Tails from the blackcountry II

[Blackcountry Kid]

Been a frustrating time since my last posting having my hopes raised for a potential investment only to find on the day they either didn’t meet my qualifying standards or had been withdrawn.However today I finally get a selection to put forward for your consideration.On a eight race Lingfield card I believe ARATUS in the sixth can bring home the money following a good second to Mount Athos last time out in a contest that’s working out well.For a 5yo the selection has little racing under his belt having some long absences the last being over a year during which wind surgery took place.Wasn’t surprising to find he needed his comeback run but the fact he went off favourite for that race did puzzle me.With limited experience on the a/w it’s interesting to note that he registered career high numbers last time and is taken to go one better this afternoon.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

‘You will become way less concerned what other people think of you when you realise how seldom they do’

David Foster Wallace

[Blackcountry Kid]

Just a brief posting to say ANCIENT TIMES e/w looks worth taking a chance on @ 6/1.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Found yesterday’s run rather disappointing but we soldier on with a horse that hasn’t seen the track in over a year.Not so many years ago one making his bow after such a long absence would be discarded as,probably needs the run,after scant inspection.However training methods have evolved and that’s no longer the case and I happen to think Godolphin’s DESERT ORDER providing he’s in reasonable shape is a intriguing contender despite so long off.In three maidens he ran 3rd to Epictetus on debut then 2nd to Arrest,btn shd,before opening his account in the Convivial Maiden Stakes (value £41,000) at York in August.This was supplemented with a successful nursery run a couple of months later when despite finding trouble came through to win rather more comfortably than the official margin might suggest under top weight in the process recording his best numbers to date.His present handicap mark looks a viable starting point before going on to better things ,perhaps one for Triptych’s tread over at Meydan?
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Things not going the way I hoped in this final stretch but all in all it hasn’t been a bad year so can’t really complain.All the money since betting opened on the feature sprint up at Newcastle has been for Coachello however I believe he can be opposed on two counts.To my mind the distance & pace combination make him suspect in these small field races and I would rather take my chance with BIELSA who ran a terrific race last time out to Brewing,a horse who looks to be very much on the up,registering numbers which compare favourably with the Listed Wentworth Stakes run earlier on the same card.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

As we come to the year end although there’s some good a/w action in the UK my thoughts always go to sunnier climes and Meydan.In the dying embers of 2023 I’m still hoping to pick a pocket or two of the bookies and PROBE looks an interesting individual to possibly do so.Although this is a higher grade that his recent win the selection being put forward for your consideration has run & won at this level on turf so not expecting the rise in class to be a problem.The outside berth can be a insurmountable obstacle but the field size negates this in my opinion.
Before I sign off may I send one and all GOOD WISHES & SEASONS GREETINGS to you and your loved ones.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

There’s every reason to believe that CLEARPOINNT is going to prove much better on a synthetic surface than turf,where quite highly tried on different underfoot conditions.Although this gelding stays 6f the style of running adopted suggests he would always do better at the minimum trip.A foaling date of early April points very likely to improvement to come as does his limited experience.It would be unfair for me not to point out his lack of success in this grade with two being on turf and the third at Kempton over 6f when allotted the outside berth of 12 with the selection fading inside the final furlong after probably setting too strong a pace.However the return to 5f will be in his favour but things are slightly complicated with Fine Wine being in the field.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Those of you that have read my scribblings for a while may have seen me mention the late Clive Holt who’s books I can honestly say changed my life.Although my selection method is loosely based on the advice learned from reading his publications the number of bets thrown up is always a limiting factor.So after rereading them I’ve decided to incorporate an idea which will increase activity as well giving me more of an interest during the nation hunt season beside hopefully proving profitable.It’s this second process which gives todays runner over at Leopardstown in the shape of the Mullins trained FACILE VEGA.The beauty of this second selection method is in that it throws up bets all year round and can thus provide runners when my qualifying ‘number’ filters haven’t been able to endorse a horse.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

From the same Fineform idea as yesterday and I know I have missed the first of the selections
At Chepstow we have the following
JACKPOT D’ATHOU & ROCKING MAN
At Kempton
BOOTHILL
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Although it’s not the ‘dream start’ I was hoping for with the Fineform idea I presented a few days ago but I believe it’s worth continuing the experiment for the coming year as previous results have indicated a positive outlook.
Today at Newcastle two are put forward to watch.
INVERLOCHY & FILLY ONE
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

It’s the Fineform idea that once again provides the action today with it pointing to Newbury’s second and the Nicky Henderson trained JERIKO DU REPONET to continue the geldings good run.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

I must admit the Fineform idea is throwing up more selections than anticipated but at present putting than down to the time of year and the good meetings/prize money available.However have one very much on the up and could be one to watch for the coming turf season although the selection being put forward for your consideration has yet to run on anything other than a synthetic surface.Unraced as a juvenile BREWING completed a hat trick of wins in lower grade races two being novice events and the last a handicap off a mark of 83 over 6f & 7f.This gelding then top and tailed ’23 making his seasonal debut early April at 8f which seems to have been stretching his stamina before returning late in the year for an eye catching performance over today’s course and distance registering career high numbers with something in hand.Although this is harder I’m expecting this lightly raced individual to show continued improvement.
The Fineform idea today throws up three horses to continue the experiment apace …
Cheltenham STAGE STAR & BOB OLINGER
Newcastle TO CATCH A THIEF
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

I’m going to be taking some time away to recharge the batteries.However I shall continue to monitor the experiment I recently started and maybe as results come in modify it slightly to suit the most profitable way of operation.
This may also be an opportune moment to update all as regard current positions
This thread where all returns are are calculated to a £1 win stake
to 31/12/23 stakes £298 ….. returns £257.50 so still some ground to make up
Personally in 2023 I returned a 28.1% profit on investments which suffered during a mixed December.
good luck to all
p s Happy & prosperous New Year to you & your loved ones.

[Blackcountry Kid]

Decided this would be an opportune time to resume my scribblings and bring all up to date with what’s happened in the couple of months I’ve been away.Although not posted I’ve continued monitoring the FineForm idea even investing on two or three,successfully,and can report to date enough encouragement to continue with it.Up to now there’s been 43 qualifiers and 17 winners with a small profit made to sp.Perhaps this is what finally tipped them over the edge as I can also report one of my bookies has withdrawn all ‘perks’ ie odds boosts & best odds guaranteed etc.You would have thought they should be grateful for punters here showing them where the vulnerabilities lie within their trading books but can’t please everyone.
Hope to post a selection or two between now and Cheltenham as I shall be attending Dunstall Park on Saturday for their biggest meeting of the year.
Nothing much else to say except I’m hoping,NO,aiming to eliminate the deficit this thread showed at the end of last year over the 2024 season.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Bit on the cold side but looks a fine day for my local course to hold it’s most high profile meeting.Disappointed that once again the tracks have bowed,no grovelled,to tv and headed the card with the best races.If I understand things correctly the recent addition of named ‘Premier’ meetings will have affected the timings too.Just another case of the powers that be refusing to bite the bullet and make the hard decisions that are called for if horse racing is to flourish and attract the people,sponsors & racegoers,it needs to do so.Enough of my opinions for now as you wish to read of my selections.Although the opener is the most interesting the small field makes it unappealing as tactics more than anything are likely to have the last word here and it’s not at all obvious how the race will unfold.The Lincoln trial on the other hand makes a great deal of appeal as the pace will be sound and recent form has been a guide to the likely outcome.So putting forward for your consideration KING’S CODE e/w who’s been on a real roll of late but still reasonably weighted since starting this run of good form with the only blip being over 10f which probably stretches his stamina.
Yesterday also placed a ante post Cheltenham bet on BOTTLER’SECRET e/w @ 33/1 (Triumph Hurdle) taking advantage of the nrnb offered by bookmakers.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

With my last posting being a non runner for Cheltenham looks very likely for me this years Festival will be a blank as nothing appeals at present.However I will put forward for your consideration on the Chelmsford polytrack tonight MICK’S SPIRIT who’s been on a roll of late and impressed me with his numbers last time.Looks to be best when his races are run at a fair pace and pretty sure he’s going to get that even if he doesn’t have to do so himself as he’s done in the past.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Expected more from yesterday’s selection but we carry on with WATER OF LEITH in my local courses opener this evening.Very much looking forward to Championship Day on the a/w as there’s one particular horse I’m very much looking forward to seeing providing he runs.This gelding has left all previous form behind while posting progressive numbers and looks to have more to offer.
good luck to all

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