- This topic has 214 replies, 56 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Zarkandar has won on all types of ground but judging from his last two victories, softer ground would seem to suit. He was a little outpaced last year, but rallied in the last furlong but was ultimately well beaten. Definitely is high class, but not sure if he has the gears to win.
Ground dependent, I think C&A can cause an upset. Likes Cheltenham, travels well, jumps well.
grandouet is probably the one horse with a devastating turn of foot, but he’s never looked that impressive coming up the hill.
Apart from when smashing Overturn in the International
He’s still a ‘ potential ‘ horse and his best runs – Punchestown and Cheltenham – have all come after two or three runs.
The more l look at this with the expected soft ground, the more i think it’s there for the Fly. How far would he have beaten Khyber Kim at Wincanton ?!
probably a long way.
take your point about the international but was watching that earlier even then he wasn’t that impressive- for me overturn is not the hardest horse to get past.
More anti Hurricane Fly (lay of the meeting) views in the British press again today. Can someone please take me through in a rational way why HF should not be favourite? (about 7/4 looks right in my view).
Here are the main points of criticism against the Mullins runner and my responses, please feel free to rubbish or correct them.1. When he was at Cheltenham last he was comprehensively beaten by Rock On Ruby. I see no reason why he should reverse that form etc……
R1. Surely any balanced review of HF’s form leads to the conclusion that the 2012 Champion Hurdle was not the demonstration of his ability but an outlier in an otherwise almost perfect record. It could be argued that he disappointed nevertheless but an analysis of his preparation gives strong support to the fact he was not in peak shape/condition.
His moderate effort (in victory) at Punchestown afterwards supports a view that he was not himself that spring.2. His actual Champion Hurdle win was a poor renewal, last years was better, he beat nothing.
R2. This is a rewriting of history, in my view, he and Peddlers Cross drew much further clear of the other placed horses than last years winner. In addition whilst Peddlers has undoubtedly disappointed since a close look at his profile on CH day 2011 reveals that he was un unbeaten hurdler, Neptune & Mersey novice winner at both the big Festivals the previous spring. When graduating to senior ranks he then beat the reigning Champion Hurdler in the Fighting Fifth at Newbury and also broke the track record in the Morebattle. In other words he was an unbeaten potential superstar who met his match in HF.3. Hurricane Fly only runs in small field races in Ireland which are uncompetitive.
R3. There may be a grain of truth in this but they are uncompetitive due to HF’s talent. There also seems to be a strong double standard here. The 4 main Champion Hurdle trials races in England this year The Fighting Fifth, The Bula, The Christmas Hurdle & the Contenders Hurdle (Doncaster) had 4,7,7,4 runners. The impression you get from the media over here is that the English based horses are tested in the mettle of big field competitive races whilst HF beats a handful of runners. Well they are not exactly running in the Stewards Cup themselves.4. Hurricane Fly beats the same horses over and over in Ireland.
R4. It is true that Solwhit and then Thousand Stars feature prominently in HF’s race record but the subtext of this charge is that he is conservatively campaigned in comparison to the hardy, fearless English based horses (see above). Looking at the Champion Hurdle field only Binocular and Countrywide Flame have left England since joining their current trainers. Neither has won. Since he joined Willie Mullins, Hurricane Fly has been campaigned in Ireland, England and France winning Graded races in all three territories…he is by far the most ambitiously and courageously campaigned runner in the Champion Hurdle field.5. He may not like Cheltenham (despite winning and placing in Champion Hurdle).
R5. He is 50% at Cheltenham (3rd best win ratio in the field) but that is a very small sample size. Countrywide Flame is 100% and Zarkava 66% but all those wins were on the New Course. Interestingly Rock On Ruby who is variously described as a ‘Cheltenham stalwart’ and ‘loving the place’ has been beaten on the majority of his runs there. 2 wins from 5 runs (40%). ROR does clearly like Cheltenham but there is a selective bias in the analysis of the relative suitability of the course.
Binocular is 1 win from 4 runs at Cheltenham and despite everyone saying he is a spring horse he has a much better win record in the winter months. He has only ever won one race outside the Dec-Feb period.So in summary it comes down to this, how do you rate Hurricane Fly’s chances based on the evidence of his form and profile. Is the 20i2 Champion Hurdle race the epitome of his ability or does his failure there actual demonstrate that that piece of evidence is an outlier, an exception that proves the rule that this is a horse with a better race record than Istrabraq and probably with at least an equal talent.
I take the latter view and hope and think he wins.
Shabby I’ve been meaning to write something similar all week but haven’t found the time.Have been getting slightly annoyed and bemused by his constant knockers but in the comfort that he will probably drift to 11/4 on the morning of the race.
Just one point to add, the horses he keeps beating and they are the same horses are damn good ones, Thousand Stars form against OW the last two years at Aintree a case in point. HF has beaten Binocular 3 times, absolutely thrashing him on 2 of those occaisions yet some people seem to favour Binocular over HF even this year. Astonishing.
The only slight negative for me is if he gets worked up before the race, he may still win even then, if not and he settles and he may well do at 9 now I think/hope we may see something a bit special.
I dismiss any Hurricane Fly argument when people comapre him to Istabraq, Istabraq in a Champion Hurdle would have 10 lengths ahead of him, never in the same universe these horses.
Zarkandar gave Prospect Wells how much weight and still won, Hurricane Fly beat Thousand Stars on heavy who then got thrashed on the same ground by On His Own for crying out loud with no excuses.
In my view Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar are the ones winning this race with the bad forecast, but no one can justify Hurricane Fly’s price beating the same horse over again and Binocular on heavy with very suspect use of the whip by McCoy that day, Huricane Flys form this season doesnt justify 7/4 and Zarkandar is massive value at 5/1
Great write-up Shabby. The same thoughts i’ve had but I couln’t put it as eloquently!
The simple fact nowadays is there is too much lazy journalism. Check that everyone calls Rule The World ‘a big raw horse’. Not one journo called him this until Mouse labelled him a ‘big raw bugger’.
I re-ran the 2011 and 2012 champions last night – in 11 Hurricane was pulling away in the last 25 yards from Peddlers and they were going one hell of a speed up the run in. To say he was ‘all out’ and scraped home is a bit of an insult. Whereas in 12 Hurricane showed guts to pull himself within a couple of lengths at the last but just couldnt maintain the effort and weakened in the last 75 yards. This was not a horse in tip-top shape. Where was Overturn in 11 vs 12? Comfortably stuffed.
Hurricane has shown his old zip this season, hurdling fluently a was really motoring when Go Native came down at Punchestown.
Him and Zarkandar are the only two that would fit the bill for the perfect preparation – three runs, three wins, nicely spaced out.May the negative talk continue – i’m on at 6/1 down to 7/2, but if things are going my way i’ll be filling my boots with anything > 2/1 on course.
I dismiss any Hurricane Fly argument when people comapre him to Istabraq, Istabraq in a Champion Hurdle would have 10 lengths ahead of him, never in the same universe these horses.
Zarkandar gave Prospect Wells how much weight and still won, Hurricane Fly beat Thousand Stars on heavy who then got thrashed on the same ground by On His Own for crying out loud with no excuses.
In my view Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar are the ones winning this race with the bad forecast, but no one can justify Hurricane Fly’s price beating the same horse over again and Binocular on heavy with very suspect use of the whip by McCoy that day, Huricane Flys form this season doesnt justify 7/4 and Zarkandar is massive value at 5/1
How about Unaccompanied? Beaten 46 lengths on two runs against an eased down HF but split Zarkandar and Grandouet in The 2011 Triumph?
That 49l is a not a true reflection though, 7l last time although Hurricane Fly still pissed up but Grandouet put her well and truly in her place in the rematch.
Speaking of Grandouet, looks to be either a not even running or Binocular is hammering him on the gallops drifting mega on Betfair.
That 49l is a not a true reflection though, 7l last time although Hurricane Fly still pissed up but Grandouet put her well and truly in her place in the rematch.
Was Thousand Stars’ run behind On His Own a true reflection?
Concerned over the wellbeing of Grandouet
Twice he has been a massive drifter on Betfair in the last month or so. No reassuring comments from Henderson or Geraghty, other than the bland statement "went a good gallop and it was all good". Personally i’d be looking for a bit more than that on a Champion Hurdle hopeful!- Total Posts 764
Could the forecast ground be the reason for Grandouet drifting?
Blinkers suggest they want Rock On Ruby to make the running. Celestial Halo wore first time headgear in this race despite looking pretty genuine with the idea of "sharpening" him to set the pace.
well if he’s as slow as celestial halo he’s got no chance anyway.
ground turned against ruby in any case?
starting to think henderson is putting everyone away with grandouet. was interviewed earlier and didn’t say much about the horse. makes me think the stable fancy him. they are much more bullish about binocular, which given chemical nicky’s past form, makes grandouet a cert
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.