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From now on I’m going to be doing a thread where I try and find horses that have seemingly been overhyped and overbet by the betting public.
Rather than suggesting laying them (which is certainly a possibility) I’ll try and find a horse to take them on with.
Watch this space.
Good luck with this, Alary is one that immediately springs to mind! I suppose many will be from the big yards or are well bred-Mullins is the main one.
Good luck with this, Alary is one that immediately springs to mind! I suppose many will be from the big yards or are well bred-Mullins is the main one.
Yes I might well be taking on Alary it certainly fits the bill
First two bets tomorrow are:
Politologue 13.30
I won’t be taking this one on it’s an absolute jumping machine. In fact I will be backing it imo it should be threes on.
Alary 15.15
This is a much less clear case, you could make an argument for sausalito sunrise on the odds, however I don’t think Alary is overrated here. If it was evs I would say so but it’s priced up at 3-1, On french races it’s top rated in this anyway, and apparently it’s improved with the tizzards.
Therefore the bets are
1 point politologue 13.30 Haydock
1 point Alary 15.15 Haydock
That was absolutely pathetic.
Should have stuck to my original plan of laying these overhyped hotpots.
Anyway I wouldn’t make much of a bookie.
running total
-£2
I think tomorrow the horse to take on is this identity thief in the irish arkle, the 2.30 at leopardstown
He jumped very poorly in his last race and was pulled up. He may have recovered from whatever was ailing him but do you really want to take around evs to find out?
I’m going to take a chance on bleu et rouge as he did me a favour by winning last time. He also jumped very badly but he had the excuse that it was his first start over fences.
What I find interesting is that they’ve put him in here rather than a softer race to build his conifdence. Hopefully he’ll jump a lot better in which case his engine could be too good for the rest of these in what looks quite frankly, like a very poor renewal.
1 point bleu et rouge 2.30 leopardstown.
That was massively annoying. what a comedy of errors race- shows how important jumping is.
Fav doesn’t get past the third fence and my one jumps even worse than it did first time up.
I think they need to put this bleu et rouge back over hurdles as it’s an atrocious jumper.
Just as well I had federer earlier.
running total -£3
Ok this is an obvious example of a horse you need to lay/take on
Soldier of action tomorrow in the 13.30 Musselburgh
never run before over hurdles and yet penciled in as the 13-8 fav on the tissue
seems far too short and opens up an excellent opportunity to back project bluebook against him
1 point project bluebook 13.30 musselburgh sat
I think it’s just fav to lay the overrated horses
soldier in action well beaten
ok running to a level stake it’s minus £4
I think a good example of my system was the first race at Punchestown today.
I know this is using hindsight but the favourite was significantly lower rated than the eventual winner on racing post ratings, yet the mullins/walsh factor ensured it went off at odds on while you got a tidy 7-1 on the highest rated horse in the field.
Should have put that race up
Ran well but no chance with the winner
can’t buy a winner at the mo
-£5 to a level stake
Selections:
1 point rickie fowler honda classic 6-1
1 point in the rough 3.15 exeter
1 point spookydooky 3.50 exeter
1 point tailors row 7.15 wolverhampton
Just on a horrendous run at the moment with the gee gees.
I might not be the best gambler in the world but you’d think even a blind squirrel would find a nut eventually. I must have had about 400 losers in a row
had spookydooky today and the money down for him looked sound when he travelled like a dream, just found a couple too strong in the home straight.
anyway running total is now -£8 with fowler still to come.
tomorrows selections are charli parcs 1.50 kempton (put up because i need a winner), capitaine 3.00 kempton and easy street 4.10 kempton
good luck me
adding join the clan 1 point at 18-1 3.40 chepstow
and 1 point at 8-1 lad of luck 5.20 chepstow
don’t know why i backed capitane, hate 1 dimensional front runners, and even backing the odds on charli parcs couldn’t stop my horrible run. (had that in a double with forza milan which won at chepstow, but irrelevant
)
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