The Insanity of Ward 7……

[billion]

Yes I am "Very Happy" you are still with us.

Smile, as I expect from an old "Windbag"

Sad, Nothing new (so far)

Surprised I could not find a "smiley" for yawning.

Shocked at the thought all profit and losses should be shown.

Confused, with so much waffle I am easily confused.

Cool, well I shall give you the benefit of doubt.

I am sure there will be something to laugh about.

Mad, you are so bloomin long winded.

Back to you.

I am sure we will both be embarassed before too long.

Cry, if you don’t hurry up after all you have had a month off.

NO, never.

Don’t think I will ever understand why you take so long.

I am sure there will be many questions.

I hope you come up with lots.

Neutral, the jury is out but not for long.

It could mean "get along" I guess

Mr Green, well I will be soon

Save the best till last

Billy's Outback Shack

[MrE]

Bully boy….. patience is a virtue and you appear to be lacking in that particular virtue….. but, since you seem to be hell bent on self destruction, let me be the first to give you that kick into the abyss…… I’ll start as soon as I’ve had my breakfast, finished my caring duties for a 95 year old MIL. and studied the racing for today….. sorry Bully, this is a bit more waffle and you will still have to wait, but is it worth it??…. that’s what you’ve gotta ask yourself punk, do you feel lucky??….. sorry Bill, you’ve just got one of those faces that need winding up….. a bit like Doc Martin….

MrE

[MrE]

I’m not a happy bunny today guys, bloody insurance companies….. my car is in the garage because my cam followers are knackered and the car sounds like a bag of nails, but, as luck would have it, I was still 6 months inside an AA 5 Star Warranty period….. I found out this morning that they won’t cover the repairs because it’s down to "wear and tear"…… result is that I have to pay the £561 bill in full, that hurts a bit……

MrE

[MrE]

OK girls, this system used to be called The Golden Goose but it has been modified several times to keep up to date…. the idea was to get a shortlist of horses together and then make selections from that "knot" of horses, I took it a step further (rightly or wrongly) and decided to curtail the time spent on further analysis, so I started betting the selections by dutching…… but this is the basic system…..

Handicap races only (inc Nurseries) with 10 runners or less…..
Selected races should be Class 3 or above but if no selection from these, drop down to Class 4…..
All selected races to be 7 furlongs or more…..
From the applicable races, note down the FIRST 4 in the betting forecast taken from the Racing Post…..
Nip over to Betfair and also note down the prices of your 4 selections that are quoted at the time…..
Now discard any races where your shortest price is LESS than 3.50….
Any races that are left will have 4 selections (the first 4 in the betting according to the RP) with a minimum price of 3.50….. we only intend to "dutch" 3 of these, so a further selection must be discarded…. firstly we kick out any selection where the price is in double figures, we then "dutch" the remaining 3 selections….
If ALL 4 selections are under 10.00 in Betfair, we still have to discard one, so we boot out the shorter priced selection…… sounds complicated but it’s quite simple and very quick….. for examples, look below….. all prices were taken at about 1.00pm and probably bear no resemblance to BSP…..

Wed 14th…. 3.45 Bev.. Dubawi Dancer…. 3.60….
Light Blow…. 6.60….
Gottany O’s…. 6.20….
The Bells of Peover…. 7.00….

all selections were under 10.00 so the shorter priced Dubawi Dancer was NOT a bet….. The Bells of Peover won giving a successful "dutch"…. total bet was £8.37 for a return of £18.37 or a profit of +£10……
A second bet on the same day was….

5.00 Yarm… Top Diktat…. 5.00….
Fantasy Gladiator…. 8.80….
Hawaana…. 10.50….
Mujrayaat…. 6.00….

Hawaana was into double figures and was therefore discarded…. result was that Mujrayaat won and another winning dutch, this time it was another profit of +£10 for an outlay of £9.24…..
There was a third race on that day too but that was a losing race and gave us a loss of £11.98….. so for the complete day there was a profit of +£8.00 from a total risk of just under £30…. that’s an ROI of around 26%…..
You could have stopped at the first or second win and be well in front, but that’s all about staking and has no bearing on these rules….. but to put it into perspective, £10 level stakes on Wednesday would have cost you £90, the returns on the day would have been £130, that’s 4pts profit at levels or a 50% ROI…..

Paper Trade first guys….. then try your own ideas to improve it and make it even better….. how can you make it better??…. perhaps picking 2 instead of 3, can we safely kick out another selection without it hurting too much…. it’s up to you lot now……

MrE

[billion]

There will be a couple of "Gentlemen", dare I say more mature years

(as per you and me)

who do love their Dutching and I am sure if and when they come out of their bunkers could well have something to say about this one

Windy

.

I am sure they will love it, that is if they are not already playing it – How long do you think it has been around? I mean if it is prior WW2 (was going to say WW1 but perhaps that is just too cruel) there is a chance they are not aware of it but we shall see.

Billy's Outback Shack

[MrE]

Hi Bill…. I was doing this in the 60’s with my local bookies…. that was Will Hill and the Sporting Life…. I never dutched in those days, I just put the extra work in to find just the one bet that I thought should win, I might have done a "saver" in those days, but that’s doubtful….. I had this bee in my bonnet in those days, never bet two in a race, if you couldn’t find a winner from 3 selections, you were an idiot then…. but we know different now…. as you say, we’ve matured with age…..
Just as an addendum, today’s results were…. just ONE race today….
4.10 Yarm.. Zuider Zee…. 3.55….
Thubiaan…. 4.70….
Huff and Puff…. 13.00….
Bowdler Magic…. 7.80….

Huff and Puff discarded due to price….. winner was Bowdler Magic, so another +£10 in the bank…..

MrE

[billion]

Although this is not one for me I never mind sticking my nose in where it is not wanted.

The value of consistency is paramount and if you intend to use RP forecast sp’s anyone must remain faithful to them.

I did run through my "daily" and never found anything but when I re-checked Yarmouth 4.10 Bowdlers Magic is shown as 6th in the betting.

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

Yep…4th in the betting in the RP
also top rated by Formcast in the Mail altho, as Bill says not in the first four in the Mail betting forecast.
Well done MrE….I sincerely hope you haven’t given the game away….if it affects my prices I shan’t be at all happy!

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[MrE]

I didn’t know that you were following this method elc, so apologies for that…. you win some, you lose some….. but I must have misunderstood that these forums were meant to help other members out, if that was wrong, I stand corrected…..
There will be a few more goodies over the next couple of weeks elc, so you had better hang onto your nuts……

MrE

[elcartero]

That’s alright, MrE…..my fault, I forgot the .

It was an excellent post highlighting what I consider to be one of the best winner finding methods I have seen over the past few decades.
Please keep your contributions coming…they are always an enjoyable and thought provoking read and I’m sure I’m not the only one who will benefit from the dialogue they will inevitably inspire.

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[billion]

Blimey

"Windy"

you are giving

elcartero

sleepless nights getting him at the machine before 8.00 a.m.

Mind you I cannot disagree with his sentiments but as with most thought provoking postings on the board will and should come a few questions either for clarity or improvement.

And so I ask you if it would not better to use an odds comparison site rather than betfair?

betfair is limited to the ONE market whereas a spectrum of prices are available via just one comparison site.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

If I may perhaps I can elaborate on my posting regarding the use of betfair vs a comparison site.

Two races today which may be of interest offer some conflicting signals regarding prices.

2.35 Newbury

Odds comparison prices –

Licence to Till 8/1 –

Fine Threads 9/2 –

Elaabeya 6/1 –

Corsican Boy 7/1 –

Concl. Fine Threads should be deleted if running odss comparison and betfair so I cannot see any conflict but we do know prices change as the day progresses.

5.05 Ayr

Boss’s Destination 10/3 –

Bollin Judith 9/2 –

Mohawk Ridge 17/2 –

Puy d’Arnac 6/1 –

Concl. Boss’s Destination should be "booted out" if running odds comparison but with betfair Boss’s Destination is so marginaland if I had waited 4.5 could easily be available. However 10.0 on betfair is not 10/1 in the real world is it? So with a potential conflict possible perhaps you will kindly offer your thoughts.

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

MrE wrote:

how can you make it better??…. perhaps picking 2 instead of 3, can we safely kick out another selection without it hurting too much…. it’s up to you lot now…

…

This is where diligent record keeping might have provided the answer had I not been so bone idle over the years.

Reduce from 3 to 2 by deleting:

Highest Weighted
Lowest Weighted
Longest Since Run
Shortest Price
Longest Price
or
Any Other Option?

It should be possible without compromising the overall profitability of the method but the answer evades me and always has.

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[billion]

Staking 3 has always been a problem for me (figure dyslexic or something) I have driven poor

Formath

to the very edge in the past and am sure when he has completed his gardening chores he will chip in because I do know he loves Dutching 3.

If I may promote the hypothesis of the shortest price horse wins more races than the longest priced ones is it possible the following staking may work with this system: –

Shortest price selection – 3pts

Middle priced – 2pts

Longest priced selection – 1pt

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
I am not gardening being excused due to a heavy cold – being treated with whisky and lemsips. Looked at your two races and can’t find much wrong with the reasoning. I rated each race simply by the Clive Holt formula:

Newbury 2.35
Fine Threads 16 4.5 Betfair f/c – market 6.4 = OK
Elraabeya 13 6.6 Betfair f/c – market 7.8 = OK
The Only Key 9 21 Betfair f/c 21 = market 7.6 = eliminate

Ayr 5.05
Boss’s Destination 13 Betfair f/c 4.3 – market 6.4 = OK
Bollin Judith 12 Betfair f/c 5.5 – market 4.6 = eliminate
Puy D’Arnac 9 Betfair f/c 6 – market 6.2 = marginal

[billion]

Aha the old Heavy Cold ploy eh! Any excuse for a tot of whisky hey

Formath

.

Now all we have to do is get the other lazy "begger" out of bed to answer a few questions, unless

Matron

has been about with the hypodermic and Vaseline again.

Billy's Outback Shack

[MrE]

A bit late, just got back from the dentist, but it’s only about half hour later than I normally go on so it aint gonna make much difference….. I’ll go through the racing in a minute, but I just gotta tell Bill that the 2.35 Newbury is not a race for us because it has 11 runners, we’re only interested in 10 or less…. sorry Bill, more in depth later…..

MrE

[Author]

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