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The Big Race Thread

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  • #21402
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    Seen as its the start of the flat season tomorrow, I’m going to try and see if I can keep a record of my bets over the course of the year. These will be mostly at weekends, and will almost certainly be all a good standard of race – no lower grade rhubarb. This may be a little snobbish of me, but I tend to do better financially with better animals.

    RACE ONE

    THE SPRING MILE.

    There has been a little watering in recent days and the going will certainly be on the sharp side of good. A high draw will be essential, and it could pay to be motoring down the first 5 yards of grass from the rail – certainly more so than the middle or far side of the course. There’s been a nice stiff, warm breeze up here in sunny Yorkshire all day, although drizzle is forecast for this evening which may just deaden the ground somewhat. With this in mind, my first bet will be FIRST POST out of stall 21. Winning last summer on good at Ascot over a mile, and runner up on good to firm at Haydock, and he had a nice prep run the other week without winning.

    1pt each way First Post 20/1

    CAMMIDGE TROPHY.

    Again an ability to handle quickish ground is a must, and the likely favourite Sirious Prospect did all his improving on softer stuff last Autumn, beating second favourite Mayson over course and distance on soft. Usually I hate following three year olds in sprints against their elders, but I’m going to against the grain and plump for BANNOCK. He has rock solid form, and more importantly acts on top of the ground – showing high class stuff behind Harbour Watch and Frederick Engels last summer.

    1pt win Bannock 9/1

    THE LINCOLN.

    I’ve lost my write up on this one, which is depressing, so I’ll just post the selections because I can’t be bothered to go through it again.

    1pt win Cocozza 9/1
    1pt win Start Right 12/1

    #398876
    nulty
    Participant
    • Total Posts 443

    Glad to hear someone else fancies First Post. I think he likes a strong pace over a straight mile. Hopefully he will be on song today and get at least some of the place money.

    GL!

    #399210
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    – 5pts.

    What a start. I totally misread the draw bias and the ground – there was simply no advantage in being drawn high. After the Spring Cup I had consigned my Lincoln bets to the bin. I’ve also made a resolution to not back 3 year old sprinters against their elders before at least August.

    NOVICE HURDLE FINALE
    SEDGEFIELD
    CLASS 2

    A decent affair at one of my favourite tracks and featuring the 1-2-3 from a recent Novice Hurdle. McCain’s EBANOUR came out on top LTO and I see no reason why he can’t uphold the form. Previously, he finished behind Balgarry and Nampur, horses who have since run well in stronger company. Top of the ground suits fine.

    2pts win Ebanour @ 3/1 BOG.

    #399291
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    NON RUNNER.

    Its the Djebel tomorrow, and I want to be on ABTAAL’s side for the 2000 Guineas. He’s currently 16s generally and is pretty solid on Betfair. If he wins tomorrow he’ll be single figure odds, and with doubts about Camelot/Power/Nephrite I think he’ll go to Newmarket rather than stay at home. Either way, its worth the punt.

    1pt each way Abtaal @ 16s for the 2000 Guineas.

    #399573
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    From the trainers comments, all may not be lost with Abtaal even though I may be straw clutching a little. Some firms have even trimmed him to 12s.

    SNOWDROP FILLIES LISTED RACE
    KEMPTON

    A tough betting heat, but dominated by Winter Derby 4th Sooraah. This allows me to get a better price on RAASEKHA for the Maktoum/Hanagan partnership – successful on Thursday with another unexposed sort. Successful in an Ascot Maiden last year, and interesting that connections have persevered with this one. Potential improver.

    1pt win Raasekha 6-1.

    CLASS TWO STAYERS HANDICAP
    KEMPTON

    Some recognisable names in this one, albeit some who hold no secrets from the handicapper. De Sousa takes the ride on GULF OF NAPLES for his old boss, and this young stayer could pick up plenty of large pots this year. Should handle the all weather, and is reasonably well drawn.

    1pt win Gulf Of Naples 5-1.

    BETFAIR CHASE SERIES FINAL
    CLASS 2
    HAYDOCK

    Another trappy race for the grade, but my selection is TIGER O TOOLE for who the penny has finally dropped now he’s worked out how to jump a fence. Acts on the ground (which many dont) and has the services of Mr Moloney – who I really rate. 11-6 shouldn’t be enough of a burden and hopefully he should be winning this.

    2pt win Tiger O Toole 11-2

    #399871
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    -10pts

    Thought I had a sniff with Gulf Of Naples, but he just ran around a little when the rail dissapeared. The first two should go on to better things though, they pulled miles clear.

    Raasekha finished a staying on 4th and I’ll be keeping an eye on her through the season. But Tiger O Toole was terrible, never put in the race.

    I’m looking forward to Aintree this week, see if a change of code can bring a change of result!

    AINTREE BOWL
    GRADE ONE

    Looks a tricky one, but it may yet cut up. Medermit may go for the Melling if the ground turns up soft, Riverside Theatre generally needs a bigger gap between races. Nacarat is surely not up to Grade One winning level, and Hunt Ball is surely not a Grade One animal – if he is, then I take my hat off to connections. This leaves Burton Port, What A Friend and Diamond Harry. At the prices, I’ll be on WHAT A FRIEND. Its the first time that Ruby is on him over fences since winning this two years ago. Diamond Harry will like the forecast ground, but I can’t bring myself to back the softy. Burton Port a danger, but at the prices I’m willing to take a chance – there wasn’t too much between them at Newbury.

    1pt win What A Friend @ 12/1 with Stan James.

    #399892
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    PONTEFRACT
    CLASS 2 HANDICAP

    I’ll give another chance to REVE DE NUIT in this one. Badly drawn in the Spring Mile (in hindsight!), but still showed up for a long way before those drawn low fought out the finish. Just be a tasty price today too, against a number of horses who have not yet run this season, so may lack for fitness.

    1pt each way Reve De Nuit @ 33/1 with Bet365

    #399980
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    -12pts.

    Continuing the cracking form.

    NOTTINGHAM
    CONDITIONS STAKES

    DINKUM DIAMOND is the bet here on seasonal reappearance. Although he has to give weight away, his record over 5f is fantastic, whereas main rival Triple Aspect has shown its best form over 6f. A bit of cut in the ground won’t inconvenience DD as much as Triple Aspect either.

    2pts win Dinkum Diamond @ 2/1.

    FURTHER FLIGHT LISTED STAKES

    The trip could be a little too far for Dandino, as he’s not really seen out anything further than 1m4f in the past – especially on softer ground, and the same applies to Zuider Zee who has never won this far either. Blue Bajan is surely too long in the tooth, and Eternal Heart needs to improve massive. This leaves me with PARLOUR GAMES, who won his only attempt at 1m6f last season under Frankie (the only time he has ridden him) and looks sure to improve this season. Al Zarooni usually has his horses ready to go first time out and this one appreciates a bit of give too.

    1pt win Parlour Games @ 5/1.

    #400042
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    -15 pts.

    Utterly pathetic. I hope someone is laying these. Dinkum Diamond ran like a crab and Parlour Games not much better, briefly getting me excited three out before fading. Solar Sky might be the one to take from the race, at least when upped to 2 miles.

    LIVERPOOL HURDLE

    This race is a formality for the Champ and we’re playing for two places. I’ve looked at betting without Big Bucks, and there isnt much value with Smad Place around the evens mark. I’d prefer to back something each way in this, after all, he can’t win forever, can he…? Smad Place doesn’t appeal at 6s, and neither do the 3 rags. That leaves Tidal Bay, Poungach and Restless Harry. I’ve made a promise to myself never to back Tidal Bay ever again, and Poungach is just killing time before going novice chasing. With the recent rain, I’ll be backing RESTLESS HARRY each way, with the hope that they just ride him for a place, and he should have too much class for the others.

    1pt each way Restless Harry @ 25/1.

    ANNIVERSARY HURDLE

    I hated the Triumph and I don’t think the form will stand up. Dodging Bullets as least exposed, would be the one to take from that race. Earlier on this year, I got sucked into the HINTERLAND hype, and got my fingers burnt in the Triumph, but much like Kingfisher, I’m not one to lose faith in a horse that quickly. He’s had a nice break and should arrive fresh and
    ready to go. Noel Fehily rides.

    1pt win Hinterland @ 10/1.

    FOXHUNTERS

    Some grand old stagers on show here, but, Gwanako aside, they are surely a little long in the tooth. Gwanako fell at The Chair previously too, so at the prices I wouldn’t be siding with him. ROULEZ COOL is the selection, as he has bypassed the National in favour of this, and at age 9, has young enough legs to win.

    1pt win Roulez Cool @ 16/1

    RED RUM CHASE

    The Grand Annual mark 2. I backed Du Boitron and Kumbeshwar in that, and I’m loathed to oppose both as they ran well. In a smaller field than at Cheltenham, Kid Cassidy may be seen in a better light too. I hate horses carrying a lot of weight in handicaps, so the top two are out. This leaves me with FREE WORLD, who was tanking along at the Festvial, and I just can’t dessert KUMBESHWAR. Eff it, I’ll back them both.

    1pt win Kumbeshwar @ 7/1
    1pt win Free World @ 11/1

    #400044
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    The forum is playing up now, so in the last its:

    1pt Houblon Des Obeaux @ 16/1
    1pt Timesawastin @ 20/1

    No bet in the Al Ferof race, unless the fav drifts to a working mans price.

    #400100
    GDC
    Member
    • Total Posts 942

    Blunkett: Good luck, in the Anniversary Hurdle i think you have gone for the wrong Nicholls horse and totally disagree with your comment re the Triumph!

    Take a look at a re-run and just watch Ruby aboard Pearl Swan, struggling out the back to keep him interested, the penny dropped and he flew between the last 2 and was just getting into the race at full pelt when he stumbled after jumping the last! The horse tried his hardest to stay up (a sure sign he had lots left in the tank) and this was my one to follow NTO!

    Sadly, I do not believe 2m around Aintree will suit as he wants further already HOWEVER they go off at such a pace here that he may just have the race run to suit :D

    May the best Nicholls horse ridden by Ruby in the race win 8)

    #400120
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    Agreed in part. Pearl Swan looks the potential improver, but surely over further. I can’t have him over 2m round Aintree. I can have him even less now he’s a non runner too!

    As for the form of the Triumph? Maybe so. Maybe I’ve turned into Zarkava! I’m of the view that the bunch finish probably means that there’s no outstanding juvenile and that they’re all much of a muchness.

    That said, it might mean ALL of them are better than Hinterland!

    #400320
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    And so it continues. Roulez Cool ran well along way.

    Today’s racing is just as tough, but he are my bets today.

    NOVICE HURDLE GRADE ONE

    1pt win Theatre Guide @ 16/1

    NOVICE CHASE GRADE TWO

    1pt win Join Together @ 5/1

    TOPHAM CHASE GRADE THREE

    1pt win Triangular @ 8/1
    1pt win Nikola @ 25/1

    NOVICE HURDLE GRADE ONE

    1pt win Lovcen @ 14/1
    1pt win Golden Call @ 16/1

    HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS ONE

    1pt win Hazy Tom @ 20/1
    1pt win Robinson Collonges @ 18/1

    ALSO,

    2pt win Double Darlan/Albertas Run @ 8/1

    EDIT: Forum playing up again, so the reasoning for these pin jobs has been lost in the sands of time forever.

    #401285
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    -19pts.

    Had a few days off following Friday, bit of a break and a few betting free days. Today is the first day of the Craven meeting, and here goes:

    TATTERSALLS MILLIONS SPRINT

    Samitar is the starting point here, but a drop to 6f will surely be against her – especially if this is a warm up for the Guineas. She got turned over last year in a similar race, and I’m hoping one or two will have too much speed for her – although the rain will help her cause. I’ll be playing BALTY BOYS. One place behind Samitar in the aformentioned sales race, and improved to finish 4th in the Middle Park. 6f hopefully will be bang on.

    1pt win Balty Boys @ 6/1.

    NELL GWYN

    Looks a decent renewal – certainly a bigger field than usual and plenty have chances. Goldolphin have a strong hand and I prefer Minidress to Pimpernel, but hopefully SUNDAY TIMES can do them both. Short headed in the Cheveley Park over the course, and despite running flat in her last start backend behind Pimpernel, I hope she can improve here.

    1pt win Sunday Times @ 8/1

    #401504
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    -21 Points.

    2000 GUINEAS

    With Abtaal already backed, I’m also adding POWER to the list. Finished in front of Trumpet Major who hosed in yesterday and was AOB’s number one horse in the top 2 year old races last season, following a similar path to Henrythenavigator and Gorgeous George who both won this first time out. Yes he’s had a ‘minor setback’ over the winter, but he’s trading pretty strongly on Betfair – suggesting he’ll line up.

    1pt win Power @ 14/1

    1000 GUINEAS

    Nothing has emerged from the Nell Gwyn and I don’t think the Fred Darling will throw up a good un either (can’t see Best Terms staying a mile). With this in mind, I notice that last yeas Cheveley Park winner is 20/1!! LIGHTENING PEARL won the race that is traditionally a strong pointer to the 1000 and at the prices I would much rather be on her side than any of the Godolphin horses at the prices and without a prep run. Although I might have a saver on Discourse on the day. Obviously Maybe is a danger, but at the prices, its a no brainer for me.

    1pt win Lightening Pearl @ 20/1

    #402112
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    – 23 points.

    WAR OF ATTRITION NOVICE HURDLE.

    And it will be on the ground. SOUS LES CIEUX stayed on late in the Neptune behind Simonsig and has won and finished placed on soft and heavy. I think he’s a cracking bet.

    2pts win Sous Les Cieux @ 3/1.

    #402809
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    – 25 points.

    I’ve backed THIMAAR in the Sagaro Stakes at Kempton today. Won over the course LTO beating Gulf Of Naples who’s gone in again since. Solar Sky is the danger, as I thought he ran a race full of promise in the Further Flight.

    2pts with Thimaar @ 5/2.

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