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Taking on overrated horses/backing underrated horses

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Viewing 13 posts - 35 through 47 (of 47 total)
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  • #1290956
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    1 point Max Do Brazil 3.00 Sandown saturday 9-1

    #1291161
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    Max do brazil lost

    running total -£8

    #1291246
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    added one point DEDIGOUT stayers hurdle 40-1

    #1291290
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    Eddie Pepperell Lost

    useless choking gobshiite

    6 under at the end of yesterday and joint leader, and now two over?

    absolutely pathetic

    anyway running total -£9 :cry:

    #1292027
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    Yanworth and melon stuffed

    running total -£11

    Help :cry: :cry: :cry:

    #1292185
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    Added 1 point peregrine run 2.50 cheltenham 9-1

    #1292193
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    added: 1 point rory mcilroy arnold palmer invitiational 7-1

    #1292272
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 16034

    Thanks for that Judge, but it’s a very definite no……..I wouldn’t have the balls for that.

    I do like to think “I do ok” though, and always been fairly happy with the winners I’ve put up on here. Very important to talk about the losers though, and I try to always mention the losers, of which there are plenty, and hardly had a “day of the race” bet for the last few weeks for me, as I was just out of form. I don’t bet much during the week anyway, but I do like to pick a few out without money down to test how I’m doing, and everything was getting stuffed, and I hardly had a bet on Saturday/Sunday during February because of this.

    It’s not rude at all, and for someone who puts up a lot of tips, mentions that they do their own books, and also does Race Previews, I think it’s only fair if people ask, though I deliberately never mention it. There’s no hard and fast rule for me, and it really does vary. I’ll give a few examples, mixed with winners and losers, which should hopefully show how I do it.

    In my Gold Cup and Grand National Books I will bet about £300 to £400 across the year, with the hope of making a decent profit, with the intention of having my original fancies, and a few others, all running for me. I do struggle with it mostly, but I enjoy it, and it is a hobby for me now. I have cracked The Gold Cup this year. The 14 have stood their ground for Friday, and the lowest I can win from any horse is £280, and I have 8 of them for 4 figures. That is clockwork to me, and I’ve never been close to managing it before. I am over the moon with it.

    In my Champion Hurdle I will look to spend about £150 to £200 across the season, and the plan is just to cover my fancies, with the added fun of getting them all running for me. I made a three figure profit on the race this year, though that was never the plan, as in this race I just look to go £0.01 green. In The Stayers & Ryanair, I’m also only looking for £0.01 profit, and I only look to spend up to £100 across the season. I had a disaster in The Ryanair last year, I was strangely confident about my picks, and lost £248, with not a bean laid. It was f’cking brutal. Much more guarded this year, and I’m very strict with my stakes anyway.

    As I said, no hard and fast rule for other bets. For example, yesterday, Cause of Causes was a big loser for me in The Ultima, I had £40 roughly at 33’s, as he was a favourite of mine, and that was a big loser for me. Conversely, I only had a tenner each way combined on Holywell, as although a legend of a horse for me, I suspected he might just be gone at the game, and did mention on the thread that he would be a smaller bet.

    Taking my 2 recent threads in “Big Races”, I worry I look like a fud, when I put up 2 nonners, like Ballynagour & Dare to Endeavour in The Midlands National, but I want to shout from the rooftop that I haven’t lost much, and I only had a fiver on Ballynagour, and just less Dare to Endeavour. This would be in contrast to say, Another Hero, who I had (from memory) £30 to £40 on for The Welsh National, and he didn’t make it. I don’t mind losing £30 to £40 of my own money if I get a run, but I get angry with myself if they don’t make it.

    Labaik was a tenner each way at 40’s yesterday, that would be a massive bet for me in a Novice Hurdle, but The skybet offer was ridiculous for a horse I knew was decent, while I won just short of four figures from Tiger Roll, combined with firms and exchanges, so was a good day. I don’t like putting up stakes beforehand, but todays conventional bets will be for a lot less stakes (bar Cause of Causes who I have “a few quid on”), but the rest will be a few quid for fun, and will not be betting that much. My stakes will be lower the rest of the week now, and unless I’m spending winnings, I won’t have more than a tenner on a horse, bar maybe Taglietelle if he runs Martin Pipe, and my 2 in The Grand Annual. Sometimes a winner will look like a nice “lift”, but the one that springs to mind this year was Antony at 14’s at Ascot. Very pleased to put up a winner at that price, but in reality, I had the princely sum of £3 on it.

    I do “systems”, Mug 63’s, Exactas, as well, so the stakes can mount up quietly without you knowing, and I have to be strict. I can’t be more specific than that Judge, and I hope that explains a wee bit how I do it. It really is just on a race by race basis.

    #1292378
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    Dismal form continues.

    both peregrine run and irish roe well beaten.

    the annoying thing is I could have easily backed the winner of the fred winter and the bumper today but put myself off them to save myself for other bets.

    lesson is- need a bigger bankroll

    running total -£13 in running.

    #1292380
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34748

    No pay day for me this year either Judge.
    I’m already over it and moved on to next year now

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1292398
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    No pay day for me this year either Judge.
    I’m already over it and moved on to next year now

    :-(

    this is why i put a big bet on death duty before it began, as foresaw this situation when I’d be bust after two days :unsure:

    #1292407
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    Chasing now so going to throw another point on dedigout now he’s drifted out even further- 100-1

    1 point Dedigout 100-1

    #1292675
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    Ok adding some for today, it is cheltenham after all. Dedigout a non-runner.

    1.30 Politologue

    2.10 impulsive star

    2.50 josses hill

    3.30 west approach

    4.10 diamond king

    4.50 forge meadow

    5.30 balbir du mathan

    from now on all selections will be 1 unit per race and will all be settled at s.p.

    good luck all :good:

Viewing 13 posts - 35 through 47 (of 47 total)
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