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In an effort to occupy my so called mind, I thought it would be a laugh to see if/how £400 can be turned into £10,000.
Here’s the method:
1) Lots of reasonably priced selections per day;
2) STOP betting for the day when TWO of the selections have won;
3) Use 1/2%, 1%, 1 1/2%, 2%, 2 1/2 %, 3%, etc staking.
Revert back to 1/2% after each winner and recalculate stakes at the beginning of each day to the nearest 10p.
Here are the first day’s selections:
Huntingdon <br>12.30 Majlis <br>1.00 Lalagune <br>1.30 Buck Whaley <br>2.00 Just Jolly <br>2.30 Kohinor <br>3.00 Wild Power <br>3.30 Alright Now M’lad
Taunton <br>12.50 Nuit Sombre <br>1.20 Imperial Rocket <br>1.50 Lough Rynn <br>2.20 Victory Gunner <br>2.50 Bill Owen
Ludlow <br>12.40 Ambersong <br>1.10 Robber Baron <br>2.10 Senna Da Silva <br>2.40 Prince Highlight <br>3.10 The Hairy Lemon <br>3.40 Fizzywiz
Use the selections in time order – H12.30, L12.40, T12.50, etc. instead of keeping the meetings separate.
Today’s starting stake will be £2.
And one final rule – have fun! :biggrin:
This looks like good fun Dave, I’m going to enjoy watching this. Your staking plan is a bit of a demon, I like that too.
I reckon you could do this … :biggrin:
Good luck Dave.
We will all expect a drink once your reach that 10,000.00.
Regards- Matron<br>:cool:
Best of luck, Dave
Are you sure it’s not a way to turn £10,000 into £400? (Only a joke). Looks great fun, and I will watch your progress with interest.
Hey Dave,
We sometimes get a bit too serious with our efforts to beat the bookies by a shilling or two, this looks like it’s gonna be fun – very best of luck!
PS Where’s the TRF (Systems Workshop ) bash if this comes off? :biggrin:
Thanks for the good wishes guys – it looks like I’ll have to start doing this with real money!
Mind you with a losing run of 11 yesterday I would have been starting to sh*t myself somewhat, especially if the stakes were at 1% instead of 1/2% – having bet half the bank after 10 losing bets would not be good for my health.
I tell you what, if this makes it to £2000 (5 x starting bank) then I’ll start doing this for real, how about that? I may stick to just one winner per day though – an thoughts?
Anyway, yesterday’s results look like this:
L2, W4@7/2 = 14-2 = +12
L2, L4, L6, L8, L10, L12, L14, L16, L18, L20, L22, W 24@15/2 = 180-132 = +£48
Yesterday’s total = +£60 <br>Bank = £460
Friday’s selections:
Cheltenham <br>12.00 Maljimar <br>12.35 Out The Black <br>1.10 Team Tassel <br>1.45 French Executive <br>2.20 King Revo <br>2.55 Joly Bey <br>3.30 You’re Special
Doncaster <br>1.00 Down The Stretch <br>1.35 Blaise Wood <br>2.45 Kind Sir <br>3.20 Dargaville
Wolverhampton <br>12.50 Hammer Of THe Gods <br>1.25 Rancho Cucamonga <br>1.55 Bluff <br>2.30 City Zone <br>3.05 Kali <br>3.40 Accendere <br>4.10 Creskeld <br>4.40 King Flyer
Starting stake = £2.30
Sorry these are a bit late folks but I think the site was down this morning.
Woo Hoo!!
We’re on the way – another winning day Dave. :biggrin:
Err am I right in thinking that if we dont get a winner on 1 day we could be potless? :o
I guess that’s why they call this gambling Snowy – scare yourself silly every day just in the pursuit of a few thousand pounds … what was I thinking? … oh, I know …
SHOW ME THE MONEY! ;)
Yesterday’s results:
L2.3, L4.6, L6.9, L9.2, L11.5, L13.8, L16.1, L18.4, L20.7, W23@9/2 = 103.5 – 103.5 = +/-£0
W2.3@8/1 = +£18.40
Yesterday’s toal = +£18.40 <br>Bank = £478.40
Yes, that’s right folks – nine losing bets just to get back where we started … and that’s if we don’t take into account any commission. Mind you the prices available on the exchanges should more than make up for any fees as I’m using the SP’s to make things back-checkable here.
Saturdays selections:
Southwell <br>11.30 Stellite <br>12.00 Keepers Knight <br>12.30 Fasylitaor <br>1.05 Mossmann Gorge <br>1.40 Boris The Spider <br>2.10 Bond Moonlight <br>2.45 Up Tempo <br>3.20 Headland
Lingfield <br>12.10 Earl’s Kitchen <br>12.45 Glanamana <br>1.20 Ken Scott <br>1.55 Tribal Venture <br>2.30 New Entic <br>3.05 Jalpreuil Malta
Cheltenham <br>12.55 Bonus Bridge <br>1.30 Trouble At Bay <br>2.05 Control Man <br>2.40 Thisthatandtother <br>3.15 Inglis Drever <br>3.45 Brewster
Doncaster <br>12.40 Darkshape <br>1.45 Once Seen <br>2.20 Kelrev <br>2.55 Personal Assurance <br>3.30 Mobasher
Starting stake = £2.40
If there aren’t two winners in that lot I’ll put tonight’s Wolverhampton selections up later.
Thanks Kersly – I think I’ll need some of that luck before too long!
Another winning day already so I’ll update the results/bank as Monday morning is bound to be as hectic as usual.
Saturday’s results:
L2.4, L4.8, L7.2, L9.6, L12, L14.4, W16.8@13/2 = 109.2 – 50.4 = +£58.80
n/r, W2.4@5/1 = +£12
Saturday’s total = +£70.80 <br>Bank = £549.20
Gambling? I was recommended to this thread by my stockbroker who assured me this was a blue chip investment!
Dave, I’ve been mulling over this system for a few days because it didn’t seem right when I first looked at it. Your experiences on the first day were no suprise when I gave it some thought. I hate to dampen anyone’s enthusiasm, but systems that rely on increasing stakes won’t work unless you are a brilliant tipster. The mathematics are working against you and in favour of our old adversary, the bookmaker.
On my reckoning, if you are increasing stakes by 0.5 per cent, a losing run of 20 will break the bank. If it was 1%, a losing run of 14 would do it.
At average odds of 5/1 ( a probabilty of 0.167), there is a 2.4% chance of hitting such a losing run. So, on average for every 42 times you start the system, you can expect to lose your bank once. Reducing the average odds extends this period. At 4/1 (0.20), it’s a 1.1 % chance ( about 1 in 90), and at 3/1 it’s about 1 in 300. The end result is always the same. The only way to beat it is to keep your average odds very low and you may live long enough to avoid losing your bank, but if you pass the system on to your descendants they are almost certain to lose it.
If you want some evidence of the frequency of long losing runs, have a look at the RP tipster’s challenge. There are several tipsters with LLRs into the teens out of only 30 or so naps. The worst one, ironically enough, is now up to 19, and that is down to Mitch Lewis who won the RP tipster’s challenge out of thousands of entrants.
Hi Dave.
This will brighten up the thread leading to Christmas, good luck.
Artemis.
There is no money involved with this as Dave has already stated, and I think the main reason behind it all was……HAVE FUN!!!
Your figures though are as usual probably spot on.
Yes. of course, have fun. I just didn’t want anyone thinking there might be easy money around.
You will get no humbug from me, especially at this time of year.:)
Anyone looking to use this thread as a means of providing them with the "Holy Grail" would do well to heed Artemis’ wise words. The stats will always balance out in the end – so one does stand a chance of losing the whole bank of £400.
However, if one can quote the losing frequency, then the chances of winning can also be explored – as Artemis has also done. If his stats are correct and the bank can be expected to be lost once every 42 times the system is used, then there is also a 97.6% chance that the losing run will not occur.
What it all boils down to is this – if I’m turning £400 into £10,000 then I expect the odds to be against me in the long run. It will not be easy. It will test my nerve. It will be a rollercoaster … but if I pull it off once every five attempts, then that is still £8,000 profit.
I know I was only joking when I ribbed Snowman about this being gambling, but that’s exactly what this is – a gamble. My dictionary describes a gamble as a risky act or venture.
So, if this looks like working, and you’re thinking about taking the plunge yourself with real cash, please make sure it’s not your last £400 or the money for the kid’s Christmas presents or money that will leave you and the missus queueing for free soup on a cold January morning outside the local Salvation Army HQ.
Rant over, here are today’s selections:
Plumpton <br>12.50 Nation State <br>1.50 Megapac <br>2.20 Motcombe <br>2.50 Acertack <br>3.20 Tomasino
Towcester <br>12.30 Good Judgement <br>1.00 Alfa Sunrise <br>1.30 Fire Ranger <br>3.00 Dun Locha Castle <br>3.30 Vertical Bloom
Wolverhampton <br>1.10 Depressed <br>1.40 Azuree <br>2.10 Explosive Fox <br>2.40 Hurricane Coast <br>3.10 Kostar <br>3.40 Armatore <br>4.10 Ali Deo <br>4.40 Karaoke
Hi Dave,
I’m afraid the stats/maths show that the chances of losing the bank are 1in 42 every time you start out to try to back just one winner.So if you have two goes every day, thats just 21 days betting during which you will probably have lost your bank. On average, someone tring this system for two winners a day at fair odds(5/1), can expect to last about 11 days before hitting that dreaded losing run of 20. I haven’t worked this out (it can be calculated), but I would guess that you could go up to about 60 days before you would be about 95% certain of losing your bank. You could also lose it in the first few days.
Once again, Dave, I’m not trying to curb your enthusiasm or trying to be clever. I love to tinker around with these systems which sometimes appear to offer a reasonable chance of building up a nice profit. I can only repeat: have fun, but do not put your trust or your hard earned cash in a system that requires you to increase stakes following a loser.
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