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Medermit emerged from this contest as the best horse in the race, giving 12lb to the winner and third.
One could argue he was unlucky, having been directly in the path of Finger OnThe Pulse when that one came down four out, and again at the third last he was brought to a near standstill by the error of Salut Flo.
Like the trainer, I would love to see him over three miles one day. His longterm target is the Ryanair and that could be a race to savour.
Roudoudou Ville looks most progressive and definitely has a big race in him.
The whole Sunnyhillboy affair was strange. So strongly backed, the choice of McCoy and…tailed off.
Perhaps the explanation is that Sunnyhillboy will be AP’s Grand National horse and he just wanted a ride on the horse. Missing a winner for that doesn’t sound much like McCoy though!
Tatenen
was quite eyecatching for me. I thought he was travelling best on the turn for home, but he just flattened out on his first run of the season. I’ll be interested in him next time he runs.
Not as strange as you might think and you’re getting a wee bit carried away if you think AP would desert Don’t Push It for him, especially after the race he ran on his first outing this season.
At the weight AP got down to you can rest assured he was out to win.Jonjo said before the race yesterday he
Apparently the problem he was referring to is the same problem that caused him to run like a mule in the County Hurdle when they went for a right touch on him. For no reason that ever came to light the horse was never travelling well and stopped like shot before 3 out if memory serves me well. They checked the horse from top to bottom and found nothing so ran him at Aintree unbacked and he hacked up
Whatever it is that causes him to run well one day and run a shocker the next day would seem to be still a mystery and neither for the first time nor the last Jonjo was fooled by the horse and got it wrong IMOGreat ride from Geraghty, got at 7s in the week. Think Woolcombe Folly would have run a cracker, oh well, good day!
Think the front 3 look to have stand out chances for the rest of the season.
The two I like are
Quantitative Easing
and
Roudoudou Ville.
Rounding the home turn I am shouting one home; then, realising Medermit is a big danger, change to another alliegence…
Something I can do at home. Get some strange looks if I do it at the races! Dutching eh??
Value Is EverythingSo many mistakes in the race.
Quantitative Easing did his fair share, but no big blunders. Great Endeavour jumped superbly, before hardly rising at one. Divers eventually lost his jockey. Ghizao made some mistakes and blatently didn’t stay. If Nicholls can get his jumping together, may still play a part in the Queen Mum. Or is that just Wishful Thinking? No, that’s my other poor ante-post bet (for the Ryanair)
.Winner stayed on strongly up the hill and might do better at three miles. Medermit also made niggly little errors, but still put up his best ever performance. It’s nice to see Alan King back after a couple of years in the wilderness. Can’t quite see Medermit being good enough for the Ryanair and probably too high in the handicap by March time. Roudoudou Ville impressed with his jumping, improving fast and hopefully will gain a deserved good prize before the end of the season. Other principles all came from further back and it is possible Andrew Glassonburry went for home a little too soon. Although many up with the pace spoilt their chance with mistakes. Salut Flo will be interesting next time out, dare say David Pipe will wait for another big one. Still going fairly well when losing every chance with a bad mistake, probably too far out to do much damage to his handicap mark.
Value Is EverythingCan’t quite see Medermit being good enough for the Ryanair
REALLY? Bearing in mind that was near on a stone he gave the very useful Quantitiveeasing on Saturday and both finished running on very well over C/D i would dissagree there Ginger.Yes Master Minded has beaten him easily at Ascot but he has dissapointed at Cheltenham several times since his ‘performance of a lifetime’ (Champion Chase,08),obviously if the ‘real’ deal turned up he’d win but i’m looking for a new pretender to the 21/2m Crown,one that my fav chaser
Albertas Run
has worn proudly.I believe so long as a horse is rated around the 165 mark then he,s a worthy Ryanair contender,Medermit ran off 157 at the weekend and has to be raised 5lb for that performance so arguably he’s a player already but what i like about this fellow is he loves Cheltenham and i reckon he’s a good 5-8lb better horse around there,yes at times he can be clumsy and he always seems to hit a flat spot but again he’s never fallen and he responds to pressure,i still believe there’s improvement to come and when i look at the profile of previous Ryanair winners,he fits the bill and guess what look at their records around Cheltenham. Bet365 go 10/1,that would be about right imo. The Tote go a massive 20/1,that is way too big for a horse who certainly gets up the hill.
He’s a horse with an annoying quirk Medermit.
He always seems to be the first horse to come off the bridle but keeps finding and has you jumping up and down if you’ve backed him.
Most of the time something does him but you can never rule him out.
One day he’ll run on better than them all and some class horse will have an off day and he’ll come out on top when least expected.
He could just about win any race if things went his way. That could easily be the Ryanair but never in ta month of Sundays could you back him in any race with confidence.
He’s a horse with an annoying quirk Medermit.
He always seems to be the first horse to come off the bridle but keeps finding and has you jumping up and down if you’ve backed him.
Most of the time something does him but you can never rule him out.
One day he’ll run on better than them all and some class horse will have an off day and he’ll come out on top when least expected.
He could just about win any race if things went his way. That could easily be the Ryanair but never in ta month of Sundays could you back him in any race with confidence.
This is hardly fair. Im struggling to see any qurik that he has? What’s been proven time and time again with him that at 2 miles, he isn’t quick enough to beat the very best. He got outpaced and stayed on in the supreme, wasn’t good enough in the Champion and didn’t have the pace for an arkle. He’s run exceptionally well in Cheltenham both times over 2 1/2 whilst running very well in the Haldon.
His jumping can be iffy at some, but usually its pretty sound. He should be a major player over 2 1/2 + for the rest of the year.
Can’t quite see Medermit being good enough for the Ryanair
REALLY?….
…. The Tote go a massive 20/1,that is way too big for a horse who certainly gets up the hill.
As I said, "can’t
quite
see Medermit being good enough". That doesn’t mean he has no chance at all. To be value at 20/1 you obviously only need to believe he has a better than 5% chance of winning. So you probably have got some value there Gord.
Value Is EverythingPardon my cynicism, did AP actually opt for Sunnyhill or was he under orders? Allows QE price to drift and JP to lump. Just saying?
Can’t quite see Medermit being good enough for the Ryanair
REALLY?….
…. The Tote go a massive 20/1,that is way too big for a horse who certainly gets up the hill.
As I said, "can’t
quite
see Medermit being good enough". That doesn’t mean he has no chance at all. To be value at 20/1 you obviously only need to believe he has a better than 5% chance of winning. So you probably have got some value there Gord.
So what price do you associate a horse with No chance then Ginge? I think
Medermit
has a 100% chance of being placed,like i did on Saturday and i would say i think he has a 99% chance of winning,if i thought a horse only had a 5% chance of winning i wouldn’t bet on it,thats like saying if Medermit ran in the Ryanair a 100 times i would be happy if he won it 6 times (1% more chance than 5%)
No i would be gutted,if i think he can win it once then thats all he has to do so thats why i would be so confident at 99%,the 1% doubt is if he gets mugged again!If you think Medermit has a 99% chance of winning Gord, re-mortgage the house, get the gold out and Mrs K’s jewellry, and get down the pawn shop quick (that’s p a w n, not p o r n). A 99% chance would be value at 1/20 let alone 20/1.
If you think Medermit has a 1/100 chance of winning (99%) what do the rest (individually) have? Do you really win 99% of these "99%" chances? I guess that’s an exaggeration!
I’d be glad to win 6 in 100 of my 20/1 bets Gord. Over 20% profit on investment! Although to back a 20/1 shot I must believe it to have a fair 7% chance (or more). There must be some allowance made for magin of error.
That Stormy Weather who ran against Grandouet on Saturday had "No Chance"! My 100% books only go down as far as 0.05% chances (fair 2000/1). Anything worse than that, I don’t bother giving a percentage.
There’s over-confidence and there’s Kingfisher.
Value Is EverythingPardon my cynicism, did AP actually opt for Sunnyhill or was he under orders? Allows QE price to drift and JP to lump. Just saying?
I think JJM, AP’s head was turned by Jonjo being so bullish. AP said as much (although didn’t quite put it in those terms) in an interview on RUK while going to weigh in on Darlan on Friday (I think).
To be fair, I think AP only rode Don’t Push It to win the National because Jonjo was so bullish. So you can understand it in some ways, even though you and I knew he’d cocked it up!
Value Is EverythingHe’s a horse with an annoying quirk Medermit.
He always seems to be the first horse to come off the bridle but keeps finding and has you jumping up and down if you’ve backed him.
Most of the time something does him but you can never rule him out.
One day he’ll run on better than them all and some class horse will have an off day and he’ll come out on top when least expected.
He could just about win any race if things went his way. That could easily be the Ryanair but never in ta month of Sundays could you back him in any race with confidence.
This is hardly fair. Im struggling to see any qurik that he has? What’s been proven time and time again with him that at 2 miles, he isn’t quick enough to beat the very best. He got outpaced and stayed on in the supreme, wasn’t good enough in the Champion and didn’t have the pace for an arkle. He’s run exceptionally well in Cheltenham both times over 2 1/2 whilst running very well in the Haldon.
His jumping can be iffy at some, but usually its pretty sound. He should be a major player over 2 1/2 + for the rest of the year.
Maybe quirk is the wrong word but very often you will here pundits referring to Medermit as a horse who keeps finding. He keeps finding because no matter what company he runs in he seem to come under pressure at some point.
You can call it whatever you want but that is just him and as long as he does that there’s always a very good chance he’ll be beaten like he was on Saturday.
Agree with H, Medermit does have a quirky nature. Did run out once when leading. Is capable of jumping well, but sometimes doesn’t. Is capable of travelling well, but sometimes doesn’t. May be it was mainly the trip in the Arkle, but didn’t seem to want to know anyway.
Value Is EverythingThat performance by
Medermit
on Saturday was good enough to Win a Ryanair Chase!Simple as that,quirks or not,if he turns up in March and gets the gallop he got on what i would describe as over-watered ground in the same form as Saturday he will be bang there and at 20/1 he is way over-priced imo of course.
That performance by
Medermit
on Saturday was good enough to Win a Ryanair Chase!Simple as that,quirks or not,if he turns up in March and gets the gallop he got on what i would describe as over-watered ground in the same form as Saturday he will be bang there and at 20/1 he is way over-priced imo of course.
And what about our old favourite, Gord?
He nearly sneaked us a place.
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