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Equiano is aproaching ‘off a cliff’ territory for me, but i’ll go with him for a repeat win / place at a price.
Scenic Blast and Amour Propre drawn either side of the track (6 and 15).
He’s no Miss Andretti, Takeover Target or Choisir – the current crop of sprinters are very middle-of-the-range in Oz. Apache Cat and Takeover Target are riding off to the sunset, there’s a bunch of aspiring 3YOs (Northern Meteor, Aichi, Wilander, Fist Of Fury, Duporth, Nicconi) but no benchmark of top-class sprinter.
Can a seasoned, experienced local knock off the Aussie hotpot? Absolutely. It’s more than an a realistic expectation.
The videos I have seen suggest that Scenic Blast is a hold up horse who is brought through the field to challenge. Is that how you expect him to be ridden or misleading?
That’s the way he should be ridden.
He is not a speed horse, if that’s possible! However, he is a mighty good closer. Usain Bolt comes to mind. (But not a comparable example)
my points rating
128 fleeting spirit
125 tax free
121 amour propre
119 scenic blast
117 borderlescott
115 canninball
115 equino
112 hoh hoh hoh
107 spin cycle
106 dandy man
105 wi dud
99 anglezarke
92 rievaulx world
92 captain gerrard
88 mythical flightwill back fleeting spirit
with a saver on tax freePlenty of pace high in this particular race – it’s generally considered a disadvantage to be drawn in the middle of the track but it’s where most of the pace is, expect Rievaulx World to take them along for at least the first three furlongs and maybe set it up for a closer (Fleeting Spirit, Scenic Blast or hopefully my AP bet Spin Cycle)
From the speed map I’ve put together – IF the field splits in two, I’m predicting the far side to be run along at a stronger tempo than the grandstand side.
Given her highest rating was when fresh last year, and hopefully aided by Mythical Flight and Anglezarke setting the gallop closest to her, I think Fleeting Spirit is a top pick @ 9/2.
But the inside draw doesn’t leave much room for error.
Amour Propre might clean up the 5 furlong title races ahead if he remains on song! The close proximity of Hoh Hoh Hoh to him in the Palace House is interesting, but he is arguably in career best form.
In fact, Triple H might be worth a little gamble @ 25/1 because of that.
Find it difficult to agree with a pace bias. Rievaulx World (12) is very quick, but Mythical Flight (3) is a fast front runner, Captain Gerrard (7) has led every race he has been in for nearly two years and Equiano (9) made all last year and now has blinkers.
King’s Stand:
Scenic Blast is an interesting Aussie runner. Comes out the best horse at the weights in 6 of his last seven races (including two Grade 1 handicaps). Probably equally effective at 5 or 6f, though may have to be pushed along early at the minimum trip. Usually held up and that may help him as there is so much pace here. Possibly has the worst of the draw but there are only 15 runners and can switch behind runners. Excellent chance if he has enough early speed. Had Fist Of Fury well beaten in 6th last time so already have a soft spot for him.
Cannonball is the US challenger but does not look good enough. Second in Grade 3’s recently. Three starts back was beaten by the ex-Bryan Smart trained Helvellyn. Whether that is true form is open to doubt.
Mythical Flight from South Africa was 6th to the Hong Kong wonder horse Sacred Kingdom last time at Kranji, beaten 7 lengths. Does not quite look good enough. One dubious form line is when beaten in 07 by the now Eustace trained War Artist (placed in Golden Jubilee and July Cup). Mythical Kingdom is a front runner in a race with bags of pace but may be able to bag the rail (possible advantage).
Amour Propre is the best British hope. Unbeaten on a sound surface. On the up; won the Palace House beating Hoh Hoh Hoh and the below form Borderlescott comfortably. Henry Candy is adept at producing top class sprinters and is in excellent form. Amour Propre races prominently and has plenty of early speed. Excellent chance if not going too fast too soon.
Borderlescott does not seem to be in the same form this term. Now a seven year old and possibly on the downgrade. Unless he’s taking time to hit top form. The July Cup he won looks a bit substandard too, admirable horse though he is. Possibly suited by a stiff 5f or easy 6f. This might be a bit quick for him.
Fleeting Spirit was mightily impressive on reappearance last year, beating Borderlescott quite easily. So the fact she’s fresh looks a big positive. Third in this afterwards but did not get back to her Temple Stakes form. Drawn 1, with possibly the best of the draw (with luck in running). Second to Natagora in the Chieveley Park and beat Kingsgate Native in a terrific Molecomb as a two year old. The Noseda stable is now in good form. If back to her best has a good chance.
Equiano won this for Spain last year and then went to Barry Hills. Has had a stress fracture and may not be able to show that form again. A stable spy tells me he does not believe Equiano is a Group 1 animal this year. Promising reappearance when stable in terrific form (not so good now) but ran poorly twice since. Races prominently.
Tax Free was the one to beat Equiano at Newmarket and seems consistent but exposed as just below top class. Another prominent runner.
Hoh Hoh Hoh is also exposed and unlikely to be able to show the necessary improvement. Can lose the race with slow starts.
Dandy Man I believe has brittle feet and does not look capable of the same form now. Disappointed this year, but does have a good placed record at Royal Ascot. Another prominent runner.
Captain Gerrard is another who’s lost his form and is best with give underfoot. Runs his best races when able to dominate, unlikely to do so here.
Rievaulux World a front runner who may well be good enough to lead early, Mike Cattermole reckons he is the fastest horse in the country. Unfortunately he rarely stays there, but is still a little unexposed.
Wi Dud is probably best with give nowadays. Possibly flattered in very soft going in the Temple stakes. Well beaten since at Epsom. Poor win / run ratio.
Anglezarke beat Rievaulux World but possibly does not have the scope for further progress of that one. win.
Spin Cycle won a conditions race at Mussleborough so does not look up to this. But beat the good class older handicapper Cheveton half a length at level weights. Cheveton next ran a close 3rd in a class 2 handicap at York despite a poor draw. Spin Cycle was placed in the Norfolk here last year and goes well on a sound surface. Although has something to find with the top four is more unexposed than most of the others around his current level. Stable’s form is a negative.
My 100% book:
Scenic Blast 100/30, Amour Propre 7/2, Fleeting Spirit 4/1, Borderlescott 10/1, Tax Free 18/1, Spin Cycle 25/1, Equiano 28/1, Hoh Hoh Hoh 33/1, Mythical Flight 40/1, Rievaulux World 40/1, Dandy Man 50/1, Anglezarke 66/1, Cannonball 66/1, Wi Dud 132/1, Captain Gerrard 400/1.Have backed Fleeting Spirit at 5/1 yesterday and now Spin Cycle at 40/1. May have more bets later.
Value Is EverythingThere must be several Royal Ascot races which deserve the title
favourite’s graveyard
but the King’s Stand takes some beating. Since Lochsong won in 1994 the only winning favourite has been Miss Andretti. Over this period there have been winners at 33/1, 25/1, 22/1 (last year), 20/1 x 2, 16/1 x 2 etc.
Have decided to side with Mythical Flight. His record at 5f is 11111112. It’s only his record over 6f (doesn’t stay) that’s making him the price he is. Look at his race comment for this race
It’s surely more his recent form that’s making him a big price- all his good stuff is a long way back….big leap of faith.
Who, Equiano or me?
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