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Some good points here Dave.
It never really surprises me that the majority of punters and quite a few pundits and media people do not know how the markets work.
On countless occasions, I have heard reports of ‘major’ gambles from say 50/1 down to 16/1. What nonsense.<br>It doesn’t take much money to move horses from very big prices to prices that are just big.
It is possible to measure the real strength of a market move. It is the change in the percentage probabilty caused by the gamble that indicates its strength, and this, in turn, is almost directly proportional to the change in the amount of money the horse (whose price shortens up) will cost the layer(s) should it win.
50/1(2%) down to 16/1(6%) is a market move of +4%.<br>Compare this with a market move of 5/4(44%) down to evens(50%), a move of +6%.
This subject will be debated once the increases in percentage probability per runner takes effect. Very soon.
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 12:26 pm on Oct. 22, 2006[br]1pt ew Lucky 15
1:35W Hot Zone<br>3:20A Il Duce<br>5:00A Balamory Dan (There are 4 with good chances here – this one is best priced)<br>3:00T Supreme Catch (Again this is not the obvious selection but I don’t agree it that it will definitely need the run though there is an element of risk)<br>
Unp <br>Pla @ 7/1<br>Pla @ 6/1<br>Pla@ 11/2 (should have gone with the obvious -it won!)
Stake 30pts<br>Return 36.2pts<br>Profit 6.2pts<br>Overall Profit 138.7pts
Totally agree Artemis. The headline figures grab the attention while the real market moves lie undiscovered. I said on another thread that I prefer to think in percentages and that is one of the reasons why.
Not an awful lot to pick from today and the selections are a little more speculative than normal.
1pt ew Lucky 15
2:20C Del Castillo Diaz<br>4:25C Mombassa (Hopefully will put its best foot forward)<br>2:20L Good Effect<br>3:50L Swift Cut
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 12:34 pm on Oct. 23, 2006[br]Not an awful lot to pick from today and the selections are a little more speculative than normal.
1pt ew Lucky 15
2:20C Del Castillo Diaz<br>4:25C Mombassa (Hopefully will put its best foot forward)<br>2:20L Good Effect<br>3:50L Swift Cut
Worst day yet with only a 7/1 place. You didn’t back them did you Cormack? Nah only kidding it was an iffy days racing though I ought to have done better in the 3:50.
Unp<br>Unp<br>Pla @ 7/1<br>Unp
Stake 30pts<br>Return 2.4pts<br>Loss 27.6pts :(<br>Overall Profit 111.1pts :o
A grand total of one qualifying race today. However there looks to be some good place terms offered about Dream Witness.
3:55C 3pts ew Dream Witness @ 13/2 (Blue Sq, Sporting Odds)
Oh dear! Some poor hurdling saw the horse weaken quickly 6f out. Plugged on for 5th or 6th but a very disappointing performance.
Loss 6pts
Quite a few races to look at today and as a result I spent a lot longer than I wanted to. Anyway….
4:45S Manoubi<br>2:10C Kimi (If he can jump I’d expect him to run to 120 which should see him edge out the fav)<br>5:05C Ballyfitz (certainly not a safe bet but smart hurdle form)<br>5:40C Powerberry<br>Res: 5:20S Northern Vic
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 1:39 pm on Oct. 25, 2006[br]Quite a few races to look at today and as a result I spent a lot longer than I wanted to. Anyway….
4:45S Manoubi<br>2:10C Kimi (If he can jump I’d expect him to run to 120 which should see him edge out the fav)<br>5:05C Ballyfitz (certainly not a safe bet but smart hurdle form)<br>5:40C Powerberry<br>Res: 5:20S Northern Vic
A terrible day with only a 9/2 place. Might have to have a little rethink.
Loss 29.1pts<br>Overall Profit 76pts :(
Ok a slight change in tact today with 3 horses picked that have a realistic change of winning and one that is (I hope) a very safe place.
1pt ew L15
2:50L Mujima (probably needed first run, will improve)<br>3:30S Herecomesstanley (safe place I hope)<br>4:25T Strangely Brown (unseated last time but smart performer and bid dnager to odds on fav)<br>5:00S Arctic Ghost (a tad risky but good odds so worth it)
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 12:05 pm on Oct. 26, 2006[br]Ok a slight change in tact today with 3 horses picked that have a realistic change of winning and one that is (I hope) a very safe place.
1pt ew L15
2:50L Mujima (probably needed first run, will improve)<br>3:30S Herecomesstanley (safe place I hope)<br>4:25T Strangely Brown (unseated last time but smart performer and bid dnager to odds on fav)<br>5:00S Arctic Ghost (a tad risky but good odds so worth it)
Another poor day with only 1 place and a non-runner. Biggest disappointment was Strangely Brown who ended up 4th. (I nearly went for Strong Project too) As a result horses that are less than 4/1 at selection time will not be considered.
Unp<br>N/R<br>Unp<br>Place @ 12/1
Loss 21.2pts<br>Overall Profit 54.8pts – this is going right down and i’m not happy about it :(
Right Zanida in the 2:05 is 20/1 with most firms (and bigger with a couple of minor firms) so I would suggest you go to one of them as they all pay double odds. No tight odds at the time of writing as they are all 5/1 or bigger.
1pt ew Lucky 15
1:00N Shmookh<br>1:30N SPice Gardens<br>2:05N Zanida @ 20/1<br>4:00U Young Lorcan
Lets hope the system gets back on track today.
Zanida ran on its own and soon fizzled out while Spice Gardens did naff all and Young lorcan was 4th. A loss of 27.4pts puts our overall profits in jeopardy.
On the basis of some disappointing results I am going to stop the system if it does not make a profit today. The 1:00 selection is risky but I have to go with it.
1:00N Arabian Gulf<br>1:40A The Last Huraah<br>3:25N Le Toscan<br>3:55A Present Orientated<br>Res 1:30N Measured Tempo
I thought I’d managed to get out of doing the system until Le Toscan was so inconsiderate as to win at 14/1. I think my record with reserves is 3 wins out of 4 as well so that is really taking the you know what so I’ll have to do something about that.:o
Unp (obvious one placed too – emotionally involved error by me – stupid)<br>Unp<br>Won @ 14/1<br>Unp
Returns 46.8pts<br>Profit 16.8pts<br>Overall Profit 44.2pts
Any system or method has to be followed for quite a time to see if it any good. I’ve had 9 consecutive losers but it doesn’t bother me because I expect losing runs as part of betting.
I don’t know what methods you use to make your selections, but you were doing very well a few weeks ago and you are still in front. I would only think about packing it in if I lost my bank.
For Lucky 15s. a bank of about 500 pts would be reasonable. It would take a very long time to lose that.
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