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I must say that I do look forward to this weekend with Longchamp thrown into the mix of our usual fare although I find the french card for Saturday somewhat unbalanced compared to the Sunday one.Despite the multiple cards offering up there wares I’ve actually found it to be rather bare for potential investments unlike the Cambridgeshire which was brimming over with potential selections making it impossible to nail down any one horse so have decided to give it a pass but was very taken by Merlin the Wizard among the numerous candidates but will watch what unfolds without burdening the gelding with my money.I did however find an interesting candidate to put forward for your consideration who if he follows the pattern set out as a juvenile will relish the underfoot conditions.This colt following placed efforts at 6f gained a trio of successive wins at this time of year in a Hamilton maiden,a Windsor novice event and over the channel when taking a Longchamp Listed contest all over the minimum trip posting progressive Racing Post rating each time and good numbers for that final juvenile outing.PROVERB has been out of sorts since then but showed a return last time out when a closing 5th at York producing numbers only bettered by that Listed win in france.I will be sorely disappointed if he can’t follow up that run with another of equal merit and at least get into the frame.
good luck to allFirst I think a apology is in order for the absolutely abysmal running of Proverb last weekend.
Although we are now getting into the tail end of the turf campaign there’s still much to come besides the a/w tracks which for me will provide the action until Meydan kicks into action in the new year.However it’s to Ascot’s opener I go for the first of the selections being put forward for your consideration and also a theme I’ve been very vocal on lately namely the difference between 5f & 6f sprints.Once again in my opinion we have a out and out 5f sprinter being asked to run over trips that really don’t make the best of her abilities.While it’s not surprising to find such horses running well even winning over these longer trips it fails in them living up to their full potential as is the case with RAGE OF BAMBY e/w who contests the Rous Stakes.Having run well even winning over 6f & 7f the numbers recorded in these races just don’t compare to the ones produced in her one and only try at the minimum trip.Under top weight was only just pipped on the post in a York handicap registering career high numbers in the process.Following a run over 6f last time she’s back to what I believe is the best distance and expect a good showing with connections now hopefully realising what’s needed to fulfil her latent talent.For my second pick of the day we go to my local track for CHANGE SINGS e/w who may also have been campaigned over too far although things are slightly more complicated due to the switch in surfaces.However what’s not in any doubt is the drop to 6f and to the a/w registered career high numbers and to me looks overpriced.
good luck to allI shall make this brief due to the time lost with my internet going down and not being able to post much earlier.
Putting forward the progressive URBAN OUTING e/w for your consideration who’s improved stepping up in distance after registering career high numbers when last seen.
good luck to allReturning to York for today’s selection and putting forward for your consideration a gelding by flat standards would be thought of a veteran but still capable of decent form especially on a surface he’s only been allowed to run on once before at which time CERTAIN LAD e/w produced numbers that compare well with the best he’s registered during his career.Although this gelding isn’t the force of old under these conditions I believe he’s a live chance of at least hitting the frame.
good luck to allApologies a bit rushed this morning so shall just put forward for your consideration VINTAGE CLARETS for the Catterick Dash.
good luck to allFirst of all I would like to thank those very nice bookmakers for extending the price of Saturdays selection beyond anything I could have believed with best odds guaranteed ensuring the enhanced SP being paid.
When I started investing on horses (coughs) years ago course bookies,who set the SP,did all the calculations for the odds as mental arithmetic and supplemented this with their own judgement as regard any particular horses chance using experience.Now especially with the coming of the likes of Betfair I think it’s fair to say off course betting has a far greater influence on odds than trackside punters or bookmaker reps.Today’s bookies are run by accountants and algorithms using spreadsheets & logic.
This is perhaps an area for the ordinary punter to exploit providing they are prepared to think outside the box and tackle the information overload in different ways and come up with something original.
Personally I took up this challenge with Tails from the blackcountry on RaceCaller over a decade ago and have continued to refine this work here and I now believe there’s a workable process in place.As I have pointed out previously it will no doubt need further work in the future but for now I’m happy.
good luck to allPutting forward for your consideration a gelding who I wouldn’t blame anyone for swerving today given his reluctance away from the gates last time but whatever your opinion there’s no doubting MUSTAZEED has latent ability which eventually showed itself when just failing to snatch a place.Breaking on anything like level terms and I believe this race is his for the taking having registered some of his best numbers when last seen on similar ground and trip.
good luck to allComing to the final furlong honestly believed we had yesterdays race in the bag but the eyes deceived the head and what was expected became the unexpected and however much we wish that’s racing and have to learn to live with it.
Now as we come to the concluding meetings of the turf season,assuming they don’t get washed away,I thought this might be a good time for me to update readers of this thread on the running total.
Since I started here on TRF all bets put forward have been calculated to a £1 win @ SP
stakes £276 …… returns £248.60
Personally I’ve enjoyed a very good year to date having returned a 40.2% profit on bets struck.
I don’t anticipate many more bets between now and the year end but will continue to search for opportunities and of course they will be put forward here for your consideration.
good luck to allIt’s off to sunny California for a selection at the Breeders Cup but sorry if you want to watch it live it’s going to be a late night.I’m going to take a chance on GUNITE e/w to make a race of it with the warm favourite.
good luck to allAlthough he hasn’t had a winner recently James Tate’s horses are running well putting up the performances expected of them however I’m putting forward MOUNT ATHOS for your consideration to get the trainer and horse back into the winners enclosure.Unraced as a juvenile the selection came to my notice on his handicap debut when sweeping aside his rivals in a class 4 contest over today’s course & distance with Doyle doing the steering.Wasn’t seen again until the following year when again under Doyle he made all to win here at the same trip but this time in a class 2 race both times putting up quite good sectionals for the final 3f furlongs.Back at the same track/trip this afternoon with Doyle in the saddle expecting him to see him win.When last seen at the start of Sept he returned good numbers which add to his case before being gelded.
good luck to allGetting more chances on the a/w than I expected with the final Doncaster meeting being transferred to Newcastle at the weekend.However going for a mare who debuts on the a/w tonight but an improving record as she’s gone up in trip leads me to believe this first attempt at 16f won’t be beyond her capabilities.Registering career best numbers last time makes DEVINE COMEDY a player here in my opinion.
good luck to allFelt a bit unlucky with the last selection as she just didn’t have that instant acceleration which to my mind cost her the race but one to be considered for future engagements.Although ALLIGATOR ALLEY has run on various surfaces I’m of the belief that this gelding runs best on tapeta which he returns to today and expecting a much improved showing than when last seen at Haydock.
good luck to allWith a very short priced favourite it’s opened the door for some juicy each way prices in the Listed Wentworth Stakes and I’m going to nail my colours to the mast in favour of one of the outsiders who to me looks overpriced and expect to do better than her odds would suggest.SECRET ANGEL e/w has only ever run on an artificial surface once following a very promising debut in the Nell Gwyn.However I believe this run took connections down the wrong path in thinking that 7f was the way forward.Following that Newmarket contest she next went to Lingfield for a very hot Gp3 Chartwell where taking on her elders lost out only in the final furlong.Hoping this switch to the a/w will show her to be somewhat better than so far seen and perhaps even a try at the minimum trip during the a/w season wouldn’t come amiss.
good luck to allDoing ok until she became the filling in a sandwich after which Secret Angel had no chance but I do think she’s worth taking another look at in the future especially down in trip.Although we haven’t had a lot of rain it’s fairly windy here and hoping these winds don’t cause any kind of problem leading to tonight’s fixture being cancelled.Gelded then brought over the channel at the start of this year ALL THE KING’S MEN looks to have every chance of enhancing his record under his new handler at Dunstall Park this evening following a four and a half month lay off then returning late last moth to record career high numbers when just touched off on the line and now can make amends.The only real blip on his record when last of twelve at Haydock can be forgiven following the vets report.
good luck to allWhile a rider is under a obligation to do his/her upmost to achieve the best possible placing for their ride I do sometimes wonder if they have connections tearing their hair out as the horse bounds clear by many lengths giving the handicapper every reason to raise the horses mark much higher than allowing it to win by a reduced margin once the race is in the bag thus making the said handicapper have to guess/estimate how much the horse has in hand rather than put it on a plate for him which also,in my opinion,benefits the horse in question.
With Lingfield providing a card of poor low class contests in general sandwiching a class 3 handicap and a couple of Listed events it’s to the Golden Rose Stakes that I turn for a George Boughey filly to outrun her odds.Putting forward for your consideration KINTA e/w who only returned to the track relatively recently following almost a year on the sidelines.Successful in two novice contests as a juvenile was next seen running Lezoo close in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot in July before rather blotting her copybook the following month when failing to turn up in the Lowther.Made her seasonal bow in Sept in a 7f Chelmsford handicap with it looking too far and needing the run.Showed the benefit of that pipe opener just a week later at headquaters when winning a Premier Fillies handicap with a bit more in hand I believe than the official margin would suggest.Have invested each way @ 14/1 (bog) which to me looks too long.
good luck to allDon’t think I can pass up the opportunity to say a very big thank you to bookies for such rewarding odds on Saturdays selection,thought I had real value at my price but was absolutely astounded when the race came round and we were so close to actually collecting in full.
Putting forward for your consideration this evening a ex Godolphin inmate who I think you can say hasn’t seen the track much since making his handicap debut on the a/w in early ’22 on his one and only 3yo run.There was then over a years absence from the track during which time he changed handlers for 60,000 gns and underwent wind surgery before appearing at Newcastle off his present mark and quite simply ‘running a blinder’ only to be denied a nose,short head and head.In my book SYMBOL OF LIGHT e/w can be forgiven his last run on account of the ground & trip and expecting a somewhat better showing returned to the a/w.
good luck to all
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