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I spend most of my time on wide-open races, or beating my head against a wall trying to find an outsider to beat the favourite.
I’ve been wondering for a couple of weeks now about backing short-priced horses, and see what happens.
There have been a few horses in the past few weeks that were bleeding obvious, including even an obvious treble on Boxing Day on Long Run, Go Native and Kauto Star.
There’ll probably be a couple of selections this week, and then after that there probably won’t be much for the next few weeks.
Anyway, the first horse I regard as bleeding obvious is Miko De Beauchene in the Welsh National.
By the way, don’t back these! I just want to see how good/bad I am.
For what it’s worth Gerald, when it comes to picking potential winners, I’ve always been an advocate of the "bleeding obvious "
I find it pays more often than not.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
4th, but as these are supposed to be bleeding obvious it is win, and not each-way.
The trouble I’ll have with this thread Himself is that I’ll have to start looking at other races that I don’t usually bet in, and that is why I’m not expecting too many selections in the next month, because of the type of racing on offer and my lack of knowledge.
Have had a treble/double on Daves Dream, Voler la Vedette and Cooldine; have never had one of these bets before [my dad used to have a 3×4 penny double and a 6 penny treble every saturday]. Used £1 of my Dream Alliance winnings.
You little devil.
Roll Along, although an obvious bet is a dodgy bet. I’ve rather turned a blind eye to the horse’s form, the trainer’s form, and the going. However, I thought 10/1 about the best horse in a 5 horse race was a reasonable price.
I’ll be a little devil as well – Quantitativeeasing and Big Buck’s in a double, might get close to Evens combined. (Paper bet.)
I think I can say in all honesty that this has not been entirely successful……no more ‘trixies’for me methinks….
Sorry Moe.
Back to Roll Along. Jumped appallingly. Is it possible to just blame that on the ground??? He finished the race off well enough, so I wouldn’t write him off for the rest of the season.
Double was 2/5 and 1/2, which pays £2.10 to a £1 stake.
Balance -90p[/color:2ydyix83]
Gerald, dont give up on Roll Along yet. He needs good ground and has a decent prize in him. Long range, he’s my Gold Cup outsider (not to beat Kauto or Denman) but to perhaps pinch 3rd at huge odds.
Haven’t had a bet Doug, and I doubt I will, but the two outsiders I fancy to sneak a place in the Gold Cup are Mon Mome and Cloudy Lane. Cue Fist rolling his eyes.
When Halfway mentioned Wotashirtfull I had no idea until I looked at the race that he was running in a Seller! He came a close placed on both his seasonal debuts last year, and I’m fairly sure that connections are trying to pick up a couple of easy pots at the beginning of his campaign, rather than try to offload him.
All-weather form is 21321321 so he ought to come 3rd
Giving 6 lbs to Halfway’s horse is a bit of a fly in the ointment.
I also like Secret Witness, who was hampered on his 6f debut last time.
The actual bet I’ve had is a combination trifecta the 3, but I’ve come to my senses since, and for the sake of this thread, the two bets are
Wotashirtfull
Sir Edwin Landseer
Secret Witnessand
Sir Edwin Landseer
Wotashirtfull
Secret Witness1pt Trifecta each.
Hi Gerald,I think you could be spot on with your assumptions ,as he is entered up in another seller at wolver??on the 4/1/10 ,But i will not be backing him as he is 2 short a price and may even go off fav. for a couple of reasons ,which i feel are mega.
"1" racing of his highest ever rating 84
"2" he has h/ced himself joint top with several others who have good resent form recently,making this in theory a tight little h/c .
"3" and because either he has the improvement the trainer thinks to go to war at the real beginning of the a/w season,is a little suss of him to strike first time out here,i really think he is working for the bookies,and he will be telling them when he is REALLY "on" which could be later,the hc er normally drops him if a bad race on first run of a/w run season,they dropped him 5Lbs in 08 for comming 2nd then he won next time,and 09 they dropped him 3Lbs for coming 2nd after a break at epsom /turf change code ??? .so he would be a fool to miss the chance of relieving the grip he is beginning to have a hold on him,its a long long winter."4" Oh and just a little problem ,he has won all his races wearing CHEEK PIECES
THEY ARE OFF
"5" If i was going to dabble i would suggest a smallish LAY
but is what ive said just conjecture.we will c, ive been wrong before,but im still gambling with the bookies money.regardsby the way 4 what it is worth ,
OBE GOLD ""in form c/d good price won off higher hc rating and is ready to strike
SECRET WITNESS 3yo by pinital ,is enough to go on in this race a seller.
i point eachWotashirtfull and Secret Witness both non-runners!
Obviously didn’t like it up’em with Sir Edwin Landseer in the race! However, if it was a self-certificate then they can’t run in the Seller next week.
Well Gymcrack, I did turn on my computer to say that I had forgotten that after the Ayr Gold Cup I wrote that I wouldn’t bet on sprints again until next season.
Now the non-runners have given me a chance to re-assess whether I want to stick to that!
Reading between a few lines I got the impression that the Gold Cup was Cloudy Lane’s main objective this year. Clobbered with too much weight in the National for years and probably not taking to Aintree in the way that a McCain horse is expected to. The fly in the ointment being What a Friend who must surely place in the Gold Cup.
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