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Have to agree, I couldn’t have Darlan either. The form from last years supreme and triumph hurdles looks all over the place, although to be fair the ground has been terrible for quite a long time now to really know. I’m sure Cinders and Ashes will show better form at the festival on better ground for example. To be vying for favouritism on the back of his recent win seems a little false given, as Couteau says, the race turned into a bit of a sprint. Dont like backing favourites at the festival anyway, when I back a favourite I fully expect them to oblige and they rarely do.
And yes Pants, good skills on spotting the 9/2 on the Fly, just hope you backed it e/w!
Seems we agree on Darlan Andrew, shame your judgment has gone awry on the Fly! We’ll find out in 41 days!
Darlan simply hasn’t got the same level of grade one form in the book, apart from a joke of a race at Kempt on. Compared to the four big guns he’s got lots of unanswered questions against him which contradict his price. As someone else has mentioned you can only assume stable information has added momentum to the shortening of his price. I’d not consider anything less than 8/1 for his chances. To say the Fly was 9/2 after his Xmas win and Darlan was shorter was incredible given what a champion he is.
Can’t wait to shout him up the hill. If Grandouet is with him I’ll be doubly happy:-)Bit gutted I’ve missed all the 20/1 on C&A, I think a bit like Son of Flicka he comes alive and is trained purely for the festival. Whilst the form of last year’s Supreme has taken a few knocks he is clearly a very talented animal and seems to have a great turn of foot. his action requires fast ground so backing ante post may be a bit risky, but will have some of the 16s as I think he’ll be around the 10/1 mark come March.
As someone else has mentioned you can only assume stable information has added momentum to the shortening of his price
They rate him very highly, that much is known. And it is not a factor you can ignore given the benchmarks they have is it?
Both the Christmas Hurdle and Feltham are poor Cheltenham form lines historically. And for that reason, Darlan – i’m out.
Darlan is a completely false price compared to what he has achieved. He will have no chance whatsoever against an in form Hurricane Fly.
It wouldn’t surprise me if McCoy rides Binocular instead anyway, as after his schooling session behind Hurricane Fly the other day, and gets another run beforehand, he will be much more of champion hurdle horse come March than Darlan will be. I reckon you will be able to get 10/1 or bigger about Darlan come the day if McCoy deserts him.
Grandouet and Zarkandar are both the same price yet Zarkandar has beaten him twice at Cheltenham. Zarkandar (not quite right) was behind Rock on Ruby, (Hurricane Fly probably not quite right either) give mixed formlines all over the place. Binocular beat Rock on Ruby in the Christmas hurdle also.
My assumption on the big race is that it will probably be fought out by the three previous champions.No doubt Darlan will hose up now!!
I backed two shorties at last year’s Festival – Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe. They reduced what would have been an exceptional betting week to a good one. Of course both are subsequently unbeaten their fortunes contrasting markedly with the winners. For me they went down so tamely that another year on I couldn’t contemplate backing either again.
You have to question how much substance there really is in Hurricane Fly’s string of victories. Outside the two Champion Hurdles he has consistently been beating up small fields of pretty much the same horses. The Champion Hurdle win was lauded at the time but was it such a great performance to beat Peddlers Cross? If you are with him again you are pinning your hopes on a considerable deterioration in the runner up and a belief that all was not right with the favourite last year. On the other hand could Rock On Ruby have just taken him out of his comfort zone and on ground quicker than he now appreciates he just waved a white flag?
If the ground does dry up – admitedly a big if – the value probably still lies with Cotton Mill.
Stilvi, the Fly has had the perfect preparation, Willie says they will have him more prominent as he oversettled last year. Nothing could have been more impressive than him. He’ll take it up just after two out and IMV he’ll win by 3-4 lengths. The rest have untold question marks against them so far due to interrupted preparations.
You give strong views as to why HF won’t win – so what will?
I don’t think anyone could contemplate backing Sizing Europe if he goes for the QMCC, but he’s certainly not gone backwards.It’s not a race I would have any great confidence about but my suggestion would be to wait for NRNB and take the 25/1 Cotton Mill in the hope the ground dries up. I would prefer the question marks at that price rather than the question marks about Hurricane Fly at 3/1.
Should state I would only be keen on Cotton Mill if O’Regan was riding as I see him as one of the few jockeys who can really make a significant difference. Might be heading for a difficult decision if Countrywide Flame runs well tomorrow particularly as he replaced Costello earlier in the season.
Stilvi
Glad to see some good words mentioned for Denis O Regan. I have been banging on how good he is ever since he came over from Ireland. Last weeks win on Cape Tribulation would have been raved about if it was Walsh or Mccoy.
As I understand it John Ferguson has first call on his services so not sure he would have the choice even if Countrywide flame scooted home tommorrow. Im working but think I will have to slip off to the bookies to watch the race at Donny.
As a by point I think Cotton Mill will go very close in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury next week.
Martin
Stilvi
Glad to see some good words mentioned for Denis O Regan. I have been banging on how good he is ever since he came over from Ireland. Last weeks win on Cape Tribulation would have been raved about if it was Walsh or Mccoy.
As I understand it John Ferguson has first call on his services so not sure he would have the choice even if Countrywide flame scooted home tommorrow. Im working but think I will have to slip off to the bookies to watch the race at Donny.
As a by point I think Cotton Mill will go very close in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury next week.
Martin
If I owned a horse and couldn’t get Geraghty then DOR would be my next choice.
Scandalously under rated / used.
Absolute Tragedy. JP has suffered some terrible luck with his top horses.
He was the one I wanted to beat at Cheltenham, if The Fly or Grandouet do the business for me it will be a hollow win, that’s for sure. He looked special today and would probably have joined/passed HF at the head of the market.Zarkandar my main bet with savers on Grandouet and Rock on Ruby, although I’ve just added Pearl Swan at 85 – I think he has a fine chance in the Betfair and is still seriously unexposed.
I was on Hurricane Fly lat year and year before. Not seen anything to suggest he’s improved to regain the CRown. Happy with Grandouet who has strengthened up and imo only race fitness saw him beaten by Zarkander. Happy to stay with Grandouet and have Zarkender as danger.
I know My Tent Or YOurs gave him a sound beating there but would it put you off backing Cotton Mill?
25/1 seems massive since he isnt keen on heavy ground (maybe the shorter 2m helped him cope), so with better ground, being off that long and the hill also a help I can see him running a massive race.
if my tent or yours ran in the champion he’d jizz up against an average field, but I have a feeling he won’t.
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