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Halfway through the meeting and as per usual TAPK has had a couple of fantastic long range Ante-Post wagers come in and one 2nd choice reward at 8/1 in
Vautour
.Day 1 and its
Holywell
backed down from 16/1 and Day 2 its
Whisper
,again backed down from 16/1 both backed on the machine at bigger odds too.Year in year out I prove that identifying horses months in advance and having the unique abilty to select an ideal target for them proves profitable.I dont recall a horse I have backed Ante-Post ever returning a bigger SP! Had
My Tent or Yours
not fluffed his lines he would have been this years Champion hurdle winner at all rates down from 33/1,being a realist I accept that had
The New One
not been hampered he’d have won too!! That fellow finished faster up that hill than anything I have seen.
Trifolium
at 25/1 done me proud as did
Somersby
at 20/1.My biggest error was backing
Faugheen
for the wrong race!
Tomorrow its At Fishers Cross
at 14/1 down and
Boston Bob
at 12/1,the latter owes me and several more on here and Ruby will get him home in the Ryanair,a race that looks ideal.I just hope the ground hasn’t gone against
Taquin de seul
at 12/1 too.
Day 3.
The Jewson
,
I can remember that T*at
Zarkava
joining the party about this time on one of my legendary ‘wagers’ threads and slating
Sir des champs
chances of winning the Jewson! We never did hear from him again after ‘SDS’ shut him up!
This year I expectChampagne Fever
to contest this,I wouldn’t be surprised to see
Defy Logic
taking this in too,along with
Oscar whiskey
and my confident idea of the winner
Taquin de Seul
,we are in for a cracker as per usual.Yet again we have a false fav in
Wonderful charm
at 6/1.I would make ‘Champagne Fever’ fav myself at about 6/1 and have ‘Taquin’ in at 7’s,to see him trade at 12/1 seems to good to be true.
Edit, 12/01/14.Willie Mullins hinting today that
Champagne fever
looks likely to miss the Arkle for a further test of stamina,this race looks ideal.
Edit, 18/01/14. ‘Taquin’ confirms today why he is a proper ‘Jewson’ sort and is cut to 8/1 across the board.Jonjo’s smoke screen of entering him in the Arkle,RSA and this is just a smoke screen fear not!
Edit, 01/02/14
Oscar whiskey
out to 10/1 with hills after a poor round of jumping in a shocking Grade 1 at Sandown today
Selection
Taquin de Seul
e/w 12/1.
3rd day on the trot the legend that is TAPK puts one up way in advance of a target.My banker of the week too…….Enough said!
Apart from the fact AP is a legend too!World hurdle
There are times when Bookmakers beggar belief and this is one of them!
Big Bucks
at 6/4fav for this with Hills is the most ridiculous price of the year.For one bar ‘Crimson Embers’ getting the verdict back in 1986 No 11yo has won the World hurdle and this year will be no different.I personally think
Celestial Halo
as a 10yo will perform better and thats just because 11yo’s dont come back from injury.I rate ‘Big bucks’ as the Lay of the meeting and from an Ante-Post point of view I could lay him now at just bigger than 2/1.I believe
Annie Power
will ultimately go off Fav with old bucksy out to 3/1 on the day,if he even runs that is.Enough of that pessimism though as he’s a champ.
At fishers Cross
was one of my bankers of the festival last year who duly obliged at the generous odds of 6/1 in the ‘Albert Bartlett’ he trades at 14/1 for this from being a 4/1 chance all Summer.Ignore this horses chance at your peril as he’s a certainty to place.I too have always rated
Boston bob
10/1,another serious pretender to the stayers Crown,these 3 are all capable of putting it down to the old timer ‘Big bucks’.Time catches up with us all.
Selection,
At fishers Cross
e/w 14/1,
Boston bob
e/w 10/1.
Another satisfying result and my voice is hoarse again cheering on Jonjo’s charge
More of that
,My 2 lays of the meeting ‘Hurricane’ and ‘Bucksy’ show age catches up with all! Legend of a Trainer!
Can the legend of Ante-Post betting put his 4th consecutive big priced winner up on day 4 of the festival? If I do its got to be
First Lieutenant
. Its been another brilliant week for the King of foresight but hey when you have a mouth as big as mine you have to back it up with big priced winners.Todays supporting card doesn’t excite me but I do have a little Ante-Post lucky 63 that will give me something to cheer on ‘My Tent or Yours’ 5/1,
Vautour
4/1, ‘Shutthefrontdoor’ 10/1
Taquin de Seuil
8/1,
Faugheen
3/1 and
Briar Hill
4/1,notice how I put him in highlighted as a winner.Incidentally I have backed him this morning at 20/1 for next years RSA too!
What have we learned from this years festival?
AP McCoy is physically and mentally tough and has an almost insular outlook to winning.Nobody comes near but we already knew that.
Daryl Jacob is mentally weak,sadly that impacts hugely on confidence and his fragility will be his downfall.
Davy Russell is the 2nd best jockey in the UK.
Jonjo O’Neill trains his horses for Cheltenham for those who still cant see it.
Ruby Walsh is an exceptional judge of a horse,his input in placing Willie Mullins horses is crucial,they know where their horses are going months in advance but are brilliant at telling No-one.
Paul Townend is without doubt the worst Jockey I’ve seen in recent times.
Mick Fitzgerald is very well connected and is a very good judge.
Jim Mcgrath and Graeme Cunningham suffer from narrow vision,they just cant grasp the bigger picture and that reflects in their abilty to tip winners.
Punters on the whole suffer from short memories.
Cheltenham form is crucial,year in year out.
‘Triolo D’lene’ was never a Gold cup horse.
‘Last Instalment’ was never going to win the Gold cup….Some of us knew that too!
Clare Balding is getting a bit too big for her boots.
‘The New One’ was the eyecatcher of the whole meeting.
‘Vaniteux’ looks like an Arkle horse and has that ‘Sprinter Sacre’ look about him.
‘Rule the World’ is a Jewson sort.
‘My Tent or Yours’ is still improving and has more in him.
The starting system is a joke coming out on a sharp turn.
Betfair is the best thing since sliced bread.
Bookmakers shorten horses for No reason other than for personal gain.
90% of punters on course actually lose at the meeting!
‘Ballynagour’ was the most impressive winner of the meeting.
‘Champagne Fever’ is never a 2 miler.
‘Vautour’ could be anything!
‘Faugheen’ aint no chaser!
‘Jezki’ went off at the most generous price of the meeting.
Punters suffer from tunnel vision as do so many professionals,I cant understand the fuss both ‘Hurricane Fly’ and ‘Big Bucks’ got about winning when clearly their age was paramount in affecting their ability.(Both legends of the past now).
‘Luck’ is such a major factor,dont underestimate its impact.
TAPK is a legend……No change there either!Good analysis Gord. Annoyingly I was keeping a record of the ‘Cheltenham form horses’ but ignored LW because his OR and form this season were so low/awful. Had I gone back more seasons I think Cheltenham Festival form would have been even more apparent. It only seemed to work [going back one year] with the championship races, though.
Cheers Moe,the only way you can make this game pay is to study,study and study.It pays to have an understanding of Horsey Politics too,if you get my drift.
Taken 3
the best Movie sequence of recent times is out at Cinemas on Jan 8th……
TAPK (Cheltenham wagers part 4)
starts the same day. This aint just coincidence!
Taken 3
the best Movie sequence of recent times is out at Cinemas on Jan 8th……
TAPK (Cheltenham wagers part 4)
starts the same day. This aint just coincidence!
Ah the latest instalment of ’50 Shades Of Gord’
Look forward to it greatly mate. I’ve got my 100/1 on Holywell
and 14/1 on
L’Ami Serge
to keep me warm while we wait. The countdown is on
The weeks will fly by and the curtain will be raised, the corks will be popped, the ring pulls yanked and the cheers will be deafening – cannot bloody wait
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