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This is really going to be a slow burner.
As I alluded to in the soul selection, as a punter I’m fed up with the shenanigans that see horses pulled from races with the full knowledge of the betting industry.
Corruption in racing is there in plain sight and punters should not be picking up the bill.
So I’m going to put up a few bookie busting bets over the coming months. As with all threads it will take a significant amount of time to bed in.
But rest assured it will hit the bookmakers where it hurts in time.
First selection
This runner has been off for 1085 days
Cork 1230
MINELLA MAJESTIC
Each way
Beat grand national winner Noble Yeats in a point to point and subsequently withdrawn from the sales all nearly three years ago now.
Would have earned trainer a pretty penny but he has held onto him.
Will certainly need further and will need the run. Two big yards have short priced race fit runners in front who have the distance.
So of course it would be a turn up to win here.
There will be much better bets put on this thread but this is the start and slowly but surely, inroads will be made into the big boy’s and girls’profits. The trainer’s involved in this mess should hang their heads in shame as they are the people crying out that we should own horse’s in their yards.
Remember in addition to the top horse’s not turning up we were left with walkover races and low fields.Friendly Star a good start.
PUNCHESTOWN
3.50
CATO CAPONE
Win
Winning distance
Any horse over 5.5 lengths.
Is a notnowcato and is sure to have improved from a point to point second to Encanto Bruno who remains unbeaten after three wins having won at Cheltenham recently.
JJ Codd rides and given the usual improvement from Gordon Elliott runners may prove too good for the odds on Lecky Watson.
The Mullins yard as usual are happy to put up overweight and run without a claimer….Narrow margins and stewards inquiry but Lecky won fair and square and as a huge imposing sort won with some to spare. Did well to get back up. Shows just how much these well developed bumper horses have in hand.
POUR UNE RAISON
Each way
Exeter
4.05The Fightback has begun. I did not expect to win a penny today on the start of a new thread. They always need time to bed in but this one is off to a flyer.
CATO CAPONE a winner at punchestown where the stewards have finally got it right and made a decision which supports racing on a massive weekend of self interest and own goals in England.
FRIENDLY STAR was third @ 9/1 at punchestown
While
POUR UNE RAISON stayed on to take fourth place at 18/1 paid four places at Exeter
Had I thought that either of them had no chance of winning I’d have put them down for place only, but both stayed on to take places.
*I am fascinated why Willie Mullins persists and allows his bumper horses to run without a seven pound claimer, no one else questions this and it makes me money. Lecky Watson would have won by at least seven lengths with Jody Townend on board, then no need for a steward’s enquiry.
My bookie is yet to pay the amended result, but it matters not..The FIGHTBACK HAS BEGUN!!!
Thanks Big G.
Will ramp things up slowly with a shortie tomorrow looks a quality runner and relatively unfancied but this yard are in form and looks a nice price and I’ll put it up tonight.
The search goes on for a nice tricast tomorrow and using the Alexander method I think one can be landed tomorrow.
Day two
Kempton 1315
Its samarrive vs LAC DU CONSTANCE
Nicholls vs Skelton.
Samarrive took a crushing fall when looking to go clear last time on chase debut.
Both of these runners are progressive and difficult to separate.
Samarrive has the higher overall profile and rating but in truth there may be little between the two.
Samarrive has an unplaced, pu and fallen in his CV, and it is this patchy record which may prove the chink in the armour which the Skeltons can chip away at through the race….Lac Du Constance is unbeaten over obstacles and goes chasing earlier than his rival did, having enjoyed wins at maiden, listed and novice level. Two good runs in bumpers also for the Skelton runner who is certain to have been well prepared for this by a trainer with an equestrian background. Samarrive is a big confident sort who travels really well and looks made for chasing. Likely very hard to beat but remains to be seen if the heavy fall has left it’s mark.
LAC DU CONSTANCE
WinSorry bookies but you are toast.
Lac DU Constance wins by 20 lengths along with the soul selection bolting up and the selection on the main thread winning by a wide margin too.Kempton 2.55
Molly Ollys Wishes win W/O Miranda
@ 1/1
Molly Olly’s wishes comes here in good form has to serve a penalty here which hugely benefits Miranda from the Nicholls camp.
Given the absolute donking dished out earlier,
Molly Olly’s wishes may still be good enough here.No joy as the weights told on Molly.
KEMPTON 3.25
MOULINS CLERMONT
Win
Winning distance
Over 4.5 Lengths
13/8 any horse
Easily ran a career best over the trip going this way at Sandown.
May have been a fluke but he beat a class horse who went on to run up a sequence.
May be in light here on handicap bow and no reason not to back him to win. Won’t be easy but has an obvious chance if ready, dropping back to two miles.
Pulled up in grade 2 juvenile at Cheltenham before winning again when last seen, but may be set alight going round this way……Ludlow 3.45
Gerrard Mentor
Each way
Comes back in good order having won two from last three runs.
Also has the help of a jockey claiming ten pounds which will be a great aid especially as the top weight rates a big danger on handicap debut.
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A cracker of selections on this thread with the overnight selection winning easily and Gerrard Mentor bolting up @ 7/1.
Some decent winners on the regular thread while the soul selection won easily too.Glad to say things have slowed down and Saturday’s antics made me take stock of punting and the rationale that goes with it and any picks have to meet a very strict criteria now. Hopefully the difference is already evident.
Day one and day two of the fightback has produced
Gerrard Mentor 7/1 lac Du Constance 2/1 Cato Capone the winners. Friendly Star @ 9/1 and
Pour Une Raison at 18/1 both placed.Day three…..
Sedgefield 3.25
Maiden Bumper.
Vollantis has run third twice now and brings good form and experience. A staying on third at listowel when last seen.
It is going to be a very expensive trip over the water for the trainer if this one doesn’t win.
Brian Hughes has been booked and an ordinary maiden has been found. little has been left to chance for this odds on jolly.
First problem, why cross the pond when there are plenty of opportunities in Ireland?
A five runner affair would fall apart with two non runners and the yard may have been seeking a cakewalk rather than a tougher bumper against the likes of Mullins and Elliot.
Second problem?, the great unraced.
Swallow’s song is bred in the purple.
Dam One Gulp was a listed winner and won her bumper on debut. Also a half sister to a grand national winner. This five runner race should be right up Swallow’s Song’s street.
Swallow’s Song
Win @ 7/4 bog
Sedgefield 3.25
Another bumper runner
Paul Nicholls Divilskin makes a debut under rules at Southwell 1335.
Odds on but the way around this is,
Divilskin to win by 3+ lengths @ 11/8
A massive six figure purchase in may at the big points sales after a decent win in a point to point in Ireland.ROCCO STORM
Win
2.55
Sedgefield
Remains under his hurdles mark in Ireland.
Found his feet in great style since joining yard and undergoing wind treatment.
Very well handicapped for two wide margin wins (latest here). and not stopping yet.A big winner in the unraced Swallow’s song.
3.35
Southwell
Grillon De Monty
Each way
Lelantos
Win
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GRILLON DE MONTY @ 14/1
Was outstayed by apples rock. On closer inspection, apples rock was down below a good mark and stepping up in trip. A decent pointer, placed second to none other than shiskin. Grillon de Monty therefore made a very good debut for Dan Skelton. Lelantos was third.
SWALLOW’S SONG was outstanding and despite never having raced before, put the odds on favourite in his pocket. Did his mother proud who also won on debut and his grand national winning uncle.(Rule The World won at Aintree 26/4/16.
Only a hundred or so views on the thread which after three days has produced winners on each day. Swallow’s song would have landed a few nice bets for a few people.Day four.
Nicky Henderson and his bookie pals brought me here so let’s see if he can assist.
Fair play to the silver tongued trainer, he made it pretty clear ( constitution hill) that he was worried about the ground last weekend and there will always be question marks and debate surrounding wether he will pull his runners or not.
It’s the connection to bookmaker’s which causes the issues for me and not wether or not they run. They always have the inside track through the yard and cynically set traps for punters armed with this knowledge.
While the Irish game is continually berated over it’s integrity issues, the British game has a rot all of it’s own.
Hereford 1250
WIND OF FORTUNE 🔮
66/1 each way
Hereford
Don’t tell David
Win
6/1
Nigel Twiston Davies let’s this one down after beating a Henderson favourite in the spring in very good style in a bumper. He gets half a stone from the odds on favourite here on hurdles debut. Son Sam takes the ride.
Certain to be well schooled after all this time off and if handling the conditions will go close.
Henderson’s Wind of fortune is a big price, J.Bowen’s only ride today as he seeks a first winner this month….2.50
WALKING THE WALK
Win.
(Write up is in the soul selection)* Final selections for this thread as I want to concentrate on the research into racing and handicaps and system selection. so hopefully they’ll all come home well and it will finish well in profit regardless of today’s outcomes.* All three days so far have produced at least one very good winner. Hopefully I’ve turned a negative into a positive so a good time to stop the thread and carry on with the soul selection and the Alexander method as the main target 🎯.
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