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Ten grand or bust

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  • #1557
    Urban DaveUrban Dave
    Member
    • Total Posts 629

    In an effort to occupy my so called mind, I thought it would be a laugh to see if/how £400 can be turned into £10,000.

    Here’s the method:

    1) Lots of reasonably priced selections per day;

    2) STOP betting for the day when TWO of the selections have won;

    3) Use 1/2%, 1%, 1 1/2%, 2%, 2 1/2 %, 3%, etc staking.

    Revert back to 1/2% after each winner and recalculate stakes at the beginning of each day to the nearest 10p.

    Here are the first day’s selections:

    Huntingdon <br>12.30 Majlis <br>1.00 Lalagune <br>1.30 Buck Whaley <br>2.00 Just Jolly <br>2.30 Kohinor <br>3.00 Wild Power <br>3.30 Alright Now M’lad

    Taunton <br>12.50 Nuit Sombre <br>1.20 Imperial Rocket <br>1.50 Lough Rynn <br>2.20 Victory Gunner <br>2.50 Bill Owen

    Ludlow <br>12.40 Ambersong <br>1.10 Robber Baron <br>2.10 Senna Da Silva <br>2.40 Prince Highlight <br>3.10 The Hairy Lemon <br>3.40 Fizzywiz

    Use the selections in time order – H12.30, L12.40, T12.50, etc. instead of keeping the meetings separate.

    Today’s starting stake will be £2.

    And one final rule – have fun! :biggrin:

    #56124
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    This looks like good fun Dave, I’m going to enjoy watching this. Your staking plan is a bit of a demon, I like that too.

    I reckon you could do this … :biggrin:

    #56126
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5828

    Good luck Dave.

    We will all expect a drink once your reach that 10,000.00.

    Regards- Matron<br>:cool:

    #56127
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Best of luck, Dave

    Are you sure it’s not a way to turn £10,000 into £400? (Only a joke). Looks great fun, and I will watch your progress with interest.

    #56132
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Hey Dave,

    We sometimes get a bit too serious with our efforts to beat the bookies by a shilling or two, this looks like it’s gonna be fun – very best of luck!

    PS Where’s the TRF (Systems Workshop ) bash if this comes off? :biggrin:

    #56133
    Urban DaveUrban Dave
    Member
    • Total Posts 629

    Thanks for the good wishes guys – it looks like I’ll have to start doing this with real money!

    Mind you with a losing run of 11 yesterday I would have been starting to sh*t myself somewhat, especially if the stakes were at 1% instead of 1/2% – having bet half the bank after 10 losing bets would not be good for my health.

    I tell you what, if this makes it to £2000 (5 x starting bank) then I’ll start doing this for real, how about that? I may stick to just one winner per day though – an thoughts?

    Anyway, yesterday’s results look like this:

    L2, W4@7/2 = 14-2 = +12

    L2, L4, L6, L8, L10, L12, L14, L16, L18, L20, L22, W 24@15/2 = 180-132 = +£48

    Yesterday’s total = +£60 <br>Bank = £460

    Friday’s selections:

    Cheltenham <br>12.00 Maljimar <br>12.35 Out The Black <br>1.10 Team Tassel <br>1.45 French Executive <br>2.20 King Revo <br>2.55 Joly Bey <br>3.30 You’re Special

    Doncaster <br>1.00 Down The Stretch <br>1.35 Blaise Wood <br>2.45 Kind Sir <br>3.20 Dargaville

    Wolverhampton <br>12.50 Hammer Of THe Gods <br>1.25 Rancho Cucamonga <br>1.55 Bluff <br>2.30 City Zone <br>3.05 Kali <br>3.40 Accendere <br>4.10 Creskeld <br>4.40 King Flyer

    Starting stake = £2.30

    Sorry these are a bit late folks but I think the site was down this morning.

    #56134
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Woo Hoo!!

    We’re on the way – another winning day Dave. :biggrin:

    Err am I right in thinking that if we dont get a winner on 1 day we could be potless? :o

    #56135
    Urban DaveUrban Dave
    Member
    • Total Posts 629

    I guess that’s why they call this gambling Snowy – scare yourself silly every day just in the pursuit of a few thousand pounds … what was I thinking? … oh, I know …

    SHOW ME THE MONEY! ;)

    Yesterday’s results:

    L2.3, L4.6, L6.9, L9.2, L11.5, L13.8, L16.1, L18.4, L20.7, W23@9/2 = 103.5 – 103.5 = +/-£0

    W2.3@8/1 = +£18.40

    Yesterday’s toal = +£18.40 <br>Bank = £478.40

    Yes, that’s right folks – nine losing bets just to get back where we started … and that’s if we don’t take into account any commission. Mind you the prices available on the exchanges should more than make up for any fees as I’m using the SP’s to make things back-checkable here.

    Saturdays selections:

    Southwell <br>11.30 Stellite <br>12.00 Keepers Knight <br>12.30 Fasylitaor <br>1.05 Mossmann Gorge <br>1.40 Boris The Spider <br>2.10 Bond Moonlight <br>2.45 Up Tempo <br>3.20 Headland

    Lingfield <br>12.10 Earl’s Kitchen <br>12.45 Glanamana <br>1.20 Ken Scott <br>1.55 Tribal Venture <br>2.30 New Entic <br>3.05 Jalpreuil Malta

    Cheltenham <br>12.55 Bonus Bridge <br>1.30 Trouble At Bay <br>2.05 Control Man <br>2.40 Thisthatandtother <br>3.15 Inglis Drever <br>3.45 Brewster

    Doncaster <br>12.40 Darkshape <br>1.45 Once Seen <br>2.20 Kelrev <br>2.55 Personal Assurance <br>3.30 Mobasher

    Starting stake = £2.40

    If there aren’t two winners in that lot I’ll put tonight’s Wolverhampton selections up later.

    #56136
    kersly
    Member
    • Total Posts 949

    Interesting thread watching to see how it develops.<br>Good Luck<br>kersly

    #56137
    Urban DaveUrban Dave
    Member
    • Total Posts 629

    Thanks Kersly – I think I’ll need some of that luck before too long!

    Another winning day already so I’ll update the results/bank as Monday morning is bound to be as hectic as usual.

    Saturday’s results:

    L2.4, L4.8, L7.2, L9.6, L12, L14.4, W16.8@13/2 = 109.2 – 50.4 = +£58.80

    n/r, W2.4@5/1 = +£12

    Saturday’s total = +£70.80 <br>Bank = £549.20

    #56138
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    This is great … :biggrin:

    #56139
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Gambling? I was recommended to this thread by my stockbroker who assured me this was a blue chip investment!

    #56140
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Dave, I’ve been mulling over this system for a few days because it didn’t seem right when I first looked at it. Your experiences on the first day were no suprise when I gave it some thought. I hate to dampen anyone’s enthusiasm, but systems that rely on increasing stakes won’t work unless you are a brilliant tipster. The mathematics are working against you and in favour of our old adversary, the bookmaker.

    On my reckoning, if you are increasing stakes by 0.5 per cent, a losing run of 20 will break the bank. If it was 1%, a losing run of 14 would do it.

    At average odds of 5/1 ( a probabilty of 0.167), there is a 2.4% chance of hitting such a losing run. So, on average for every 42 times you start the system, you can expect to lose your bank once. Reducing the average odds extends this period. At 4/1 (0.20), it’s a 1.1 % chance ( about 1 in 90), and at 3/1 it’s about 1 in 300. The end result is always the same. The only way to beat it is to keep your average odds very low and you may live long enough to avoid losing your bank, but if you pass the system on to your descendants they are almost certain to lose it.

    If you want some evidence of the frequency of long losing runs, have a look at the RP tipster’s challenge. There are several tipsters with LLRs into the teens out of only 30 or so naps. The worst one, ironically enough, is now up to 19, and that is down to Mitch Lewis who won the RP tipster’s challenge out of thousands of entrants.

    #56141
    Robotica
    Member
    • Total Posts 516

    Hi Dave.

    This will brighten up the thread leading to Christmas, good luck.

    Artemis.

    There is no money involved with this as Dave has already stated, and I think the main reason behind it all was……HAVE FUN!!!

    Your figures though are as usual probably spot on.

    #56142
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Yes. of course, have fun. I just didn’t want anyone thinking there might be easy money around.

    You will get no humbug from me, especially at this time of year.:)

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