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Today at Musselburgh there is an opportunity to witness extremes of ability in one horse race. 2006 Prix l’Abbaye winner and 2007 Nunthorpe second Desert Lord and Group placed Borderlescott compete in the same race with one of the worst sprinters in training, Alfie Lee. There are a few others in the race, two of them almost as bad, but I am intrigued by how Alfie gets on.
Since he somehow won his third start as a 2YO, Alfie Lee has been on the downhill and has failed to finish in the first three in 58 starts spread over nine seasons. Even off his lowest mark in a handicap, which was 37, he still came 15th of 15.
Assuming a handicap mark for Alfie Lee 100lbs lower than Desert Lord and Borderlescott (100lbs = 33lengths = 6 seconds roughly) it seems that Alfie should cover the 5f at least 90% as quickly as the Group horses.
Is this about right, a 10% difference between the best and worst in horse racing?
If you work purely on time, then yes, but scale that 10% back up to the difference in ratings and you put the relative abilities into context.
Besides, 33l is a bloody long way in a sprint.
It would depend on the pace of the race and where the horses strengths lie, plus what form he and the others are in on the day.
If he is a fast finishing type (and I use that term very loosely) and the early pace is slow then he may not be beaten the full 33 lengths, but then if it is a fast pace then he could be back pedalling at the 3f pole and possibly beaten for more than 33 lengths.
My favourite piece of Nolan planning is when these horses are due to run off 7-12 in handicaps (in which they are probably at least a stone wrong even off the minimum 45 rating which none of them are rated anyway) and he puts someone like Mark Lawson on claiming three who can do about 8st 8lb so they carry about a stone overweight.
And he wonders why they finish last.
Where’s the fun in that??I would imagine there could be appearance money for todays race but wouldn’t know that for sure.
Nolan will be absolutely screwed if and when the proposed banning of sub-40 rated Flat horses comes into being.
Either that, or he’ll just move the whole lot across to novices’ hurdles however ill-suited many / all of them may be to that discipline (which is one of my chief grounds for opposition to the proposal).
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
They would be ideal horses for the new races proposed on some of the upcoming Arab racecards.
I think I’ve missed these completely, GD. Care to tell me and the good burghers of TRF what these entail, please?
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
If a horse is given a BHA rating of under 40 it apparently ceases to become a thoroughbred and is therefore eligible to compete in Arab races.
Arabian Racing Authority’s rules, not BHA.
Right, noted, thanks!
I suppose flapping would be another alternative, especially for those sub-40s from Nolan and other Northern / Scottish trainers’ yards? Bordersflapping’s interesting posts of a few weeks ago were a bit of a revelation to me – I knew there were some flapping meetings in Hawick and surrounding areas, but not quite as many as he outlined.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I think there are races now for Thoroughbreds below a certain rating that haven’t won in the last 3 years or something along those lines.
I’m sure Lehka could confirm whether that is right or whether I am talking complete beaulox just for a change.Ah rightyo Marcus,thanks for that.
I see horses that I’m familair with like Dolly and Ela Figura are on the list on the ARO website.
Alfie finished last beaten 32.25 lengths according to Sporting Life!
He’s improving anyway!
A satisfying result for the handicapper in that case.
What is the lowest-rated horse to win a flat race in recent times?
I think Auditor won a chase off 55 last week, a feat made particularly remarkable by the facts that he was only 9/2, had a form chance, and was in the handicap proper!
And I’m sure Mr. Nolan used to occassionally win races a few years ago, albeit not very often and at biggish prices and/or in weakish races…
Lord Advocate would probably be his best known horse of recent years and Mornin Reserves won a few for him also.
I think Auditor won a chase off 55 last week, a feat made particularly remarkable by the facts that he was only 9/2, had a form chance, and was in the handicap proper!
…none of which facts are more remarkable that the one that he is trained by the distinctly average Simon T Lewis!
Actually credit where it’s due – Lewis has had three or four winners in the last month after at least a year (and many, many runners) without, the most conspicious of which was Jug of Punch at Cheltenham a fortnight ago.
Interestingly, this was the third time in that gelding’s career with Lewis that he had won a race at odds of 50-1, and his overall return to a £1 level stake when sent off at 50-1 or bigger is now £145.00. I presume this is more to do with him belonging to an unsexy, and frequently comprehensively out of form, yard rather than anything more sinister.
Auditor’s win was in a selling chase, I think, the same medium in which his stablemate The Walnut Tree bagged a victory last month.
I don’t have my notes to hand, but I’m pretty sure Auditor’s previous win, in a low-grade handicap at Towcester, was from even further out of the weights than this latest one, and was gained despite Dave Mansell attempting to do the Time Warp (or at least its pelvic thrusts) on him all the way round.
As regards lowest-ever rated winners? One of the “Lambrini” horses of Lisa Williamson won a Kelso novices’ handicap chase in September 2006 from a long way out of the handicap. Although running as if off a higher mark, at the time his OR was a staggering 46 – exactly the same as Quixall Crossett’s when he retired. Similarly, Richard Guest saddled Master Gatemaker to win a Market Rasen selling handicap hurdle in 2003 or 2004 – the horse was out of the weights, but had a true OR of 47 at the time.
In terms of lowest-rated non-winners of races, some of the lowest I’ve seen in my time are;
HURDLES
========35 – Crestina Crossett, Ted Caine, 1992
(yes, this was after ORs were revised to the current scale!)FENCES
=======37 – Reliance Leader, Dai Williams, 2006
(before placing in a handicap when 25lb wrong blew that out of the water)
39 – Dual Star, Lisa Waring, 2006
41 – Iron Buck, Bill Davies, 2006
(Davies is having rather more luck with Arceye at present)FLAT
====Mojo and Lesmacadam were both rated 1 or 2 at their worst, weren’t they?
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
…none of which facts are more remarkable that the one that he is trained by the distinctly average Simon T Lewis!
Who seems to be enjoying unprecedented success, which you do allude to.
The yard have some Middleham Park Racing syndicate horses as well, and Blackheath has won on the flat for them this year.
It seems as though a corner has been turned for whatever reason, and the stable’s runners are no longer the (general) no hopers they always tended to be. At the moment, the market has not fully cottoned on, but I do wonder what, or who, underpins this change in fortunes…
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