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With the race now cut up to probably only eight going to post, and seemingly Khyber Kim the only one without a chance, where will the pace come from?
Will Rock On Ruby or Zarkandar try to wind it up from the front and try and stay there? Or will it be set it up perfectly for a small field bully / speedster like Hurricane Fly?
I think without a strong pace you can also say Grandouet and Binocular’s chances will suffer as a consequence, or will Khyber Kim be the one to tow them along at a decent pace?
All in all I can only see the small field and no confirmed front runner benefitting Hurricane Fly.On the contrary, surely a slow pace would suit the fastest horses in the race (Hurricane Fly, Grandouet and Binocular) providing they are sensibly placed. The slower Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar would be at the biggest disadvantage.
Good point though. I can’t see Khyber Kim ever front-running. Perhaps Daryl Jacob will try the Celestial Halo tactics on Zarkandar.
Hurricane Fly as he has the gears in small fields / slow pace, but with strong travelling types like Grandouet & Binocular, I would have thought a stronger pace would suit better?
Can see it being fairly slow before quickening at the top of the hill… Unless that is Zark goes on. He’s the one that probably needs a truly run race (at least on goodish ground). Given a poor ride last year when held up for a late run (outpaced before staying on too late). Needs to be closer this time around unless someone makes it a stamina test.
Rock On Ruby won’t be hindered if going for broke from the hill.
Grandouet travels so well and (imo) has speed to cope with a slowish pace. Indeed, wonder if he’d stay in a strongly run race on a stiff track.
Binocular probably needs a stronger pace than his stable-mate these days.
Hurricane Fly shouldn’t be inconvenienced either-way, unless (if slow) given too much to do.Value Is EverythingGonna be one helluva race, really looking forward to it. Tactics/Jockeyship will play a huge part in the outcome, anyone caught napping for a stride or two will leave the race behind.
I have to make sure I shout from the stands "come on The Fly" and not "Come On Ruby" or i’ll be encouraging the wrong beast home !!
I think the winner will be rock on ruby or cinders and ashes.
rock on ruby to get harry frys name in the history books at last.
Siding with Hurricane Fly more and more, becoming a nice price now with soft ground expected.
If zarkandar is anywhere near the front at the bottom of that hill, then i can see him blitzing it – a true classy horse who has never got the recognition he deserves, and a little bit off topic – mtoy lay of the day!
My two ante post tips were Go Native and Darlan… Both fell when seeming about to boost their credentials too.
I think the market doesn’t reflect much value in a competitive race and ill have an each way punt on Kyber Kim. Just for an interest
I don’t see anything setting the race up for a true grinder this year like overturn, so with all eyes on rock on ruby I don’t expect anyone else to commit until between the last two. A turn of foot should be essential this year as no doubt RoR will have taken it up someway out in an effort to repeat last years tactics which goes against zarkandar. Hurricane too short, which despite his poor prep leaves grandouet or binny for me.
Regarding Zarkandar, something doesn’t add up about the explanation of his defeat in last year’s race. Paul Nicholls said the horses were coughing and under the cloud of some sort of bug. Zarkandar didn’t shape like that at all.
He absolutely devoured the hill and finished like a train, albeit well behind the winner. Only Rock On Ruby finished the race stronger. If you were feeling a little weak with the man flu, would you be surging up the Cheltenham hill at the end of two miles? I contend that Zarkandar was in perfect health, but just exposed for the slowboat he is on good ground. Grandouet for me.
Zarkander is a clear case of preferring the stamina testing New Course, as seen in The Triumph and International. The Champion Hurdle is run on The Old Course, favours those with speed, they will go hell for leather. Everything in Grandouet’s favour in my opinion. If good is in the description, he is the bet of lifetime.
favours those with speed, they will go hell for leather.
If they go hell for leather sure it will favour stamina horses?
Regarding Zarkandar, something doesn’t add up about the explanation of his defeat in last year’s race. Paul Nicholls said the horses were coughing and under the cloud of some sort of bug. Zarkandar didn’t shape like that at all.
He absolutely devoured the hill and finished like a train, albeit well behind the winner. Only Rock On Ruby finished the race stronger. If you were feeling a little weak with the man flu, would you be surging up the Cheltenham hill at the end of two miles? I contend that Zarkandar was in perfect health, but just exposed for the slowboat he is on good ground. Grandouet for me.
Zarkander is a clear case of preferring the stamina testing New Course, as seen in The Triumph and International. The Champion Hurdle is run on The Old Course, favours those with speed, they will go hell for leather. Everything in Grandouet’s favour in my opinion. If good is in the description, he is the bet of lifetime.
I can’t see how Grandouet is ‘the bet of a lifetime’ no matter what the ground come up?! Poor prep and worked poorly last week apparently, the 3 ahead of him in the market are there on merit and all hold better claims imo.
a lot will depend on the ground here. personally can’t have hurricane fly at the price, and I think zarkandar is slow and overrated, but if there was significant juice in the ground you’d have to think it would favour them of the principals.
for me the winner is rock on ruby as long as the ground isn’t too bad. reminds me of a hardy eustace scenario, a champion going back who hasn’t got the respect he deserves.
ok he got beat in december but the ground was desperate. it can’t possibly be that bad on tuesday. also he’s come on since then, you’d have to think.
grandouet is probably the one horse with a devastating turn of foot, but he’s never looked that impressive coming up the hill. if this was aintree around two miles on quick ground he’d probably be a shoe-in, but it isn’t. he’ll have to battle to get past rock on ruby and I have my doubts about that.
the other one i’d give a chance to is cinders and ashes, as even with the rain, the ground will be far better than what he’s been running on all winter.
having looked through the other entries, and don’t laugh will you, but i’d also give a squeak to cotton mill
was tanking along in the neptune but probably got tired which may have lead to him running out. last time out he clearly got tired in that desperate ground against my tent or yours.
this champion has the look of a big outsider winning to me- because none of the favs look exactly bomb-proof, and there’s no obvious pace on either. who’s going to make it? cinders and ashes on sufferance perhaps.
The pace angle is a tough question. Thinking about who will probably make the running…
Rock On Ruby has done it in the past, but probably will sit handy and try to replicate last year’s winning tactics.
I imagine Zarkandar would make the running on sufferance if nobody else does, but Paul Nicholls has said he worries about the horse being lit up by that.
Cinders And Ashes has never made the running in his career. Not the race to experiment.
Binocular and Hurricane Fly weren’t close enough last year, so their jockeys will want to avoid making that mistake twice. Probably just handy, rather than trying to make all..
Balder Success, Grandouet and Khyber Kim are hold-up horses.
Cotton Mill will be right up there no doubt. He has never made the running alone before, but has usually been running in huge fields including die-hard frontrunners. He is one of the most likely, imo. Countrywide Flame is often up there too. He lacks a little pace, so surely must be at the front if connections have any sense.
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