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I just feel like the system isn’t going anywhere Artemis. A lack of patience on my part but I haven’t yet had 4 places on this thread so I’m never making much and one or two places returns nothing. I’ll have another go at a Lucky 15 tomorrow and see what happens but I obviously need to do some tweaking.
Hey,
I’ve been watching this post for a while. It’s been interesting.<br>I know what you mean about lack of patience, but any tweaking you do, try to give it a few days to see the effects. I’m sure you do ;) but just a reminder incase you’ve slipped out of the discipline! :).<br>Not such a good day for me either, but there’s always tomorrow!<br>Good Luck,<br>Naikei
When you lose 500 pts doing Lucky 15s (triple odds for 1 winner), it will be time to reconsider your position, FSL.<br>I think this would take quite some time. If you lose at the rate of 10%, which is the most likely scenario, that’s 3.0 points per EW Lucky 15(on average). That equates to 166 bets, which will take you to the next flat turf racing season at 1 bet a day. You might be a fair judge and get that percentage loss down to 5%, which means your bank will last twice as long.
1:00F Zeloso<br>2:00F Cockatoo<br>2:10Fo Magical Legend 6/1<br>5:20W Scarlet Ibis
Back to the 1pt ew Lucky 15
For anyone doubting the impact of the changes of the SP system here is the betting of the 2:00 at Fakenham:
opening show/ sp/ % change (hand worked may be slightly out)<br>13/8 -> 5/4 +6%<br>13/8 -> 2/1 -5%<br>10/1 -> 8/1 +2%<br>16/1 -> 12/1 +2% (my selection not that it did anything)<br>16/1 -> 14/1 +1%<br>33/1 -> 16/1 +3%<br>66/1 -> 33/1 +1%<br>33/1<br>50/1 -> 40/1 +1%<br>66/1<br>66/1 -> 100/1 (I’ll be generous -1%)<br>100/1<br>100/1<br>From opening up at a reasonable sp% of 111% the end result was a market sp% of 122%. This tells me I’m going to have take nearly all the prices for this e/w system as all the e/w ones were backed.
This fool didn’t take the suggested price yesterday and so only got 29.24pts back. Taking the 6/1 would have resulted in 33.6pts back. Running Total -25.4pts
12:50H Cedrus Libani 11/1 – I’ve allowed myself to see the funny side here. I was going to take a gamble and select Shelomoh but as that is now a shorter price than the selection i may as well go for the obvious e/w one.<br>3:45K Siena Star 14/1<br>4:50K Towy Girl 9/2 – The market is real messed up here but the 9/2 may look good come post time<br>3:50H Nortonthorpe lad (best price is 4/1 but not with the companies with best above prices so I’ll go for SP)
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 12:31 pm on Nov. 15, 2006[br]This fool didn’t take the suggested price yesterday and so only got 29.24pts back. Taking the 6/1 would have resulted in 33.6pts back. Running Total -25.4pts
12:50H Cedrus Libani 11/1 – I’ve allowed myself to see the funny side here. I was going to take a gamble and select Shelomoh but as that is now a shorter price than the selection i may as well go for the obvious e/w one.<br>3:45K Siena Star 14/1<br>4:50K Towy Girl 9/2 – The market is real messed up here but the 9/2 may look good come post time<br>3:50H Nortonthorpe lad (best price is 4/1 but not with the companies with best above prices so I’ll go for SP)<br>
Won @ 14/1<br>Place @ 9/2<br>Unp @ 16/1<br>Unp @ 2/1 (Someone did a lot of money on it though I suspect not as much as the bookies are letting on. Backed from 9/2 to 2/1 while at the same time the favourite was backed from 5/6 to 4/6. Quite frankly the word that came to mind was scandolous but then again i guess only mugs take SP right?)
Return 36.7pts<br>Profit 6.7pts<br>Overall Loss 18.7pts :(<br>
Looking at the results of the past few weeks I think you are right Dave Jay (p3). If I can’t get 4 placed horses tomorrow or 3 winners I will start the system just betting each horse as a 1pt ew single. I will get a profitable system eventually – bank on it:o
Singles are the most reliable way to build up steady profits from a successful system, no doubt about that.
However, if your stakes are modest, there is no harm in keeping going with the lucky 15. Your first winner today at 11/1 made your bet very interesting from a ‘running -up money’ perspective. Your next runner had 1 + 12 + 24+12 = 49pts running on to it for the win part of the bet. you don’t get that kind of excitement from singles.
Yeah it didn’t happen though Artemis. The ultimate objective of the system is to make money not to generate excitement
13:25K Altay (something has to give in the betting here)<br>14:00K Maneki Neko 7/1<br>16:20W Shepherdess 8/1<br>17:20W Esthlos 12/1
1pt ew L15
Prices all with betfred for triple odds on one winner
Yes, of course FSL, but don’t forget the excitement. The memory of it may be all that’s left after the money has gone.
Quote: from Artemis on 5:49 pm on Nov. 17, 2006[br]Yes, of course FSL, but don’t forget the excitement. The memory of it may be all that’s left after the money has gone.
Thanks for that Artemis, you’ve cheered me up no end.
Return 13pts<br>Loss 17pts<br>Overall loss 35.7pts
Right I think I’ve done this thread to death. In the right hands the e/w Lucky 15 can be a great tool but i suspect it has to be done sparingly and done withhorses that are tight 5/1 shots rather than the 10/1 shots I go for. However I really like the concept of e/w bets with odds on favourites and I’m going to start a follow up thread where I back every horse e/w in a singles bet where there is an odds on favourite if appropiate. I just hope I don’t have any more Defi’s like i backed today – 4th at 66/1 a head from 3rd. (Can you tell I’m impressed?) Selections will be posted up when the prices are available and I will always take the best price available when i post the selection. One of the indicators I will continue to use is the place odds on Betfair. This is imo an important tool for ascertaining whether you are getting value or not.
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