancer and Halcon Generaldais in there
<br>Mounty,
But surely in 1996, Master Oats won both races before going on to score in the last heavy ground Gold Cup.
I’d suggest that Halcon Genelardais is the first winner of the Welsh since him to have the class to win a weight for age chase. I’d guess all the others were beaten in handicaps after Chepstow, carrying extra weight for their win.
AP
Good post AP.
If you look at the previous list of Welsh National winners in that trend analysis, (good as they were) they were plodders (apologies to any connections).
HG reminds me much more of a Master Oats than a L’Aventure (obviously disregarding the gender difference) .
Problem I have with this race is that although I fortuned from opposing Our Vic when TTAT prevailed I wouldn’t want to oppose him too often. A frustrating horse who on his day could have won a Gold Cup never seems to run the same race twice in succession.
Watching race for me but if had to would side with HG.
Lee
(Edited by wilsonl at 8:38 pm on Jan. 25, 2007)
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