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RIP VAN WINKLE for me, improving with every race, and I expect Murtagh to ride him over Fame and Glory and Cape Blanco.
I think Twice Over will run a massive race and hopefully get his head in front against a proper G1 opponent in Rip Van Winkle.
As long as it’s good ground, and he’s allowed to run past beaten horses it should make it a cracking spectacle for the neutral against his old rival!!
A line through Steinbeck and Beethoven suggests there is very little between Famous Name and Rip Van Winkle…and therefore Twice Over.
It looks between the top three as this years three year olds continue to fail in middle distance Group races against older horse, one win all season and that by a maiden in a poor race Group 3 in Ireland, fist three home were 3-Y-Olds so that doen’t tell us anything.
Value therefor has to be EW FAMOUS NAME @ 25-1.No idea why Cape Blanco runs, VERY odd but it looks like Joshua Tree is the AOB Leger horse, as I suspected after his season debut
Cape Blanco’s Dante win was most impressive, he will be carrying my money tomorrow.
JohnJ
Cape Blanco’s Dante win was most impressive, he will be carrying my money tomorrow.
JohnJ
Cape Blanco did look good kicking sand in the faces of his contemporaries but the older horses are a class apart, this seasons Group results show us that I no uncertain manner.
Check this form line…………….
Beethoven has twice finished approx 4 ½ lengths behind Canford Cliffs
Steinbeck has finished ½ a length behind Beethoven and has twice been behind Canford Cliffs beaten 5 length and 6 lengths respectively, all these races were run at level weights which suggest the form is reliable, and that Beethoven is a length or so superior to Steinbeck.
Lets say for arguments sake that Canford Cliffs and Rip Van Winkle are virtually each others equal at weight for age on their previous meeting, I’d favour RVW if they met again but it must be close, so they are both approx 6 lengths better then Steinbeck at weight for age
Now I’d advise any doubters to watch the way Famous Name gives a stone (double the weight for age allowance) and a 2 ½ length beating to Steinbeck, it could have been 6 or 8 lengths if Pat Smullen had got the least bit serious, as he won virtually on the bridle.
These form lines favour Famous Name slightly but even factoring in a few pounds improvement for Rip Van Winkle there can’t be much more than a fag paper between them yet one is odds on, the other 25-1…………am I missing something here?I won’t quote you as yours is the previous post Chelters. Famous Name won’t like the ground, he prefers soft and is priced accordingly.
Cape Blanco’s trip is 10f, I think he is value at the price, and still believe he has more to show.
John.
Ditto JohnJ I won’t quote you as yours is the previous post
There wasn’t that much give in the ground at Leopardstown last time out and he’s won on good to firm twice this season, not so impressively I’d admit. Bottom line, Dermot Weld looks after his horses, gives them plenty of time to mature, his best horses peak from 5 to 7 years of age, and he won’t run his good horses on unsuitable ground, he’ll have no hesitation in pulling Famous Name out of the race if the ground is too lively.
I’ve always though Cape Blance looked more like a stayer, I like the horse a lot, I’d go so far as to say he’s the best middle distance 3-Y-Old in The UK or Ireland. I backed him in The Dante, French Derby and Irish Derby (all posted on TRF before the races) but not The KG. I also fancied him or Joshua Tree for The Leger
Surely this is an O’Brien 1-2
I cannot think of another track that will suit Twice Over less than Leopardstown…maybe Catford.
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Cape Blanco’s Dante win was most impressive, he will be carrying my money tomorrow.
JohnJ
Cape Blanco did look good kicking sand in the faces of his contemporaries but the older horses are a class apart, this seasons Group results show us that I no uncertain manner.
Check this form line…………….
Beethoven has twice finished approx 4 ½ lengths behind Canford Cliffs
Steinbeck has finished ½ a length behind Beethoven and has twice been behind Canford Cliffs beaten 5 length and 6 lengths respectively, all these races were run at level weights which suggest the form is reliable, and that Beethoven is a length or so superior to Steinbeck.
Lets say for arguments sake that Canford Cliffs and Rip Van Winkle are virtually each others equal at weight for age on their previous meeting, I’d favour RVW if they met again but it must be close, so they are both approx 6 lengths better then Steinbeck at weight for age
Now I’d advise any doubters to watch the way Famous Name gives a stone (double the weight for age allowance) and a 2 ½ length beating to Steinbeck, it could have been 6 or 8 lengths if Pat Smullen had got the least bit serious, as he won virtually on the bridle.
These form lines favour Famous Name slightly but even factoring in a few pounds improvement for Rip Van Winkle there can’t be much more than a fag paper between them yet one is odds on, the other 25-1…………am I missing something here?He’s not trained by Aiden. That’s all I can think of.
I said I was going to back him in the Haydock thread yesterday and I took the 25’s each-way today.
He’s won over a mile and was 2nd in the French derby so 25/1 for this 5yo is seriously good odds regardless of the outcome.
Hi Cheltenham specialist. The bottom line is that Weld has not the ammunition to compete at the 2,3,or 4 y’old level so he has to wait for lesser races for his well bred but sub classic horses.
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Famous Name’s easy dismissal of Steinbeck in the Meld Stakes last time out reads as well as any form in the book. His two earlier pattern wins this year were on Good to Firm, and his odds are the standout value as of now (still 20-1 but shortening, unfortunately).
Twice Over has now had three hard Group 1 tests in a row, and can’t be expected to run another race of his life. More to come from Rip van Winkle, doubtless; but no surprise to see Famous Name give him a race, and chase him home.
Can’t see past
Rip Van Winkle
for the winner, and think his current price could prove to be gift.
Famous Name would have to run the race of his life to finish in the first two here, and considering his best effort to date came on soft, I can’t see a place bet as being worthwhile to be honest. But with trainer and horse in fine form, I can understand the intertest; it could count for something if a few don’t run to form.
If it wasn’t for a hard race not long ago, I’d of expected Twice Over to give Rip the most to think about, but he has had it tough, and it’d be more than a fantastic training performance if he prevailed today.
I’m taking the upped in trip Beethoven to sneak a one-two for Ballydoyle.
A decent horse given far too much rope there. Good performance nonetheless. Well done all that backed it.
Truely awful ride by Johnny Murtagh on Rip Van Winkle. I thought he was lucky and got away with it at York last time but this time Cape Blanco didn’t stop. Rip is not a horse with an explosive turn of foot he is best ridden just off the lead take it up early and power on why Murtagh has suddenly decided he has to be held up out the back I have absolutely no idea.
Cape Blanco is a very good horse but Murtagh gave him way too much rope. Twice Over below his best I think the course was too stiff for him.
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