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Dave, well the first 2 have won nicely. :)
You say stop after 2 winners but should we be greedy and put half a point on race 3?
Might as well, Rex. I can’t see any difference between race 3 today and race 1 tomorrow.
Gone tits up now. Got out after R13 (Kostar) after 3 successive 2nds. Kept £1.77 profit. Should have got out afte the 2 wins proposed.
At the moment Urban Dave is winning but we are on a bank busting run if you ignore the stop at the 2nd winner rule. I am aware that probability wise though this does’t make sense.
Artemis Posted on 12:34 pm on Dec. 13, 2004
<br>I’m afraid the stats/maths show that the chances of losing the bank are 1in 42 every time you start out to try to back just one winner <br>
A very important point IMO, 1 in 42 every bet not every day. Spot on with the calcs Artemis.
Still a good bit of fun though … :biggrin:
Don’t worry about my enthusiasm Arty, I completely understand where you’re coming from. If you want sense and reason, they can be found on my other thread. ;) ;) ÂÂÂ
Rex – Artemis is right about race 3 being no different to race 1 tomorrow. Statistically, mathematically, theoretically or whateverly his comments about one race being as good as another are 100% correct. However, the stop after two winners idea is based on two things:
1) Quit while you’re ahead. A nice phrase because sometimes it gives me most of the afternoon off (like today). I appreciate that Artemis can now say, "Why not stop after the first winner then Dave?" which leads me on to point number two;
2) Trends. Believe it or not I have done some research into the past performance of this system. ;)  The trend seemed to be that with at least three meetings available there would be at least two winners every day. Sometimes there were more and occasionally there was just one. Keeping the number at two would allow me (far more often than not) to split my betting into separate days leaving me free to do my sums and come back the following day afresh and ready for the next round.
Going for three a day it was far less common to finish the day ahead, which lets you see an awful lot more losers and gets you frustrated with the system. Going for two seemed to work OK, going for one was fine but if two worked OK then that would make the bank grow faster.
This system is not based on statistics, which means that anyone can argue that statistically this will fail – and I can’t argue with them at all, because statistically they will always be right. This system is purely based on something I noticed whilst browsing through some old copies of the paper one day. ÂÂÂ
I expect this to fail every day, because for so long I have been so careful with my betting that the word gamble has lost it’s meaning. It’s part of my psyche that the stats tell me there’s a losing run just around the corner, so I’m always running scared.
Wary is good – scared is not.
Life’s a gamble – there’s always a bus just around the next corner. Yes, I stop, look and listen but I still cross the road. :)
Stop at a Winner is a sensible strategy.
Because stastically speaking you will have shorter losing runs, although your strike rate and profitablity will be unchaged.
This is because you will have fewer bets.
Monday’s results:
Stake = £2.70
W2.7 @ 9/2 = +£12.15
W2.7 @ 5/1 = +£13.50
Total = +£25.65 <br>Bank = £574.85
Tuesday’s selections:
Folkestone <br>12.30 Lustral Du Seuil <br>1.00 Fille D’Honfleur <br>1.30 Katiki <br>2.00 Fletcher <br>2.30 Nagano <br>3.00 Kety Star <br>3.30 Versus
Wolverhampton <br>1.10 Beveller <br>1.40 Latin Express <br>2.10 Greenwich Meantime <br>3.10 Desert Opal <br>3.40 Rafters Music <br>4.10 Mount Hillaby
Southwell <br>11.50 Kylkenny <br>12.20 Bridgewater Boys <br>12.50 Trickstep <br>1.20 Diction <br>1.50 Tiffin Deano <br>2.20 Romany Nights <br>2.50 Peak Park <br>3.20 Queen Of Night
Starting stake = £2.90
Feet up after the 12.30 with a 3/1 and a 7/2 in the bag – aaah this is the life!!
:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
Yes, it’s all good at the moment Snowy. :)
Tuesday’s results:
W2.9 @ 3/1 = +£8.70
L2.9, W5.8 @ 7/2 = 20.3 – 2.9 = +£17.40
Total = +£26.10 <br>Bank = £600.95
Wednesday’s selections:
Hexham <br>12.20 Ground Breaker <br>12.50 Harry Hooly <br>1.20 Narciso <br>1.50 Stamparland Hill <br>2.20 Alam <br>2.50 Lord Attica <br>3.20 Dalblair
Bangor <br>12.40 Cordila <br>1.10 Ankles Back <br>1.40 Auburn Spirit <br>2.10 Bramlynn Brook <br>2.40 Over The Blues <br>3.10 Count Fosco <br>3.40 Jack’s Lad
Lingfield <br>12.00 American Embassy <br>12.30 Summerise <br>1.00 Bertocelli <br>1.30 Sweetwater <br>2.00 Zonnebeke <br>2.30 Hagley Park <br>3.00 Piquet <br>3.30 Bretton
Starting stake = £3.00
Will post Wolves sels later if required.
Not so good yesterday though … :( ÂÂÂ
L3, L6, W9 @ 3/1 = 27 – 9 = +£18.00
L3, L6, L9, L12, L15, L18, L21, L24, L27, L30, W32 @ 7/4 = <br>56 – 156 = -£100.00
Total = -£82.00 <br>Bank = £518.95
Thursday’s selections:
Exeter <br>12.40 Gold Medallist <br>1.10 Sylvan Shack <br>1.40 Twisted Logic <br>2.10 Kentford Grebe <br>2.40 Andreas <br>3.10 Seeador
Catterick <br>12.20 Stan <br>12.50 Six Pack <br>1.20 Basilea Star <br>1.50 Just Sooty <br>2.20 Kings Square <br>2.50 Daguyda <br>3.20 Byland
Southwell <br>12.00 Sorbiesharry <br>12.30 Extra Mark <br>1.00 Ali Bruce <br>1.30 Air Mail <br>2.00 Gifted Lass <br>2.30 Dance World <br>3.00 Dalpe <br>3.30 Off Beat
Starting stake = £2.60
(Edited by Urban Dave at 11:01 am on Dec. 16, 2004)
Hi Dave,
Yesterday’s winning bet should be a stake of 33 not 32 as stated. wont make a tremendous difference but…………
Thanks Snowy, I really must learn my three times table.
That means the bank should have been £520.70.
Thursday’s results:
L2.6, W5.2 @ 11/4 = 14.3 – 2.6 = +£11.70
L2.6, W5.2 @ 7/4 = 9.1 – 2.6 = +£6.50
Total = +£18.20 <br>Bank = £537.15
Friday’s selections:
Windsor <br>1.00 Darkness <br>2.05 Lorient Express <br>2.40 Kandjar D’allier <br>3.40 McBain
Uttoxeter <br>12.20 Soleil D’hiver <br>12.50 Stoop To Conquer <br>1.55 Dungarvans Choice <br>2.30 Hazeljack <br>3.00 Call Oscar <br>3.30 Harem Scarem
Wolverhampton <br>1.10 Bijou Dan <br>1.40 Neil’s Legacy <br>2.15 Tayif <br>2.50 Dragon Slayer <br>3.20 Hello It’s Me <br>3.50 Red Skelton <br>4.20 Garhoud <br>4.50 Larad
Starting stake = £2.70
Keep ’em coming Dave! :cool:
Stoop To Conquer a NR today mate.
(Edited by snowman at 7:00 pm on Dec. 17, 2004)
Friday’s results:
L2.7, n/r, L5.4, L8.1, L10.8, W13.5 @ 10/3 = 45 – 27 = +£18.00
W2.7 @ 15/8 = +£5.06
Total = +£23.06 <br>Bank = £560.21
Saturday’s selections:
Lingfield <br>11.30 Arry Dash <br>12.00 Tag Team <br>12.30 Chimali <br>1.05 Union Jack Jackson <br>1.35 Treat Me Wild <br>2.05 Lygeton Lad <br>2.40 Moayed
Newcastle <br>12.10 Troll <br>12.40 King Harald <br>1.15 Terlan <br>2.20 Sharp Belline <br>2.50 The Nomad <br>3.20 Stil Going On
Haydock <br>12.35 Progressive <br>1.10 The Extra Man <br>1.40 Lough Derg <br>2.10 Bee An Bee <br>3.15 Rico Hombre
Windsor <br>12.50 Longterm <br>1.25 Hasty Prince <br>1.55 Tresor De Mai <br>2.25 Rule Supreme <br>3.00 Batswing <br>3.35 Karanja
Warwick <br>12.25 My Retreat <br>1.00 Arrayou <br>1.30 Woodlands Genpower <br>2.05 Sonevafushi <br>2.35 The Last Mohican <br>3.05 Royal Atalza <br>3.40 It’s Rumoured
Starting stake = £2.80
Possible change for the next Saturday’s racing where we will be after one winner less than the amount of meetings – e.g. today there are five meetings so we would be after four winners. Sticking with just the two for today though. Have fun! :biggrin:
Saturday’s results:
L2.8, L5.6, L8.4, L11.2, L14, L16.8, L19.6, L22.4, L25.2, L28, L30.8, L33.6, L36.4, W39.2 @ 11/8 = 53.9 – 254.8 = -£200.90
L2.8, n/r, L5.6, W9.8* @ 2/1 = 19.6 and W9.8* @ 5/1 = 68.6 – 8.4 = +£60.20
Two races both had starting times of 2.05 so I added the next two stakes together and split the total between both races.
Total = -£140.70 <br>Bank = £419.51
Amazingly there’s still more than the original £400 left! :o
Monday’s selections:
Lingfield <br>12.10 Labelled With Love <br>12.40 Baytown Flyer <br>1.10 Ben Bacchus <br>1.40 Tasneef <br>2.40 Piquet <br>3.10 Rathmullen <br>3.40 Lucius Verrus
Wolverhampton <br>1.00 Dizzy Future <br>1.30 Adalar <br>2.00 Urban Calm <br>2.30 Turn On The Style <br>3.00 Mandarin Spirit <br>3.30 Stoic Leader <br>4.00 Slip Catch <br>4.30 Indalo Grey
Fakenham <br>12.20 Amnesty <br>12.50 Capitana <br>1.50 Knightsbridge King <br>2.20 Mondul <br>2.50 Meggie’s Lad <br>3.20 Reap
Starting stake = £2.10
If Fakenham gets abandoned (it’s still -1 down here in Norfolk) then just one winner will be the target for the day.
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